Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th Jan

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Anecdotally it feels like people are being admitted more readily now but I'm not sure if that's perception or reality!

I was told in December by a Covid ward anaesthetist that when patients are admitted now they're "really ill."

She seemed to be saying that they now know how to manage it better at home and who to admit.

At that point in our area one of the 3 wards for Covid was being used so that all normal hospital service could resume. That was in the NE so they've had a pretty constant stream of patients coming in. Lockdown came at a good time for the NE. Remaining in t3 was v important.

In fact, if you look at the NE data there was a big spike in the autumn the south didn't get. That's why they created an unofficial 3.5 tier in September. The hospitals wouldn't have coped otherwise.

In a way I feel the south was disadvantaged by relatively low rates of both cases and admissions till December. They didn't see it coming or act quickly enough.

Thank you for your work @littleowl1

I guess it might be helpful to look at how hospitalisations compare against deaths - how many hospitalisations per death, as it were.

Also I did read an interesting discussion on the US noting that first wave hospitalisations actually were undercounted there not so much because of testing issues but because their healthcare system isn’t centralised and the systems for collating this sort of thing fell short, if I understood well. I imagine this would be less of an issue in the UK because of how the NHS works but it was something I had never really considered.

There’s obviously no getting away from it being a bad situation.

(Well, some did see it coming and were told off the the government, eg Greenwich et al schools trying to close.)

That's a good point @TrashedWarrior

And yes that is entirely possible, although given my pipeline of planned analysis this week and next, interleaved with homeschooling, I probably wont get to it in all honesty.

I am planning to (hopefully) add data download buttons on all the charts so people who want to download the data and edit or analyse slightly differently they can. Because I think we all have different angles that are of interest/pertinent to us or the areas we live in.

But that is prob a week away, maybe a little more .... It is slow going with homeschooling running in parallel TBH

Sunshinegirl82

Fully agree - the hospital admission numbers reported now are unlikely to be directly comparable to the first wave data. Back then we only tested people who were admitted with respiratory symptoms and, as a result, missed a lot of cases.

I think INCARC reports might provide more insightful data (arguably, criteria for ICU admissions should be more comparable). They also show that the second wave has now surpassed the first wave and how much the impact varies by region:

www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports

On a different note - Zoe shows that the drop in COVID cases has slowed down. We used to see 7.5% drops in daily transmission rates - we are now down to 4.5%. The good news is it is still a statistically significant drop, the bad news is the Christmas period slowdown (Tier 4 + school closures) might have been more effective at reducing transmission than the "national lockdown" with "one exercise a day - stay local" rules.

On a different note - Zoe shows that the drop in COVID cases has slowed down. We used to see 7.5% drops in daily transmission rates - we are now down to 4.5%. The good news is it is still a statistically significant drop, the bad news is the Christmas period slowdown (Tier 4 + school closures) might have been more effective at reducing transmission than the "national lockdown" with "one exercise a day - stay local" rules.

I'm just thinking/typing aloud here, but also is there a certain percentage of transmission that you can 'knock out' quite easily with new measures like closing non-essential shops or schools, but then also a percentage (transmission within a household, transmission in hospitals, transmission in essential shops) that you can't, and so it's expected to see a sharper initial drop, as that initial group kicks in, but a slower sustained one? Perhaps that isn't right at all, as I said I'm just mulling this over in my head now...

the bad news is the Christmas period slowdown (Tier 4 + school closures) might have been more effective at reducing transmission than the "national lockdown" with "one exercise a day - stay local" rules.

It seems that no matter how hard the government want schools to have nothing to do with transmission, they really are a big factor.

If we do want some good news then Devi Sridhar said that she's feeling 'quite optimistic' for the UK, which is a day I never thought would come!

Haha that is unusual for Devi Sridhar!!

Thanks @littleowl1; completely understand how hard it is!

The inability to write disease has hit us badly

Perhaps that isn't right at all, as I said I'm just mulling this over in my head now...

Actually, it is a very credible explanation. Also, I should probably keep the sense of perspective - a 4.5% daily drop means a 27% reduction within a week.

Re schools - of course, schools matter but I hope there will be more research done on what happened to the new strain in December. I remember prior to Christmas a lot of people on social media got massively overexcited about the ONS study released on Dec 18. One particular graph from that report seemed to indicate that the primary school age children were the most infected group in comparison to the rest of the population. The graph was copied and posted all over social media. The fine print that the most recent ONS data was less accurate and subject to change was omitted.

Fast forward three weeks - and the new ONS study released on January 8 came up with a very different result. Infection levels in primary school children prior to Christmas were in fact very consistent with age groups 25-34 and 35-49. The most infected category were secondary school children:

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/8january2021

I do not think many posters of the old graph took time to revise their data and adjust their message. Schools do matter but there are different levels of risk across different age categories.

The schools issue has gotten a bit contentious and there has been a tendency to conflate different issues - do children get infected vs. do infections happen in school vs. are kids as likely to get infected as others vs. are kids as likely to transmit infections to others vs. are school based infections driving transmission overall vs. are schools “safe” and what do we mean by that. And these issues are difficult to untangle and answer from the overall statistics.

@littleowl1

I suspect homeschooling and doing all this is beyond difficult at times. Just want you to know that it is so appreciated. Wish I had the skills to offer help. Thank you.

I really don't much like remote teaching and many parents hate home school and students can go either way (I don't miss the behaviour issues and the anxiety of school in covid times at all though!) but I really really hope Boris doesn't go all bull in a china shop about reopening schools because we could go back to square one (or maybeetwo). There is an education select committee tomorrow with Viner and Harris, two of the most in denial about the way school children behave and how teachers work- and , yet again, no actual educationalists, so am interested to see how that goes.

That post is interesting winter : thanks I feel a bit 'I told them so' about it!.

Not sure the dashboard updated yet but Beeb news channel just reported

37535 cases and 599 deaths

Really dropping here SE London now

Does anyone know if there are any details about vaccination rates for different groups in different areas? I suspect not but would be interested to see the differences. I think Johnson said some areas had done over 90% of over 80s but the national average was 45% which seems a big difference and I wondered why. The only thing I could think of was some areas have a very ageing population e.g. a neighbouring town is locally called God's waiting room as so many retirees there. I'd be interested in any stats but I can't find anything.

One particular graph from that report seemed to indicate that the primary school age children were the most infected group in comparison to the rest of the population.

Are you sure it wasn't fastest growing? Because that was certainly true in our area.

@ancientgran

Does anyone know if there are any details about vaccination rates for different groups in different areas? I suspect not but would be interested to see the differences. I think Johnson said some areas had done over 90% of over 80s but the national average was 45% which seems a big difference and I wondered why. The only thing I could think of was some areas have a very ageing population e.g. a neighbouring town is locally called God's waiting room as so many retirees there. I'd be interested in any stats but I can't find anything.

This was in today’s paper. I’m not sure if they’ve had the full vaccination or if it was just the first jab

@Redlocks, thanks that is great. I'll have a good look at it.

There doesn't seem to be such a big variation in rates, nowhere has double the rate of other areas. Presumably some areas are targetting other groups. Or am I missing something.

Oh they are just talking about it on BBC.

Dashboard still not updated! I like going there to have a click around.

Are you sure it wasn't fastest growing? Because that was certainly true in our area.

Yes, sorry, you are right, based on preliminary ONS results, it looked like it was the group with (i) the highest growth of infections and (ii) much higher prevalence than their parents (population in the 25-34 and 35-49 age buckets).

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/18december2020

However, the subsequent publication has shown something different:

• The speed of growth and absolute levels of infections in primary school aged children was not dissimilar to their parents; and
• Spread among the secondary school children was in fact a much bigger problem (from the prevalence standpoint) .

@boys3

Not sure the dashboard updated yet but Beeb news channel just reported

37535 cases and 599 deaths

That’s good - nearly 20% decrease on last Monday’s reported cases but more deaths (as has been the trend)

Now waiting impatiently for the dashboard to update so I can look at my local areas....