Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th Jan

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

I think the problem with R numbers is the data keeps changing as per Adam Kucharski in Times today. The second wave in Manaus shouldn’t have happened according to previous thinking on herd immunity and R, for example, so the reality, is sadly for those that like clear facts, that nobody knows for sure at the moment.

I dont know if this has been posted before but this link shows the number of vaccinations administered in each country. Its regularly updated

ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

@wintertravel1980

Many of my colleagues use Zoe and they have still got their children as school (since they qualify as key workers).

My DD is in the nursery and I am also a Zoe user.

I do not know if Zoe is representative enough to estimate the accurate absolute numbers but it should provide a reasonable trend. I agree next few days will be important.

I bet none of them are sending their kids in when there's a stay at home parent though.

I bet none of them are sending their kids in when there's a stay at home parent though.

Based on specific examples I know second parents are often "key workers" in other similar organisations, GPs or, in fact, teachers. Actually, quite a few teachers.

Interesting article in the Irish Times - Irish Doctors are reporting many more positive Covid cases as initially presenting with “a cold”. Note that in Ireland Covid tests are accessed through GPs so they’re more likely to have a good knowledge of how patients are presenting when they refer them for testing

www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/health-family/irish-gps-fighting-third-wave-covid-on-the-front-line-of-the-world-s-worst-outbreak-1.4458430?mode=amp

Apologies if already posted, but this is an interesting BBC article on whether Christmas mingling caused or contributed to the spike in cases in December/January.

'...a closer look at the numbers suggests this trend was already happening and was probably caused by the new, more infectious variant of the virus rather than increased contact between people.'

www.bbc.co.uk/news/55669736

[quote oneglassandpuzzled]Apologies if already posted, but this is an interesting BBC article on whether Christmas mingling caused or contributed to the spike in cases in December/January.

'...a closer look at the numbers suggests this trend was already happening and was probably caused by the new, more infectious variant of the virus rather than increased contact between people.'

www.bbc.co.uk/news/55669736[/quote]
I thought that was interesting, but I did think one thing was missing.
They gave the graphs for the areas where Christmas meeting was allowed, but not the areas where Christmas meetings weren't for comparison.
They are all (except possibly Wales) showing a rise which could be Christmas meetings. So to really show it wasn't anything to do with it, I'd want to compare with those who weren't allowed them. (yes, I know some people will anyway)

The other thing which isn't looked at in the article is that most schools finished a week before Christmas, which could have brought the numbers down from around Christmas onwards, so I don't think the conclusion is that easy to draw.

Interesting. Witchend!

41,346 cases today. Big drop

41,346 positives today.

And 324,233 vaccinations, which is up on yesterday, though not by a lot

I'm in South Devon, numbers look like they might be plateauing the last 2 or 3 days, fingers crossed as we had big increases last week although from a relatively low base.

Looking good for cases, deaths is not good, and they don't think they're at the peak yet.

My worry is people are going to be thinking "we're going down, we don't need to be so careful", but actually the numbers are still more than double what at one point we thought was horrific.
I know three people who died this week, and around a dozen who have confirmed at least one positive case in their household, so we're not out of the woods yet.
(sorry for sounding negative)

Witchend little surprise if you are sounding a big negative if you know 3 people who died this week. Maybe because we have had low figures I don't know anyone who has died with or of covid but then a few weeks ago I'd have said I don't know anyone who has had a positive test but during December and early January I've lost count.

@ancientgran

I'm in South Devon, numbers look like they might be plateauing the last 2 or 3 days, fingers crossed as we had big increases last week although from a relatively low base.

I hope so. I had been fearful watching the numbers in the SW as they rose steadily, even though they have stayed far below the southeast.

It would be good news if the rise has been halted.

If you look at the deaths data for the last week or so they just go up and up each day (as expected and predicted but still horrible to see 1000+ deaths on one day).

I do know someone who died from it, unfortunately. It's still kind of hard to believe. Not an elderly or frail person but one who leaves a devastated family behind.

@Al1langdownthecleghole yes I've been watching as it was rising, I know we have been lucky but it did seem such a drastic change. Fingers crossed.

@ancientgran thanks. Unfortunately it seems to have hit the nursing homes hard since Christmas round here; not just the residents, but the staff as well.
They've been so careful since it all began, and it seems so hard that they came within touching distance of the vaccine which might have stopped the spread.

I have noticed that it isn't just more people I know catching it, but also people who are being genuinely very careful which seems to be the sign of the new strain. Before Christmas most people that I knew either had a very clear risk (like NHS staff or school) or were not being that careful.

It's so weird isn't it- back in April we only had daily deaths and not case numbers, we were all horrified when it was 700+. Now daily figures of 1000+ don't seem as bad because we're focusing on the case numbers going down, although as a pp said we all thought it was awful when they were in the mid 20,000s. Funny how our viewpoints change. Fingers crossed for a continuous dropping anyway!

36% drop in cases in my local authority from last week

Even though the prior week in current vs previous 7 day comparison was the absolute peak in England (including both 29 dec and 4 jan) by my reckoning 271 councils have seen week on week falls.

London falling by nearly 23% although still has the highest rate for any region. Only north west increases, and that by 1%. Although some parts there with quite big week on week rises.

Moving 7 day average in England just over 45000. A month earlier though it was around the 15000 mark.

Complacency with numbers starting to fall, allied to a failure to understand just how catastrophically high they still are, may be the biggest risk.

That said if we get a further weekly fall of around 20% next week, and week after maybe some real downward momentum will gather pace.

And on a much more local note my shielding neighbours received their invite to have the vaccine next week, 100% committed to getting this first jab done. I know it’s just 2 people but I had a little cry of happiness when they told me. All outside and very well distanced before anyone asks.

The table of councils on www.covidmessenger.com homepage is updated with today's data release.

Quite an astonishing drop in the number of councils with rising cases!

Little owl - that is a dramatic change! Great to see so much green

@MissMarpleTheMurderer

Are the people getting vaccinated in April only going to have protection for five months as I've read about natural immunity

You missed something when you read about natural immunity. The SIREN study to which you are referring said that immunity lasted at least five months. The study lasted.... five months. So they can’t say that immunity lasts six months, or twelve, or longer, because not enough time has elapsed.

By contrast, immunity to the original SARS was still found 17 years after people had recovered from it.