Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th Jan

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
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The table, how soothing the green lines are.

I used the term ‘Covid party’ with reference to primary schools. I was specifically talking about Johnson’s decision to let all the kids mix for a day and did not mean to cause offence I was speculating that that single day might mean the a prolonged significant fall in cases might take longer than hoped.

This is one rendition of a graph showing that over 80s deaths are not yet decreasing in line with the rest of the population. Possibly due to Christmas mixing, but I also wonder about everyone mixing for vaccines. I do not have any criticism or answers, we need to vaccinate as many as possible as fast as possible - no question.

Sorry if I've missed someone posting this, but it's a video from Jon Burns Murdoch at FT going through all the data and explaining why 'winter excess deaths' are not the same thing as excess deaths, so why we cannot compare say the 2018 flu season in the way many sceptics try to. I as someone who is not particularly adept with numbers found it very easy to understand and watch so thought it might be useful here.

www.ft.com/video/0cd6f9f9-664e-40f9-bad4-dde59d7c746c

@Yummyoldbag - there have been multiple care home outbreaks listed on the surveillance report: www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports, see pages 21-22. Unfortunately the new variant is more transmissible and that again has led to issues for those in contact with lots of people such as care homes. As that's been logged, it seems more likely that is the cause of additional cases and deaths rather than illegal indoor mixing by elderly or carefully distanced vaccination centres.

Hmmm. I wish I was certain that vaccination centres were able to accommodate social distancing, or indeed that with the new variant social distancing plus masks but indoors (and some centres offer a cup of tea while waiting for the 15 minutes so no masks then) was sufficient. I don’t see a way around this but suspect it might be a factor. I also suspect that official sources would not emphasise this as vaccination is so very important. Hey ho!

The care home I work in had it's first covid case in December, by the end of December half the residents had or were recovering from Covid. I don't think behaviour had changed but obviously something had.

@Yummyoldbag

Hmmm. I wish I was certain that vaccination centres were able to accommodate social distancing, or indeed that with the new variant social distancing plus masks but indoors (and some centres offer a cup of tea while waiting for the 15 minutes so no masks then) was sufficient. I don’t see a way around this but suspect it might be a factor. I also suspect that official sources would not emphasise this as vaccination is so very important. Hey ho!

Would drive through centres be safer? Or I saw a GP on TV during the week, they had set up vaccinations in a car park, it looked like a multi storey in that is was open to the sides but did have a ceiling/roof. She said it had two benefits, all the vulnerable safer outside and the surgery safe for non covid patients. I thought that seemed a good plan but obviously not everywhere will have a handy car park.

This is one rendition of a graph showing that over 80s deaths are not yet decreasing in line with the rest of the population. Possibly due to Christmas mixing
It's in the care homes round us, much worse than the first wave. Staff and residents and very ill and there have been a number of deaths. The homes have been really careful and there was no Christmas mixing.

@Yummyoldbag - where are they providing tea indoors, can you provide a link?

Our GPs have a marquee with one side open but heaters going.
No tea. Masks on at all times. Very strictly but kindly enforced.

Drive through would be good, but they need to keep an eye on recipients for 15 mins. Slough and Aldershot both offer tea, great effort is made to space tables etc but I worry. Sorry, not a data link but I would be interested to know if many places do this. Only because that might be an easy fix before ECV are called for jabs. I have emailed both centres just saying I have an totally unsubstantiated concern but...

Yes that tea offering isn't good really is it?

I know of a home for disabled under 60s, about 12 residents, all bar one currently positive, plus 70% of staff positive. 7 staff volunteered to sleep in so they could do a total lockdown.

@Yummyoldbag - it's not an unsubstantiated concern at all, the government has said it isn't safe for cafes to be open. Unless the tea is being served up outside, I can imagine that being a delightful spot for the 15 min monitoring at Salisbury Cathedral (under the arch bit at the side). I haven't heard about that anywhere else. Anyway, you've pointed it out to them.

I think part of the reason cases haven't fallen for the over 80s (apart from the care home issue) is that they weren't as affected by the lockdown rules as everyone else. Working age people had workplaces close (shopworkers, etc), stopped going to pubs, and schools closed which helps parent age groups, whereas most of the contact that over 80s had was unavoidable (healthcare) or still permitted (support bubbles, childcare, food shopping in person) so the lockdown will have less impact on them. Though infection at a vaccination site is a possibility and will be hard to see from the data on a population level because the incubation period is only slightly shorter than the time taken for the vaccine to start protecting. I think you'd need actual data on people who catch it within 10 days of being vaccinated to see if that was happening.

I do think it's a bit concerning that the vaccinated the vaccinaters at the same time as getting started on the over 80s - I'd have expected them to get the vaccinaters done first.

Better to recommend people bring a thermos than serve them tea surely?

When I got my jab before Xmas (front line HCP) I couldn't believe they were encouraging mask off eating and drinking afterwards TBF there probrably was a 2m distance.....I choose to keep my mask on.

Having said that I saw nurses taking their break together on friday (no masks ax eating less than 2m).

I wonder whether the tea was due to people fainting after injections. Ds tends to faint after them, although he really doesn't mind injections and has a lively conversation all the way through. The nurse said he was only the second child she'd met that wanted the flu jab in his arm rather than up his nose.
Giving him something warm to drink afterwards definitely helps.

They may have risk assessed and decided that giving all a cup of tea in a disposable mug was a lower risk that having to deal at close quarters with elderly people who have fainted and the daily mail journalists posting pictures of "three dead within minutes of covid jab"

I'm not convinced that it's a good idea, but there may be methos behind it.

method!

This is a really stupid question - but why are people being kept indoors for a further 15mins after their vaccination?
I'm more than happy to run away as fast as my feet will carry me once that needle is out of my arm (which won't be until summer) I won't be hanging around indoors for 15 mins on the off chance that I might keel over.

The 15 minutes is in case of an allergic reaction. It's the same for flu jab, though back in October Boots let me hover just outside the door for 15 min rather than inside.

Actually...thinking back to flu jabs, we had to hang around in blinkin' Sainsburys for 15 mins "just in case" we didn't but I'm guessing this is policed differently.🤔

MRex I did the shopping while DH was used for target practice 😉😂 he wouldn't wait, so we left and went home.

Can't help wondering if there is a semi-cultural element here too. The army/St John's/WRVS probably provide tea by default. Which is delightfully british, but not necessarily wise.

@Al1langdownthecleghole

Can't help wondering if there is a semi-cultural element here too. The army/St John's/WRVS probably provide tea by default. Which is delightfully british, but not necessarily wise.

You could be right. I can imagine the conversations: How can we help best? I know, let's give everyone a cup of tea afterwards.

The 15 minutes is in case of an allergic reaction. It's the same for flu jab, though back in October Boots let me hover just outside the door for 15 min rather than inside. I've been having flu jab for years as a carer, never been asked to wait after the jab at GPs. I think I was once when I had it at a pharmacy.