Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th Jan

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Hospital admissions flatlining is good news. The average time between symptoms and hospitalisation is about a week, but there's a lot of variation between people, with some going to hospital very quickly, or only being tested on admission. We know that cases were rising steeply until about a week ago, so flatlining admissions is exactly what we'd expect to see if cases were now starting to decline.

Why do they think the peak is delayed?

And also if you’ve got 10,000 people in hospital across 2 areas say, each with a capacity of 6,000, surely that is sort of better than having 7,500 in one area, even though it’s more people overall. Though I know some capacity is movable. But you see my point.

@ATieLikeRichardGere

Why do they think the peak is delayed?

And also if you’ve got 10,000 people in hospital across 2 areas say, each with a capacity of 6,000, surely that is sort of better than having 7,500 in one area, even though it’s more people overall. Though I know some capacity is movable. But you see my point.

It says because cases aren't coming down as fast as they'd hoped, based on the first wave. There also seems to be a suggestion that it isn't as much about Christmas mixing as people assumed, which means it isn't falling as the effects of that stop being as visible. I'm still reliant on a live feed summary, though, so I'm not speaking from a place of great knowledge or insight!

@MRex

It's going in the right direction overall, but some nice drops are being counterbalanced by rises in other areas so it's patchy, which is good for most of us but isn't a good sign for the hospital pressures easing soon.

But are we not looking at two different timeframes with regional cases? Ie 5 days prior? Which is when cases were rising so hopefully in 3 days we’ll see more dropping soon

I can believe that the effect of Christmas mixing isn't so great relative to the amount of transmission eg in schools - stats released today show that one London borough only had 17% attendance in the last week of term! That's a lot off self-isolating because of cases.

Obviously schools contributing less now (although some have well over 50% of children in still) but there will be the effect of non-SE primaries going back for one day on Mon 4th.

Also nurseries, workplaces. All with the new variant in greater or lesser proportions (depending on area).

I am not keeping up too well so apologies of this has already made it here but attendance at schools was dreadful just before Christmas, especially in new variant areas:

schoolsweek.co.uk/pupil-absence-due-to-school-closures-almost-trebled-in-last-week-of-term/

The table of cases in councils in England is updated with the latest data on www.covidmessenger.com

My cautious optimism continues - both Kent and Essex (the first counties hit with the new variant) seem to have topped out and are registering week-over-week falls in many of their councils for the third day running.

For those not familiar with the table, click the county column on the table on the homepage (www.covidmessenger.com) to sort by county and scroll through to see the green/red (which indicates falling/rising cases week-over-week respectively).

Mine is still going up and up littleowl

Thank you @littleowl1, fingers crossed for my native Essex--only council areas still rising were the last to join tier 4- Colchester and Tendring (as well as Uttlesford, showing a fall 🤞🏻)

@Piggywaspushed
Ours is still going up, but less quickly, which is a start anyway!

Mine is also going up and up. As is Devon. I suspect the worst is yet to come for the SW?

I am a bit despairing about behaviour/ traffic/ school attendance in my area.

Apparently, my village was at 1159 cases per 100k last week.

Janssen/Johnson and Johnson is in the “final stages” of data analysis for its phase 3 trial and will announce results very soon. www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/jpm-j-j-hopes-to-share-phase-3-coronavirus-vaccine-data-very-soon-ceo-says

(Single dose vaccine, only requires fridge temperature storage, UK has ordered 30 million doses, EU has ordered 400 million doses).

Just to add to the vaccine discussion - 145k per day is good IMHO,

NI first and deputy first minister had their briefing this afternoon and discussed potential hospital resource sharing with ROI if ROI requires it, DFM strongly supports teachers being vaccinated as a priority although recognises that’s not JCVI recommendations (live stream reporting from BBC if anyone wants a look www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-northern-ireland-55637827 )

And the below article shows nearly all NI GP practices (321 out of 336) have started vaccinations, although the supplies are slow

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-55638057

It's going in the right direction overall, but some nice drops are being counterbalanced by rises in other areas so it's patchy, which is good for most of us but isn't a good sign for the hospital pressures easing soon

I'm somewhat hopeful that even in low previous incidence areas where tier 4 restrictions are not enough against the new variant, the more vulnerable people will be still less likely to catch it due to taking more personal precautions than while the increase in case was less acknowledged/noticed and it was christmas.

ie I'm hopeful some of the distribution of cases in the areas further from the south east is better for hospitalisations and deaths.

I am in a new variant area and going up. Sorry but feeling, as I said, despair.

@Quarantino

Mine is also going up and up. As is Devon. I suspect the worst is yet to come for the SW?

I think it is. Just heard on the local news that Newquay now has numbers like parts of London.

My cautious optimism continues - both Kent and Essex (the first counties hit with the new variant) seem to have topped out and are registering week-over-week falls in many of their councils for the third day running.

I live in one of the worst-affected parts of Essex. I've been tracking the rate locally on the interactive Covid map which lets you zoom in to town level. My town was at 1800 for two days running between Christmas and New Year but has been below 900 for two days in a row now, so I am also hopeful we've seen the worst.

@sirfredfredgeorge - the pattern in different regions varies at the moment. Good news overall for London and SE isn't necessarily reflected yet in areas that locked down a little later.

I’m cautiously optimistic about greater Manchester. Although it’s still increasing in most boroughs, the rate of increase seems to have really slowed and hasn’t reached the stratospheric levels that Liverpool has seen. Feeling that tier 3, then tier 4 all came at the right time to prevent that (although appreciate things could change).
Interestingly the boroughs with the lowest rates are those that had long sustained high rates over the summer and autumn (eg Oldham and Bolton) whereas the boroughs that were previously low (Trafford, Wigan) are the highest now

Re. Vaccines, is it possible some of them will work with different variants where others don’t? And if someone has the type of vaccine that doesn’t work with a certain variant (I’m thinking longer term now eg next winter), can they be given another type of vaccine on top of the one they’ve had?

@Reastie There's no reason not to give another vaccine to someone who's had a different one previously. We give people new flu vaccines every year. They seem to think that all the vaccines are unlikely to be completely ineffective against the new strain, but some may become a bit less effective. So yes I imagine they might well invite those who've been given one of the less effective vaccines to have another one in time. I reckon they may also do this for those who are offered the Oxford vaccine first, as 70% protection is just not as good as 95% is it? But imagine they'll not worry about that until after everyone's been given one vaccine at least.

Re. Vaccines, is it possible some of them will work with different variants where others don’t?
Yes. It could be that any specific vaccine works better/ worse than trials showed, it could be that specific vaccines struggle with a variant, or it could be that they all spike vaccines or all protein vaccines don't work on a new variant. At the same time, it could be that most of them keep working just fine.

And if someone has the type of vaccine that doesn’t work with a certain variant (I’m thinking longer term now eg next winter), can they be given another type of vaccine on top of the one they’ve had?
That's being tested. There's no reason why they couldn't work, but might be that a different vaccine type needs to be a full course rather than a booster.

I had been vaguely expecting the Oxford AZ to be updated for the South Africa variant for everyone's booster, but cage find anything to show that's being tested yet.

That’s great, thank you so much. I ponder these things but never know enough science.

Thanks for all the great info here, regular lurker occasional poster.

@DinosaurTrain thank you for your link back on the other thread. I'm mighty relieved that the R rate for my local area has gone down considerably.