Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th Jan

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@ancientgran

There doesn't seem to be such a big variation in rates, nowhere has double the rate of other areas. Presumably some areas are targetting other groups. Or am I missing something.

Oh they are just talking about it on BBC.

I suspect you’d have to drill down to district levels. I know my very local area says that they are moving down to the over 70s, as all the over 80s and care homes apparently done, but that’s a much higher % than the rest of the north west looking at that map.

Dashbosrd has updated now

Thanks ceeveebee, I'm just wondering as DH will be 75 in March and it will be a relief when he gets it, he's male, BAME, overweight, disabled, diabetic and a heavy smoker since childhood. He reckons someone created the virus specifically to target him and although he may be paranoid he does seem at high risk.

On a different note - Zoe shows that the drop in COVID cases has slowed down. We used to see 7.5% drops in daily transmission rates - we are now down to 4.5%. The good news is it is still a statistically significant drop, the bad news is the Christmas period slowdown (Tier 4 + school closures) might have been more effective at reducing transmission than the "national lockdown" with "one exercise a day - stay local" rules

Don’t forget most of manufacturing shuts down for Christmas too - a lot of factories were shut for 2 weeks so it wasn’t just tier 4 plus closed schools...

London hospital admissions continue on their way down. Looks like Jan 6th with the horrible number of 977 was indeed the peak.

The numbers may still go up and down but I hope they will no longer pass the 900 mark.

Hospital admissions for whole of England might have peaked on Jan 12th although it is still a bit early to tell.

@wintertravel1980

London hospital admissions continue on their way down. Looks like Jan 6th with the horrible number of 977 was indeed the peak.

The numbers may still go up and down but I hope they will no longer pass the 900 mark.

Hospital admissions for whole of England might have peaked on Jan 12th although it is still a bit early to tell.

That's not necessarily a good thing - admissions might be dropping because they've had to up the admission threshold due to lack of beds.

@TheDinosaurTrain good point on manufacturing - also many construction sites, builders merchants, plumbers/electricians will be closed/emergencies only over this time, and call centres etc. on skeleton staff, which will have had an impact

Anyone watching press conf? Did Dr Hopkins just say:

1. if the vaccine prevents transmission well, they might prioritise occupations most likely to spread
2. if not, they’ll focus on those at risk of hospitalisation so carrying down the age groups ? How long will it take them to work this out ?

Piggy I agree re rushing in to get school open, now the unions have challenged the gov to make sure its safe, I don't think that sector can be pushed around as easily.. Hopefully.

Why oh why do they constantly say vaccines 'in their arms'

It is a new buzzphrase . We all know where a vaccine goes ! (usually...)

On the Hopkins front, every answer she give is really scripted and yet really really vague.

It is the new buzz, jabs in arms..

The table of councils on the www.covidmessenger.com homepage is updated with today's data release.

For anyone who missed my earlier post, I have produced charts of hospital cases and published in the Latest Analysis section here:

www.covidmessenger.com/hospital-cases-v1/

This is part of a wider hospital data analysis I have been doing over recent days - I will have more charts to add tomorrow around lunchtime. The charts are interactive so you can float your mouse/finger over the chart to see the individual data points.

I am going to update them as often as new data released.

I feel it will be really wonderful when we see the hospital cases start to fall. And I am really, really hoping that will be soon.

278 councils now with week on week fall in cases comparing the 7 days to 13 Jan with the week to 6 Jan.

England 7 day average for cases at just under 42000 as compared with just under 51000 to 6th Jan

For PCR tests only positivity, within pillar 2, 314 councils have a week on week fall.

And over 4 million first jabs now done.

I can't seem to scroll across the way on your covid site any more littleowl so I can't see rankings.

@QueenStromba do we not have nightingale hospitals on standby for that situation. I don’t think we’re at the point of denying care , at least I hope not

@ancintgran my parents are on the south coast also in a town like that. My mum is 80 in a fortnight but no news of the vaccine yet , I would also be interested in a council by council report but there are lots of care homes in the area so i imagine the over 80s take longer.

Return to work will also be a factor in the slower decrease.

@TheDinosaurTrain

On a different note - Zoe shows that the drop in COVID cases has slowed down. We used to see 7.5% drops in daily transmission rates - we are now down to 4.5%. The good news is it is still a statistically significant drop, the bad news is the Christmas period slowdown (Tier 4 + school closures) might have been more effective at reducing transmission than the "national lockdown" with "one exercise a day - stay local" rules

Don’t forget most of manufacturing shuts down for Christmas too - a lot of factories were shut for 2 weeks so it wasn’t just tier 4 plus closed schools...

This is a really good point - and other sectors too. E.g. my brother is an electrician who works on both big sites and domestically and he had between Christmas and New Year off as no one tends to book in domestic work then and the big sites he was on also shut. Anecdotally, that is not a Covid-safe workplace, whatever the site manager would say, but it's back in full swing now.

At the Health Select Committee last week Simon Stephens did say that they were aiming to start reporting vaccination numbers at council level soon - inference being unlikely before end of this current week. I presume more likely to be at upper tier council level initially.

@Notmulan I have had a look at my local healthcare trust and it confirmed what I thought, they say we have an older than average population so it is taking a bit longer but they will be there soon. So fingers crossed. I suppose it doesn't really matter why it is taking a bit longer but it is nice to understand it.

Thanks boys3 I will look out for that.

Re Christmas; the construction/ engineering/ architecture industries tend to close or at least go v v slow for 2 weeks over Xmas in normal years.

Dh said many took extra time off before in order to self isolate etc.

That's not necessarily a good thing - admissions might be dropping because they've had to up the admission threshold due to lack of beds.

I assume we would have heard if London NHS had introduced rationing of hospital beds. This was on the cards during the first wave and made it all over the news.

Another potential unexpected positive development is the flattening of London deaths:

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths?areaType=region&areaName=London

Of course, the most recent numbers are incomplete but in December even the incomplete curve showed very clear steady growth. Now it looks like the increase might have slowed down and, in fact, we might have reached a plateau.

Hi there, I mainly just read, but decided to come out of the shadows and join the discussion.

Do we think deaths might have peaked on 11/12? I know there'll be more added as time goes on, but I think these two days have been highest for a while now.

@littleowl1 your barometer is very heartening indeed! Really cheered me to see that today and that my area is finally going down (not much at all, but at least the right direction!)

@Witchend thank you. I am shielding so can't take on too much of others stuff at the moment anyway, also struggling with my chronic illness. Luckily our congregation are very kind and understanding.

Do we think deaths might have peaked on 11/12?

I think it is a bit too early to say. We have got around 40,000 people in hospitals (the dashboard shows 37,475 but this number is as of Jan 14th) and, unfortunately, some of those patients will not make it.

Generally, I think there may be quite a long tail of deaths even when infections go down:(. It is hard to say whether we will pass the 1,041 number we saw on 11/01. I am afraid it is not impossible although, of course, I really want to hope for the best.