Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th Jan

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@QueenStromba #"- it is not airborne like the common cold, no. Never has been. Unlikely to be unless it changes drastically, it's too heavy.

Indeed piggy

@Crumpetycrump

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/whitehall-sources-predict-all-over-50s-will-get-covid-vaccine-by-end-of-march-28p9hqz2g Good news on vaccine rollout.

Does anyone know if this means up to priority 6 will be done by end of March please? So basically will the under 50s who are vulnerable be included?

@TheSunIsStillShining Huge difference between positivity for PCR and LRF tests. I’ll check out the latest figs if I get a moment over the weekend.

[quote MRex]@QueenStromba #"- it is not airborne like the common cold, no. Never has been. Unlikely to be unless it changes drastically, it's too heavy.[/quote]
www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3206

I think even if it doesn’t fit some criteria of being airborne, there is good evidence that it can be borne by air over distances greater than 2m and can hang around in air over longish periods if conditions allow. The problem is that if you admit that, the concept of “covid secure” itself evaporates into the air.

@QueenStromba - changing the definition of aerosol doesn't amount to proof. Droplets can travel and cause infection, that's why distance and ventilation are important. Aerosol transmission would alter those factors immeasurably. Look up R rate of measles, chickenpox etc to understand what aerosol would truly mean. It's all shit enough with droplet transmission, the last thing anyone would want is for covid to alter sufficiently to aerosolise.

Think this is really good in covering a lot of the questions and controversies about the airborne concept www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(21)00007-4/fulltext#.X_9S09K2WXA.twitter

Interesting thread looking at the data on the UK's vaccination programme:
mobile.twitter.com/rowlsmanthorpe/status/1350181996258095104

Article showing number of vaccine doses administered and the figures adjusted per capita to compare the progress across countries in Europe.

Nice link! But how the hell is Brazil's death rate per head lower than ours

Brazil has a lower median age than we do (just over 30 vs. just over 40) which should lower mortality rates. There’s probably a record keeping element to it as well.

Here is a report on Brazil excess deaths from October. 118,406 additional excess "natural" deaths in Brazil (usually 1000-2000 according to this report), on top of the 150,998 declared at the time of the report (the latter is now 206,188): www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7576323/.

I've followed these threads for a while now and appreciate so much the balanced discussion and facts that have helped me keep a level head during this. Thank you!
I work in community pharmacy, and we received our first box of self admin lft tests this week. We are to carry out twice a week and report results ourselves onto the government website. All pharmacies (at least in England) were to receive a box of 25 tests from the 4/1/21. There are about 11500 pharmacies in England so that will be a lot more lft tests being reported each week and obviously we get the results straight away.

I concur with @borntobequiet.
I went to non touristy parts, and the lack of elderly people was quite startling.

[quote CoffeeandCroissant]Interesting thread looking at the data on the UK's vaccination programme:
mobile.twitter.com/rowlsmanthorpe/status/1350181996258095104[/quote]
That is interesting. Notable that everywhere willingness to get the vaccine seems to have decreased since they've been a reality - it seems so odd to me, I might have been more hesitant in August thinking 'well, I wouldn't have it if it had very low effectiveness' or something like that, but now I'd absolutely have it because we know that the evidence is that they work.

There’s probably a record keeping element to it as well

Not so sure on that one.

This is from today's DM article-yes I know before all the groans
"Brazil's health system is one of the largest across the globe to provide care to everyone free of charge and has a solid tradition in the surveillance of infectious diseases. However, COVID-19 overwhelmed the system's capacity.' "

People say that there is no healthservice like the NHS. But Brazil's is largely free too. Thankfully when I was there[no tourists other than us, town size 120,000, nearer Amazonias than some places, but not near in the way the UK would call near] I didnt need to use the hospital, so couldnt comment on what it was like, particularly about record keeping.. But I do know that a few days before this christmas, it too was overwhelmed with covid[briefly for a few days, about 5] and people were having to wait outside it, for beds to become available.

Folks - I just posted this on the Good News thread too.

I have added a big "barometer" chart in the middle of the www.covidmessenger.com homepage that clearly shows the number of councils with rising versus falling cases w-o-w.

I wanted to add this so people get a clear snapshot of the rather positive news we have at the moment - that lockdown is starting to work and we are see a reduction in cases in most councils (albeit from high levels).

It has certainly cheered me up of late so I wanted to put it front and centre for everyone to see as soon as they visit the site.

I hope you like it!

Prof John Edmunds (Sage) says Christmas didn't have much impact, increases were just new variant: www.bbc.co.uk/news/55669736.

@lightand - are you seriously using a DM article referencing that healthcare exists and you looking at people on holiday to refute the scientific study I linked that had the actual excess death figures in it? If it's a joke, I don't get it.

No Mrex
No idea where you got that idea from.
And no need whatsoever to be rude.

Notable that everywhere willingness to get the vaccine seems to have decreased since they've been a reality - it seems so odd to me, I might have been more hesitant in August thinking 'well, I wouldn't have it if it had very low effectiveness' or something like that, but now I'd absolutely have it because we know that the evidence is that they work

Do we? Changing the vaccination schedule without agreement from the manufacturers would concern some people, having two jabs from different companies will concern some people, they don't even know if it stops you from contracting the virus and/or passing it on, or how long is works for. Are the people getting vaccinated in April only going to have protection for five months as I've read about natural immunity. Does this mean that come winter they either need another (which they can't get due to supplies /logistics) Do the general public really understand what it means when the say they say efficacy?
It's all well and good saying people should trust those who study it but the government has made monumental cock ups, we appear to be leading the world in vaccination, which to be frank, after our previous world leading abilities scares the fuck out of me.
I will get the vaccine, but I understand why people are unsure. Sorry gone off data

[quote MRex]@QueenStromba - changing the definition of aerosol doesn't amount to proof. Droplets can travel and cause infection, that's why distance and ventilation are important. Aerosol transmission would alter those factors immeasurably. Look up R rate of measles, chickenpox etc to understand what aerosol would truly mean. It's all shit enough with droplet transmission, the last thing anyone would want is for covid to alter sufficiently to aerosolise.[/quote]
Covid being airborne is why social distancing has all but eradicated flu this year while covid is still rampant. If we want to get out of this crisis we need to stop pretending that you need to be right on top of someone to catch it. The new variant probably has an R0 well above 5 which does put it not far off measles territory.

@lightand - "Not so sure on that one." means you are disputing the record keeping comment, backed up by your holiday. You posted not once, but twice after I had posted a link to back up that the Brazilian records are incorrect because there are a huge number of excess deaths not included. I put the figures in my post, so you didn't even need to read the article. What point are you trying to make?

Re the data (or possibly 'analytical'). Commentators are saying we will soon be able to see what the effect of widespread vaccination is, from Israel. Will that give the UK insight into the likely effect will be here, given that Israel has been ?all? pfizer, and no astrazenica, or will those findings be inapplicable to UK forecasts? (Or possibly somewhere in beween? afaia Pfizer will be a fairly small proportion of total UK vaccinations.)

@littleowl1

Folks - I just posted this on the Good News thread too.

I have added a big "barometer" chart in the middle of the www.covidmessenger.com homepage that clearly shows the number of councils with rising versus falling cases w-o-w.

I wanted to add this so people get a clear snapshot of the rather positive news we have at the moment - that lockdown is starting to work and we are see a reduction in cases in most councils (albeit from high levels).

It has certainly cheered me up of late so I wanted to put it front and centre for everyone to see as soon as they visit the site.

I hope you like it!

Thank you! Very clear new chart and great to see such a lot of green

I think my 2 posts are quite clear on both occasions that I was talking about the post by @borntobequiet. My first post I put @borntobequiet, and the second one, I quoted directly from her post. Not sure I could or needed to be any clearer on whose post I was talking about.