Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th Jan

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@littleowl1

The table of councils on www.covidmessenger.com homepage is updated with today's data release.

Quite an astonishing drop in the number of councils with rising cases!

Just to clarify- this is the situation as of 5 days ago, so it could potentially be better than the data show?

@littleowl1
Thank you.
That is a difference. Looks like the places to watch now are Devon, Greater Manchester, Merseyside and Lancashire.

[quote Witchend]@littleowl1
Thank you.
That is a difference. Looks like the places to watch now are Devon, Greater Manchester, Merseyside and Lancashire.[/quote]
And Bristol/Bath/North Somerset

I’ve been pondering on measures post lockdown. Living in Kent, we went straight from lockdown 2 into tier 4, during which time cases continued to rise sharply throughout. So this would imply tier 4 isn’t sufficient for the new variant (?), so I wonder how much we can actually unlock ourselves from this before a decent amount of us have the vaccine.

On another side note of pondering, am I right in saying the vaccines potentially don’t stop a person transmitting it to others? Could it be the case that those vaccinated become a kind of silent spreader of the virus thinking they are safe and as things are eased?

@littleowl1

The table of councils on www.covidmessenger.com homepage is updated with today's data release.

Quite an astonishing drop in the number of councils with rising cases!

Thank you for this. We are at last falling and now 26th in the table compared to 17th a few days ago :)

Just to clarify- this is the situation as of 5 days ago, so it could potentially be better than the data show?

its the data based on largely confirmed specimen date cases; overall trajectory is currently downward.

here's the but

the prior week was a bit unusual, as Tues 29th Dec had over 70,000 cases in England, and Monday 4th Jan was also not far off 70,000, so that seven day period has the highest number of cases for any rolling seven day period since the pandemic started. So if would be astonishing if 80% or more councils did not show, as over 80% do, a - hugely welcome - week on week decline.

a graphic representation of the week on week decline. X axis in the 7 day rate per 100,000 and y axis the percentage increase (above the x axis) or decrease (below the x axis) for the 7 days to 11 Jan as compared with the 7 days to 4th Jan.

Lots of dots below the line. Good News

but before everyone gets too carried away the same graphic format but comparing the movement for the 7 days to 11th Jan with that at the end of the November lockdown.

Almost every council above the line, and note the y axis scale that is required to show every council.

What we need to see is more councils in this comparison starting to fall below the x axis line.

.

Scarily the Isle of Wight was sitting at 4th highest growth rate yesterday. Back down to 11th today. Amazing given it was literally at a handful of cases at the beginning of December. There has been a push to get a few more ICU beds organised, think there were only 6 to begin with.

@InterfectoremVulpes

It is the situation for test samples taken 5 days ago (so people who turned up to be tested 5 days ago).

Yes by now it could be better (or worse).

My guess is we will bump along over the next week or so. We will probably see isoalted outbreaks in some councils which will skew the data occasionally. But certainly, it's very positive.

I will keep updating the barometer at the top of www.covidmessenger.com every day so anyone who wishes to keep track councils with rising/falling can.

@Reastie

I’ve been pondering on measures post lockdown. Living in Kent, we went straight from lockdown 2 into tier 4, during which time cases continued to rise sharply throughout. So this would imply tier 4 isn’t sufficient for the new variant (?), so I wonder how much we can actually unlock ourselves from this before a decent amount of us have the vaccine.

On another side note of pondering, am I right in saying the vaccines potentially don’t stop a person transmitting it to others? Could it be the case that those vaccinated become a kind of silent spreader of the virus thinking they are safe and as things are eased?

On another side note of pondering, am I right in saying the vaccines potentially don’t stop a person transmitting it to others?

My understanding is that indications show it does prevent transmission but there's not enough firm evidence to actually confirm this yet.

[quote littleowl1]@InterfectoremVulpes

It is the situation for test samples taken 5 days ago (so people who turned up to be tested 5 days ago).

Yes by now it could be better (or worse).

My guess is we will bump along over the next week or so. We will probably see isoalted outbreaks in some councils which will skew the data occasionally. But certainly, it's very positive.

I will keep updating the barometer at the top of www.covidmessenger.com every day so anyone who wishes to keep track councils with rising/falling can.[/quote]
Thanks for doing what you do

@Reastie - logically, if someone has a vaccine and doesn't get symptoms then they fought off the virus quickly. At the very least, they were infectious for less time than someone who got unwell. Excreted virus can also be picked up in testing that the body is getting rid of (because the vaccinated person breathed it in) but may not indicate being infectious. From what I've read, it's very hard to test for infectivity, not least because there isn't an agreed standard figure of infectivity, only complaints that levels may be "too high" to be safe missing in lateral flow tests, or "too low" giving a false positive PCR result at the end of an infection.

4m vaccines done!

Ah yes, we must celebrate that we have just over 3.3m confirmed cases and over 3.5m first dose vaccines. 2m jabs per week being comfortably delivered already, it's looking great.

Thank you, that’s reassuring and yay to all the vaccines!

Great to see so much more green in the covid messenger table - hopefully Bristol will turn green soon too. Our one week in tier 2 just before Christmas 🎄 is probably why we are still red.

Why are some still going up in lockdown.?

I’ve looked at the greater Manchester boroughs and assuming that the cases for 12th January are substantially complete (they typically are by this stage, perhaps 5% to add to that day) then I think 5 out of the 10 boroughs will be showing as green tomorrow...fingers crossed

(I meant still showing as green.. and the other 5 now only rising very slightly (between 1-5%)

Thank you @Witchend

@HSHorror

Why are some still going up in lockdown.?

Household transmission and hospital acquired infection I presume. High levels of pupils still in schools in some areas? Nurseries? Covid "secure" workplaces?

@HSHorror The lockdown only started in 6 January. The places that were lower tiers before lockdown had shops open with the sales on only 10 days ago, as well as that one school day on the 4th. Given there's a 6 day incubation period, day or so to get a test, and 1-4 days getting the results published, we're expect to see the impact of lockdown in these areas over the next few days. It may also be hardest to bring cases down in areas that have only ever had low case rates, as there's still a lot of vulnerable people.

5 day incubating, plus 5 days for family members. London clearly dropped from end of December after lockdown from 19th. So come other areas may not reach their peak cases until 16th-19th (only observable 5 days later when test logs catch up), any earlier is lucky. By next weekend we should be seeing nice reductions everywhere, if not there's a problem.