Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th Jan

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Useful link of you find yourself involved in a conversation with someone who has only read about this in a Daily Mail article that has the phrase 'vaccine deaths' in the headline (basically some very frail elderly patients in Norway have died after getting the vaccine and they are looking into it as is their duty, but it is NOT the case that the vaccine has caused their deaths) www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n149
Sadly the Daily Mail has wider circulation than the BMJ.

@QueenStromba - Droplets have always still enabled some infection spread, even with masks, and with covid especially now the spike protein is thought to be able to bind to cells more easily. Measles has an R of 12-18, chickenpox and mumps 10-12; it's thankfully not in that league unless performing certain medical procedures. It's a semantics argument about size/weight and name, so call it aerosol if you like, my main worry is that could be needlessly concerning to some when a mask genuinely helps. (But N95 will of course work better than a flappy thin bit of cotton.)

[quote MRex]@QueenStromba - Droplets have always still enabled some infection spread, even with masks, and with covid especially now the spike protein is thought to be able to bind to cells more easily. Measles has an R of 12-18, chickenpox and mumps 10-12; it's thankfully not in that league unless performing certain medical procedures. It's a semantics argument about size/weight and name, so call it aerosol if you like, my main worry is that could be needlessly concerning to some when a mask genuinely helps. (But N95 will of course work better than a flappy thin bit of cotton.)[/quote]
It's not needless concern - it's very needed concern. People should be a lot more concerned.

The new variant likely has an R0 in the range 4.59-9.69, so not dissimilar to chicken pox and not far off measles.

Millions of elderly people have now had the vaccine across Europe. It would be astounding if some of them didn't happen to die within a few days of receiving it! A predictable scare headline, but hopefully the very high Covid death figures will put most things in perspective. Vaccine refusal also doesn't really matter from a societal perspective until we've managed to get through everyone who wants a vaccine - it matters to the high risk individuals who put themselves at risk, and indirectly the NHS which ends up caring for them, but from the point of view of reducing transmission by vaccine-driven herd immunity, it doesn't matter much who you vaccinate or in what order.

I guess with the aerosol/airborne thing, aside from the semantics aspect, what matters is that what we’ve told people doesn’t correlate well with risk. For example, I was chatting to an acquaintance pre lockdown who was saying that at the weekend she had been to the zoo - all outdoors - but didn’t feel safe because it was quite busy, and she’d been to a restaurant where it was very clean and the tables were well spaced and she felt safe. The fact of the matter is that she had that the wrong way round. If an infectious person was 2m away from her in that restaurant, mask free, for a couple of hours talking a lot, that would be a notable risk. But because we haven’t talked honestly about the way covid spreads via the air, she had no idea. That’s very frustrating.

@QueenStromba - where do you get that R0 number from? I had assumed it was 50-70% over R0 of 2-3, so R0 of 3-5.1, but I haven't seen anything except the 50-70% figure, so maybe you have more up to date information than me?

@lightand - You told @borntobequiet they were wrong about Brazilian death records while ignoring a post from me with data that proved their point. It needed to be called out so that the evidence isn't lost behind you disputing the point with false observations.

My first thought was the probably mixed up the dosage like the Germany did with those nurses.

The account I read said something about they have changed the dose amount now. So that suggests they had it wrong. Obviously to much would make a healthy younger nurse sick but could kill a frail old person. I think that is logical. Will have to wait and see.

Apparently British and Danish the most willing for vaccines yougov.co.uk/topics/health/articles-reports/2021/01/15/international-study-how-many-people-will-take-covi

I said "couldnt comment" and "not so sure" about record keeping, so didnt say she was "wrong" about "death records".
Gosh.

Lets leave it, shall we, Mrex.

Sorry means to say, Thai, British and Danes.

Also an older vaccine survey, which found overall willingness lower (maybe before the third wave situation?) shows older age groups in U.K. the most willing yougov.co.uk/topics/health/articles-reports/2020/11/16/how-many-britons-are-willing-take-coronavirus-vacc

Based on the latest PHE report, the new UK strain is 30 to 50% more transmissible.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/950823/Variant_of_Concern_VOC_202012_01_Technical_Briefing_3_-_England.pdf

Both when using genomic sequence data directly and SGTF as a proxy, the secondary attack rates estimated from contact tracing data are observed to be higher if the index case has the variant strain, from around 11% to 15% of named contacts. This increase is around 10% to 70% across most age groups and regions where sufficient sequencing data is available. Using the SGTF proxy to give a more comprehensive overview the increase is consistently around 30% to 50%.

70% was the upper range of the initial estimate but it has been narrowed down after more detailed analysis.

I do not see how the 50% increase in transmissibility can result in R over 5. The number of 3.5 to 5 (and 5 would be stretching it) is probably a more realistic estimate.

Re our slight slowing of the drop in infections, we are now 2 weeks past the primary school Covid parties. Given that children might not show signs I wonder if we are now getting a bump of adults that have contracted it? It is so widespread throughout the population it is hard to see if you get (parent of primary school aged children) are rising. Unless anyone else knows how to read the data?

I also wonder if the queuing etc for our elderly vulnerable people getting their jabs might substantially increase their risk of contracting Covid? It seems to be the first outing for many in a long while.

4th Jan to 9th for child infection, to 14th for their household. I don't see it in the figures yet but there's very little for 14th so you need to wait a few days. Many Tier 4 areas had closed schools so you should check regional cases here rather than full country, e.g. NE, coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=region&areaName=North East.

Yummy heat maps for my area show different. It spread throughout the adult population and its now spreading to the children. Its quite remarkably how the heat map is slowly getting darker now for the children when the schools have been closed for almost a month.

Does anyone know if Oxford AZ vaccine can be tweaked more quickly than Pfizer?

Just listening to radio and mention that it was mapped initially in a weekend. Is the timing at about 6 weeks the same as Pfizer?

I think 30 to 40 days was in print somewhere but can’t recall which - might be Oxford too

I suppose it might all be mapping to production time. Not sure on process

This is a surprisingly spiky thread to post on at present. You’d think it was an acrimonious common room in a university.
Thank you lightand for the interesting info about the Brazilian health care system. I don’t mind DM links as I can always check what they say elsewhere. The WHO seems quite positive about it.

Worth remembering that the age heat maps only go up to 10 January, so may be an element of Christmas mixing still coming through for those areas where it was allowed.
And also (anecdotally/from press articles - not seen any official data sources yet) there are up to 50% of children still in school in some areas

I have a potentially stupid question - sorry if it's been asked already, I did a quick search of the thread but couldn't see it. The government dashboard has R estimated at 1.2-1.3 with an infection growth rate of +2 to +5% as of yesterday, but it also shows a clear (albeit small) downward trend in daily new cases since the start of the month. Am I missing something? How do you reconcile the two?

ceevee that is most likely what is causing the increase in cases in children. We don't yet know the impact of the schools opening to some children.

But what I can clearly see is cases increasing in the adult population, possibly as a consequence of restaurants / pubs being open in Tier 2.

My reading of the data (and I may be wrong of course) is that the schools did not contribute much to the spread locally (case numbers were low) but Tier 2 and the reopening of pubs / restaurants did in December. We had a lot of people coming from higher tiers.

That has allowed the viruses variant to really take hold and it may now spread throughout the schools too. (One of the reasons I am keeping mine at home when they could be in).

@littleowl
Thank you for the new addition to your dashboard- you have saved me a job counting all the green entries every day. It is astonishing how quickly this has changed, it can't be more than a week since my borough was the only place falling.

I also wonder if the queuing etc for our elderly vulnerable people getting their jabs might substantially increase their risk of contracting Covid? It seems to be the first outing for many in a long while My husband is worrying about that, he hasn't been out of the house, even for a walk, in weeks, has probably been in an indoor public place half a dozen times since March. He wants the jab but he is nervous about being in a crowded place, where we are they are doing it in a big hub, all the local GPs are doing it there so as far as I know no option of going to a smaller venue unless a pharmacy starts doing them.

It’s really hard to read anything from the age heat maps to be honest. Children tend to be asymptomatic and are more likely to not get tested. ONS estimated before Christmas rates of 2000/100,000 for primary which was (I think) approx 8 times the rates shown from actual testing.

Anecdote alert- my DS class teacher tested positive just before the Christmas break (so the class all self isolated for 10 days). 6 of his classmates’ families tested positive a week or so later despite not leaving the house for a week, but they never had tested the children because they only had cold like or no symptoms.Of course they don’t know for sure that the transmission came that route but if it did then that means that the children rate was understated by 6 cases but that 12 adults tested positive