Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th Jan

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Thank you for all of this information. I was getting rather stressed but, the explanations and figures make me feel a bit better.

@Firefliess

From PHE Twitter: UK vaccination data up to 13 January 2021:

2,918,252 people in total have received a first dose

This is a 278,943 increase on the previous day

I work that out as a 34% day on day increase since yesterday, so heading up as we need it to.

Thats not overly far off where we need to be daily to get to the 15m vaccines by mid Feb. Back of a fag packet maths says 400k per day and now the Oxford vaccine is rolling out and centres opening I can envisage numbers ramping up quickly

God, the deaths for 11 Jan is 937 already, and every day for the 7 previous days it's over 800.

Hospital admissions still rising fast - over 4000 in England alone for the 12th (most recent day published) That's not good for NHS people (or the rest of us if we get sick)

I don't check positivity rates every day but I was surprised to see in my area they have risen to over 10% every day in Jan.

I think the behavioural consequences of LFT use is actually more important in terms of infection control.

If they are used in schools, and probably elsewhere, the risk isn't just that people take a negative as a "green light", "Hooray I don't have Covid (today)!". It's also that people will go/send their children into work/school WITH SYMPTOMS, because "It's fine, they're going to be tested when they get there!" They may or may not admit to having symptoms. Then they may get a negative result - according to Deeks over 90% of infected cases could result in a negative with the LFT - and go merrily. about their day or week, with not a hint of self isolating.

@Endoftether20 - the government doesn't of course need to vaccinate 15m by mid February to keep its promise - vaccine take-up looks to be pretty high in the older age groups, but it's never going to be 100%. Though I guess there's also some 50-69 year olds likely to sneak in early in the areas that are moving fastest. I agree with you that it's ramping up nicely and looks realistic for me to tell my 72 year old mum that she should have it within a month.

Good point January.

Yes that is a further worry with those tests isn't it @January? I don't know why the manufacturers say they're not designed for asymptomatic testing - it looks to me that that's about all they are good for. It's a hard balance though - some people may turn up to work or school anyway with symptoms, so at least with the instant tests there's a chance of catching them.

True @Firefliess

Mybreadng this evening seems to throw up that there's quite a difference in the Excalibur and the Innova LFTs. Certainly in terms of licensing.

Over 90% of infected cases could result in a negative LFT, but do we know what % of infectious cases could result in a negative LFT?

I agree the behavioural stuff is critical, but I still don’t think we can assume what the behaviour implications would be, even if they seem common sense.

That Daily Mail article was quite informative tbf.

[quote Firefliess]@Endoftether20 - the government doesn't of course need to vaccinate 15m by mid February to keep its promise - vaccine take-up looks to be pretty high in the older age groups, but it's never going to be 100%. Though I guess there's also some 50-69 year olds likely to sneak in early in the areas that are moving fastest. I agree with you that it's ramping up nicely and looks realistic for me to tell my 72 year old mum that she should have it within a month. [/quote]
Yep. As I say it was just a quick daily calculation based on the 15m and numbers are increasing nicely each day, hopefully even more so over the next week with vaccine centres opening, pharmacies now starting to vaccinate etc.

It feels good to see some light at the end of the tunnel and I am now allowing myself to believe it is indeed there although I do think we are in for some tough tough weeks ahead both death wise and for the NHS figures unfortunately

@Firefliess

Hospital admissions still rising fast - over 4000 in England alone for the 12th (most recent day published) That's not good for NHS people (or the rest of us if we get sick)

It's true that admission figures are alarmingly high and rising but unless i've missed it we aren't given data on how many patients have been discharged. The figure showing number in hospital at any one time is rising but at a slower rate.

There were reports that London hospitals are moving some patients into hotel accommodation to continue recovery and also some to the Nightingale. Does anyone know if these factor into their in-patient numbers?

@FleeingBlue I wonder is that patients that are “medically fit for discharge” but don’t have anywhere to go as care homes won’t accept them (due to insurance/covid)/they can’t get a home care package sorted quickly enough? I know that’s an issue in NI hospitals currently and the chief executives of the health trusts released a statement on it at the weekend. If they’re medically fit and are just being convalesced there would they maybe count as other institution/care home rather than hospital number? Don’t know the answer

Link below is minister of health’s Twitter share of the statement.
twitter.com/robinswannmoh/status/1348370334844645377?s=21

@Firefliess

From PHE Twitter: UK vaccination data up to 13 January 2021:

2,918,252 people in total have received a first dose

This is a 278,943 increase on the previous day

I work that out as a 34% day on day increase since yesterday, so heading up as we need it to.

That’s some good news, at least.

Yet my town in Kent has the worst death rate in the UK and has dispensed zero vaccinations. Clearly very patchy distribution at this point.

Given the very late data release last night, the www.covidmessenger.com homepage wasn't updated till this morning.

It is up to date now - FYI

.

Issue reported yesterday with the plan to discharge patients to special "red" care homes - they can't get insurance, it's not working.....

@littleowl1

Given the very late data release last night, the www.covidmessenger.com homepage wasn't updated till this morning.

It is up to date now - FYI

.

Thank you. Interestingly my area is falling over the last week, we border Kent and went into tier 4 with them. Neighbouring area the other side did not, had Christmas mixing and is still rising.

@CatVsChristmasTree

Indeed, I am in Kent too. Kent and Essex are all green bar one. And both counties had tougher restrictions earlier so at least we know the restrictions work on the new variant.

I feel the mid December Tier 4 restrictions + Xmas restrictions for Tier 4 + schools closed for holidays was a psuedo-lockdown. So these counties have turned the corner. Or at least, I really hope so. I know Kent hospitals have been stretched since Dec so really hope the lower case rates feed into lower admissions and take the pressure off the hospitals.

My former Tier 2 City has been shooting up the tables.

But the cases recorded daily seems to be showing.

I think about a week ago they said 10 to 14 days for the peak. That seems to be accurate & I think it will start to go down in next week or so.

I guess many areas will be the same.

More and more are green on Little Owls page which is good news.

[quote littleowl1]@CatVsChristmasTree

Indeed, I am in Kent too. Kent and Essex are all green bar one. And both counties had tougher restrictions earlier so at least we know the restrictions work on the new variant.

I feel the mid December Tier 4 restrictions + Xmas restrictions for Tier 4 + schools closed for holidays was a psuedo-lockdown. So these counties have turned the corner. Or at least, I really hope so. I know Kent hospitals have been stretched since Dec so really hope the lower case rates feed into lower admissions and take the pressure off the hospitals.[/quote]
As an Essex person the bar one is worrying though - I don't live in Tendring but nearby and the rates are so bad and continuing to climb and it's such an elderly place, on the whole

Thank you for updating early this morning, littleowl - you do an amazing job

Tendring and Colchester (and Uttlesford) were the last to go into Tier 4 in Essex and with the deprivation in parts of Tendring I'm not surprised that it's lagging behind in the slowing of cases.

Tendring was one of the places still in tier 2 over Christmas though. I agree it’s not good- especially as I believe they have an older and poorer demographic.

www.essexlive.news/news/essex-news/essex-covid-tendring-residents-susceptible-4886285

East kent University Trust does look like it's starting to see a reduction in admissions and potentially in patients in hospitals as well. Still early days but a little hopeful....