Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th Jan

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Hope this isn't too uninformed a question but here goes. The dashboard shows deaths at 1564 - what was the 1248 being reported below?

That’s yesterday’s death number - perhaps need to refresh the screen or clear cache?

Thanks ceevee - strange as it is saying updated on Thursday at 10.40pm but still showing the previous day's number. Will try clearing caches!

@Aixenprovence
You can also bypass the cache with a hard refresh of ctrl+shift+R

@Hardbackwriter

I'm in Tendring, although not in Clacton, which is where numbers have gone crazy the last few weeks. In fact I 'm much closer to Colchester and Suffolk (ok sure you can guess where I am now). Our numbers peaked just above 600/100000, while in Clacton they went up to 2000/100000.

The good news is that along with Colchester and Barbergh (Suffolk), our numbers stabilised over this week and have started dropping. We're now just below 600 after peaking at 650(ish).

Even Clacton is starting to see signs of numbers dropping, the part I was looking at (where I used to live) has dropped from above 2000 to just below according to yesterday's dashboard.

And the Zoe app is now showing a considerable drop in active infections from a peak of almost 4000 to under 3000

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/whitehall-sources-predict-all-over-50s-will-get-covid-vaccine-by-end-of-march-28p9hqz2g
Good news on vaccine rollout.

I’ve been fairly calm throughout this but am starting to twitch with this Brazil variant issue. What’s the concern with it - is it even more transmissible ? Vaccine still largely ok isn’t it (if less efficacy?). Not even opening the main coronavirus board! BBC seems to be going in a bit alarmist so coming here for sensible analysis!!

@JanuaryChill

Issue reported yesterday with the plan to discharge patients to special "red" care homes - they can't get insurance, it's not working.....

Can you link to the report so I can take a look - had a google and can't find anything.

The news I saw yesterday didn't mention care homes, just hotels and the Nightingale - the Nightingale specifically used for non-coved patients (although those could be people who aren't infections any more but still returning positive PCR tests which I think can happen for quite a while - can someone correct me on this if i'm wrong).

Thanks

Thanks all - now have the current figures!

One encouraging thing is that if you compare the 7% fall in positive results to 14th Jan with the 25% increase in numbers of tests to the 13th Jan (which I know you can't really do, as it's much more complicated but is a 'sort of' guide) that does at least suggest a significant fall in overall cases - as other surveys are also suggesting.

I have nothing clever to add here but am posting to keep up! And also to say thanks for some sanity amongst the madness. Love some good numbers!

This week’s ONS infection survey delayed just reported on Beeb News Channel. Only half listening but lab delays / quality issues cited. Implied unlikely anything will be published today - remains to be seen if will be the actual case

@FleeingBlue here’s some reporting from the FT, it was also a segment on BBC News

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/1e8ad507-954b-4ab3-ac7d-a630861ac991

tootyfruitypickle

There are two new variants being discussed which have just been discovered in Brazil.

One is of no particular concern . It has many mutations but two in particular are concerning mutations:

N501Y : in “U.K.” variant and the “SA” variant.
this is in the receptor binding domain of the spike and makes it better at binding to ACE2 receptors and getting into the body, meaning you need less virus particles to becomes infected and the variant is more transmissible.

E484K: Also in the “SA” variant. this is also in the spike and seems to make the variant less susceptible to antibodies. It is one of the bits of the virus protein which signals to our immune systems to recognise and kill off the virus. is also being referred to as escape mutant but it doesn’t really mean to virus can escape vaccination or natural antibodies from previous infections. It may mean vaccines don’t work as well and preexisting immunity doesn’t protect you from reinfection.

There is particular worry for this because so many (est. 75%) had covid in this part of Brazil but they are now seeing an an explosion of infections.

Please read

mobile.twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1349207412159504384

And

mobile.twitter.com/trvrb/status/1349774308202094594

I really think that 75% study is questionable considering how participation was incentivised and estimates were extrapolated. Other estimates have suggested half that prevalence. So we shouldn’t jump to conclusions.

Yes, the numbers are low for this as well, but according to Bill Hanage, they won’t be that much lower.

It is still true that in Manaus they had a very high level of exposure the first time around. Way more than here.

See the follow up thread from Bill

mobile.twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1349943613514526723

The Times reporting that Zoe shows a drop of 23% in cases and R going down to 0.9. Screenshot attached as behind a paywall

@everythingthelighttouches. Thanks. I follow Bill Hanage on your recommendation, very interesting guy.
I see the BBC have downgraded their headline now.

Good that article worried me too!

@JanuaryChill

I think the behavioural consequences of LFT use is actually more important in terms of infection control.

If they are used in schools, and probably elsewhere, the risk isn't just that people take a negative as a "green light", "Hooray I don't have Covid (today)!". It's also that people will go/send their children into work/school WITH SYMPTOMS, because "It's fine, they're going to be tested when they get there!" They may or may not admit to having symptoms. Then they may get a negative result - according to Deeks over 90% of infected cases could result in a negative with the LFT - and go merrily. about their day or week, with not a hint of self isolating.

This is similar to what happened in our senior school. Tested on the Tuesday whole year negative, Wednesday morning one of the pupils feels generally unwell. Parents call school and the school say because negative Tues send them in and see how they go. This child two days later develops Corona symptoms and half the class catch it.

Here is the paper about the estimated prevalence in Manaus for anyone interested science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6526/288

On Twitter people have pointed to claims that people were incentivised to participate as it was a way to gain access to a covid test. That’s not stated explicitly in the paper. Could be a Twitter lie. But if true deserves a lot of consideration.

A few interesting things about the paper. I thought the discussion explaining the different IFRs between Manaus and Sao Paolo was of interest.

Not sure overall. I think Hanage is right to call the evidence “circumstantial”.

Thought some of you may be interested in this www.gov.uk/government/news/past-covid-19-infection-provides-some-immunity-but-people-may-still-carry-and-transmit-virus

It’s from research in the SIREN study (healthcare worker surveillance of infection and antibodies) and I’ve had a message saying they’re due to release their interim report in the next few days (I’m part of it)

Ive just noticed that Worldometer now includes the number of people recovered, still infected and serious, that information previously said N/A next to the UK.

So according to the last update (yesterday)

1406967 have recovered
1767276 are currently still infected
3496 are serious or critical

55761 new cases
1280 deaths

Just checked my hometown on covid messenger, its weird as it says we are rising yet we are going lower down each time I check. I guess it must mean we are rising slower than other areas as we were position 17, then 20 and now 24 but still rising - does that make sense?

55k? It was going in the right direction. What's happened now? Urgh.