Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th Jan

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@wintertravel1980

That's not necessarily a good thing - admissions might be dropping because they've had to up the admission threshold due to lack of beds.

I assume we would have heard if London NHS had introduced rationing of hospital beds. This was on the cards during the first wave and made it all over the news.

Another potential unexpected positive development is the flattening of London deaths:

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths?areaType=region&areaName=London

Of course, the most recent numbers are incomplete but in December even the incomplete curve showed very clear steady growth. Now it looks like the increase might have slowed down and, in fact, we might have reached a plateau.

Of course they're rationing care - they've got ambulances queuing up for hours outside A&E. Who gets admitted is very different when a hospital has a hundred empty beds versus when they have two empty beds (as my friend's large London trust did at one point last week).

I’m just trying to make sense of the hospital figure so we had highest admissions on the 14th? Which meant most likely testing positive on the 4th of jan? Was that the same as the peak or suggesting something different ?

I think it does make sense unless Christmas lag skewed results

I think it's a regional picture for timescales. We worked out the cases peak driven by London/SE as 18th (last day shopping) + 5 days to incubate and infect household + 5 days to incubate, so 28th; it was actually 30th (+2 days to get to a test). Christmas cases gave an extra peak of cases on 7th with more in Midlands / North too (25th/26th + 5 + 5 = 4th, + 2/3 to get to a test).

Adding 10 days to 28th would make peak hospitalisation likely to be 7th in London (exact match 7th), SE (6th) and 14th in Midlands (no, looks like 12th) / NW (13th) / NE (11th but slow burn to 16th - were they allowed 5 days mixing?). Cases weren't able to get out of control there, but still uncomfortably high, with hospital beds already full of patients from the Oct/Nov wave and taking some patients from the south too.

Good news, the increase looks to have gone. Bad news, the hospitals are full and even if new intake cases are going down there is nowhere to put them because the previous cases are still in hospital. I believe we had found a median 4-10 days from hospitalisation to death or going home. So the nightmare bed shortage and awful death rates will not really start to ease until 24th January at the earliest. It will then carry on being really crowded in hospitals through February.

This idea of opening shops and schools in March, I doubt it. Late March maybe.

DD2 breaks up for Easter on 26th March for 3 weeks - I think they will wait until after the Easter holidays to reopen schools as there will still be too many people in hospital then but hopefully going down.

In greater Manchester hospitalisations aren't expected to peak until the 23/24 jan. This came from our local trust.

Presumably the peak of hospitalisations would be x days (perhaps 10?) from the peak of cases. For most of Greater Manchester that has only just happened as only starting to decrease from specimen date of about 12th/13th Jan. So 23rd/24th makes sense
Lancashire is still increasing so their peak hospitalisations might be later?

Alder Hey (the children’s hospital in Liverpool) have started taking in adult covid patients because they have CPAP machines and oxygen and the adult hospitals are bursting at the seams.

Our local hospital started taking adults onto the children's wards a couple of weeks ago. My friend in Paeds said she hadn't worked with adults for 10 years, and some of the nurses never, but there was space because the rate of children's respiratory viruses is very low and there's no planned surgeries.

Not sure if you guys have seen this...

Sorry but for those of us non scientists: that's bad news, yes?

@JanuaryChill potentially very bad. I haven't watched the video (two hours long) but they took blood from 44 people who had covid and put the new South African virus in it. In 21 cases, the covid-antibodies in the blood didn't recognise or attack the new virus.

Immunity is more complicated than just antibodies. But this is suggestive that the new strain will get around immunity from the old one in up to half of people. So up to half can catch it again. Since vaccination triggers a similar immune response, it may mean that the vaccine is much less effective.

As I say, haven't watched the video, and it's not my area of expertise. But, on the face of it, worrying.

Would welcome views from those who actually understand this stuff.

Also a non-scientist but from what I can gather it's not great news.

Not terrible/horrifying either though (if that helps?)

We have to remember this is not yet reviewed but if it holds up then it suggests that the vaccine will be less effective against the SA variant.

Not ineffective, just less effective.

Scientists please correct me if I'm wrong!

Labs are currently testing vaccines against the new variants and apparently we should know the actual impact for the UK variant any day now and the SA variant in 3-4 days.

Probably best waiting for that before being too worried.

My local trust has said today they're expecting the peak in about a week to ten days, but until yesterday we were still rising in numbers of cases so guess that makes sense. They are really overwhelmed :(

Has any similar investigation been done with the UK variant?
Because I thought it had some similarities to the SA one, so might have significant implications for us.

@umpteennamechanges so far I've found running around in circles, screaming, and panicking a good expectation-management strategy for covid news.

But, yes, hopefully we should have some evidence either way shortly.

so far I've found running around in circles, screaming, and panicking a good expectation-management strategy for covid news
Interesting, I find hiding my head under the duvet and shaking works best. Someone should run a trial.

As an aside, was reading a Twitter thread about this and someone had a typo that was talking about “gnome sequencing” and that cheered me up.

I don’t have anything to add to the understanding above. What I would say is that recent studies on immunity in general, though not for this variant, have been pretty positive in the sense that they are showing immunity working as you would expect. In this case over half of the samples did have antibodies recognising the virus, and for the remainder we can hope that T cells would still be worth something.

I’m glad they are building that vaccine factory though.

@Motorina Whereas this is my strategy...

Gnome sequencing

Yes my next question was going to be what about T cells....

Here is some evidence for Pfizer and B117 mobile.twitter.com/GuptaR_lab/status/1351181780804636675

In 21 cases, the covid-antibodies in the blood didn't recognise or attack the new virus

The covalascent plasma therapy was suspended as being useless wasn't it? Which implies that antibodies aren't particularly successful at attacking the virus in this simplistic way anyway doesn't it?

Just saw same and came post.

mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1351228542143651840

Not good at all. Much worse than most of us originally expected. Not only does it reduce the immune response for vast majority (caveat-T cells not tested here), but it is complete immune escape for about 50% of people tested.

complete Still pre-print so not yet peer reviewed.

I don’t expect the variant first discovered in the U.K. (501.v1) to be such a problem, because although it shares the 501 mutation, it does not have the 484 mutation ( which is already a known important epitope ie place for antibodies to grab on to).

I do think it quite likely the variant first discovered in Brazil (501.v3) shares the ability of variant first discovered in SA (501.v2) to evade immune response.

@sirfredfredgeorge really great point