Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th Jan

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@MRex

55k? It was going in the right direction. What's happened now? Urgh.

Last Friday was 68k. We are going in the right direction.

It was 68k this time last week so I would say this is very much the right direction. For whatever reason to do with the way tests are currently organised they seem to be higher on Fridays.

That’s good to know re Fridays

Yes, looks like Friday is the new “high watermark” day of the week for reported cases. When we went through the period of rapid growth, it used to be Wednesdays and occasionally Thursdays.

I was expecting a number between 50,000 and 55,000. Have been disappointed to see 55k+ but have then looked at the week on week variance in the “daily update” section of the dashboard and cheered up when I saw the green arrow (-13.7% down for cases).

Disappointingly my area in Kent (Tonbridge & Malling) after five days at around 85 cases daily has shot up again to 150 today. Last Friday was 159 by way of comparison. Still lower than the peak reported on 31/12 of 232.

Thanks @lunar1, I was hoping it would be 45k but you're quite right it's still the right direction on a weekly basis. Looks like a few increases in Birmingham, Liverpool and Lancashire still that it would be nice to see go down.
It's nice in my area to see the blue creeping back in, reassuring.

I know other posters have already mentioned Zoe numbers. Here is the latest post from Tim Spector with more details on estimated regional R ratios and case dynamics:

covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-is-trending-down

Nearly 700k tests is extraordinary, especially with all the vaccination efforts alongside. It's useful that they're under separate ministers I guess, preventing resource conflict.

3,234,946 first dose vaccines so far; 316,694 yesterday plus an extra 5300 second doses. Tomorrow the number vaccinated will exceed the official number of cases identified.

So why so many tests today, if it's postal tests carrying over from the weekend, that used to be coming in on wed/thu, and now it's Friday (due to postal problems?) that means there's more time where people are in the "maybe I have it, maybe I don't" case and perhaps not fully isolating, especially if they quickly felt better from whatever triggered the test?

Or is there some other hypothesis for Friday now being the peak?

@MRex

Thanks *@lunar1*, I was hoping it would be 45k but you're quite right it's still the right direction on a weekly basis. Looks like a few increases in Birmingham, Liverpool and Lancashire still that it would be nice to see go down. It's nice in my area to see the blue creeping back in, reassuring.

Honestly I wish I could just block out the numbers for a while, I'm desperate to see them dropping.

I remember last year when they were down at 500, I actually had a panic attack when they went back to 3000.

I'm trying to switch my obsession to the vaccine figures now!

The table of councils on the www.covidmessenger.com homepage is updated.

Lots of green!

200 councils have falling cases week-over-week
114 councils have rising cases week-over-week

Pfizer deliveries reducing for some time: www.ft.com/content/e8177df6-04ae-4d20-8e62-ca76589c7653 - Norway are to get just 36,075 next week, that's only 5,000 first doses per day. Unknown impact on UK doses but maybe a similar 18% reduction.
beta.cp24.com/news/2021/1/14/1_5267155.html - not much better in Canada where they are looking at 5.5m total Pfizer and Moderna doses up to end of March; given how much they bought there must be some irritation inside the Canadian government at progress (given 2 doses are needed from that, they can vaccinate fewer than UK already has by end March): beta.cp24.com/news/2021/1/14/1_5267155.html.

@littleowl1

The table of councils on the www.covidmessenger.com homepage is updated.

Lots of green!

200 councils have falling cases week-over-week
114 councils have rising cases week-over-week

Brilliant

Yes, I am actually quite impressed with how testing and vaccination programs have been progressing. I think UK did a really good job securing vaccines.

I also know people tend to complain about Test and Trace. I have had a first hand experience with the “Test” side of things this week when I had to test by 4 year old and the whole process turned out smooth and efficient. DD started coughing at nursery, I was pretty sure it was not COVID (I know my DD’s winter coughs and I also know that cough is not a common symptom in very young children) but, of course, we got her tested. We booked the test in the local walk-in testing centre for the same day, The negative result came back the following day. Of course, it is only a one-off experience but it seemed a well run operation.

The vaccination numbers looking really promising.

Certainly for England overall a downward drift in case numbers is becoming very clear.

Although we need the drift to gather a lot more pace. To give some context.

Monday 11th jan spec date currently stands at 50136, not fully reported through yet so likely to end up nearer 55,000 than 50,000.

So that is significantly down on the 68946 for Monday 4th.

However that current number of 50136 is higher than the total number of cases of cases recorded in July and August combined - 49,113.

So cautious optimism yes, but let’s not start seeing things through rose tinted glasses just yet.

And thank you from me. I hated the “doom scrolling “ you get from reading the press and go here for a non emotive , factual update. The reminder that even though these figures were disappointingly higher than the start of the week, seeing the WOW comparison is reassuring. Getting there, slowly

1st dose vaccination numbers (reported date) were 3,234,946 (cumulative total) for yesterday so I'm assuming today they passed the 3,316,019 figure, which is the latest figure for total number of UK confirmed cases so far.
Feels like a bit of a milestone even though obviously we don't know how many untested people have had covid!

Not natural peak but suppressed peak - Vallance

Always worth reiterating imo

Listening to briefing

Whitty and Valance aren’t holding back - good for them. Although whether Boris can contain the large libertarian right of his party - not convinced.

Whitty showing a bit of gentle reprimand to Boris!

Thanks @littleowl1 for all your hard work. Your table is so helpful and such stark proof that lockdown does work in suppressing case numbers. Really hope to see them come down more in coming days and that schools don't have too much effect.

Still rising in my area but it's slowed thankfully.

@sirfred The testing numbers reported today are the tests carried out yesterday, so could be more postal tests carried out away from the weekend. I also wonder whether people might be doing more lateral flow tests in a Friday - a lot of workplaces have handed people loads on them to self administer as they like - would they maybe test themselves on a Friday before seeing any family, etc? (Ds gets free testing in his lab and generally does one the day before we're due to meet for a walk)

www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/

Travelling tabby’s graphical representation of the vaccine rollout I think is a clear (and heartening) one

Vaccination numbers continuing the upwards trend. My local GP group has done none at all yet, but due to start up tomorrow, so possibly others on the same timetable. They've been inundated with volunteers to man the car park, etc following a FB appeal, despite a weather forecast of rain and sleet here tomorrow