Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th Jan

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Anecdote but our vaccination hub had a big shared tub of chocolates for everyone to dip into... whilst waiting around before and after.

Has anyone read much about the escalation in cases in West Africa? It's tricky of course with so little PCR testing never mind genome, but there were details a month ago about Nigeria having its own independent variant: virological.org/t/detection-of-sars-cov-2-p681h-spike-protein-variant-in-nigeria/567.
Now it looks like hospitals are struggling with oxygen supplies: www.ft.com/content/3d000093-87a3-48f3-8bb5-4ad9a8316aa1). FT suggests a range of countries across the region may be starting to struggle, though it's quite a mixed pattern and few confirmed cases in European terms:
www.ft.com/content/3d000093-87a3-48f3-8bb5-4ad9a8316aa1. Sunshine leading to more time outdoors is helpful in Africa to reduce spread, but it can only achieve so much and the medical infrastructure can be fragile at the best of times.

They might get more turning up in a very cold Jan/Feb if they promised them a whisky or a bacon butty.
All equally "transmissive" I suppose.
I still think I will make a break for it when I get mine (which is a good few months away and hopefully will be outdoors)

Some real world data on antibody responses to the Pfizer mRNA vaccine. We tested serum from 23 participants (median age 82) vaccinated with the first dose 3 weeks previously.
mobile.twitter.com/GuptaR_lab/status/1350131626240598019

Small sample size and will need follow up beyond 3 weeks, but suggests first dose alone may not provide optimal protection in that older age group and anyone already vaccinated still needs to take precautions given their increased risk due to age.

That's interesting @coffee. The vaccine trials tried to get a mix of ages and had over 50s in them - but does anyone know if they had very many over 80s in them? I only recall reading about the numbers of over 50s. But there's a big difference between a 55 year old "older person" and an 85 year old - we know that really old people's immune systems don't work so well in general. So could be that a significant number of them aren't well protected by vaccines. If they'd be better protected via a second shot, we might want to rethink the 12 week delay thing. On the other hand, if the very old just don't respond well to vaccines, the best option is to focus on getting them rolled out to the younger age groups (especially the 50-70 age group) in the hope of protecting the younger people directly and the very old indirectly.

And there is also chatter about totally foregoing the 2nd dose.
You know, just so vaccination numbers will look good on paper.

On the other hand, if the very old just don't respond well to vaccines, the best option is to focus on getting them rolled out to the younger age groups (especially the 50-70 age group) in the hope of protecting the younger people directly and the very old indirectly

That is exactly why the UK sacrifices a dozen kids a year to chicken pox deaths, but I'm not sure with the lack of evidence it's right to do anything but linking vaccination to clinical risk to covid itself.

Madhairday

Watched that video, it’s fab!

It's great research to do, but I don't think that research is showing anything useful yet. Firstly, some are protected and we always knew it wouldn't be 100% protected - the line there in grey was just one person. We don't deny everyone the mumps vaccine because it's only 88% effective, that's the point of the herd. Most vaccines have an uptick from the second vaccine; mumps goes from 78% to 88%, the grey line might react to the second doseb and with enough people included it will likely show the need for the second dose. It may show real differences or similarities between the vaccines either overall or for different groups. It gives an argument for continuing social distancing carefully (masks etc) until the full herd of us are vaccinated.

@sirfred - well it's also too late isn't it? If we do find that the very old don't respond well to the vaccine, it'll be by observing that they're still catching it. By that time most of them will have had the vaccine, so realising that it might have been better to focus on the under 80s will be little use. Hopefully there are enough older people who received the two doses to be able to see quite soon whether a second dose does help much. Still watching Israel with great interest though - they've done a quarter of their entire population now!

@ancientgran

The 15 minutes is in case of an allergic reaction. It's the same for flu jab, though back in October Boots let me hover just outside the door for 15 min rather than inside. I've been having flu jab for years as a carer, never been asked to wait after the jab at GPs. I think I was once when I had it at a pharmacy.

I think it's something that in practice they let slip if impractical at the GP - I had mine done a few months ago and there was no attempt to get people to stay for 15 mins, but then the whole operation - which was done as a walk-through - wouldn't have worked if they had. I had my whooping cough vaccination around the same time but at the hospital and there they were strict about it, but they also had a space set aside and they were only doing a handful a day.

38,598/671 today

.

Who'd have thought such high numbers could look good eh? But the blue is really spreading back into southern purple areas. (Bring on the green!)

@MRex yup my lighter purple area is increasingly being surrounded by blue. Bring on the green!

Is there anywhere to see previous daily zoe case predictions? Id be interested in seeing exactly how close they are.

Yep agree those (highish) numbers look good!

What was last Sunday?

Sunday 19th was 54,940 / 563. So it's worse for deaths

That should say 10th, obviously

Ah thanks big drop in cases

Fingers crossed deaths start change too

@MRex

Who'd have thought such high numbers could look good eh? But the blue is really spreading back into southern purple areas. (Bring on the green!)

I was thinking the same thing. I am just glad deaths are under 1000 which is such a strange thing to say, considering any deaths are a bad thing.

We look to be going in the right direction now

@InterfectoremVulpes

Is there anywhere to see previous daily zoe case predictions? Id be interested in seeing exactly how close they are.

I’d be interested in an answer to this to. I haven’t found where to see their past data either but then I’ve not spent a long time poking round their website.

From what I can see the last time we were under 40k cases was before Christmas so it’s nice to see the case numbers today. Obviously we’re far from out of the woods but seeing a tangible difference is motivating.

The table of councils on the www.covidmessenger.com homepage is updated with today's data release.

Thankfully, the new barometer is holding firm: the number of councils with falling cases week-over-week still looking good today.

@PussyCatInChristmasStockings

This is a really stupid question - but why are people being kept indoors for a further 15mins after their vaccination? I'm more than happy to run away as fast as my feet will carry me once that needle is out of my arm (which won't be until summer) I won't be hanging around indoors for 15 mins on the off chance that I might keel over.

At our centre it’s a marquee with either one side open or two doors Open at opposite ends so there’s through-flow of fresh air. And heaters.

Presuming Covid Zoe don't do retrospective edits, it's here: covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time.

Tim Spector has a cleaner version on his Twitter feed: mobile.twitter.com/timspector?lang=en.

I can't see where there is a month-by-month comparison with actual cases, which would be nice to see.