Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th Jan

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Yes - it’s nice to see the real person behind the hard work

Sorry piggy was a bit garbled - I mean, were these tests ever meant to have a negative treated as a 'green light' or confirmation that you're not infected? I assumed not - as far as I've read it's always been the intention to quickly pick up some proportion of asymptomatic infected people that wouldn't otherwise get tested, to prompt them to pcr test.
I don't think the intention was ever to use them to 'certify non infection'.
If the concerns are "due to concerns that they give people false reassurance if they test negative" then maybe don't reassure people they are negative if they test negative - surely people can understand this if the messaging is clear?

I don't know what the threshold, cost etc would have to be to make these tests economically worthwhile but all other things being equal surely they have some value in picking up undetected positives. Just don't use them for 'confirming negatives'.

Yes, they were intended that way. If a child tested positive in or out of schol, close contacts would get daily testing and , if negative, remain in school. This, in effect, is a green light.

There wasn't really a plan to routine test students which is what a lot of people think : it was a mass test upon return and then 7 days of test if a contact . Only teachers were getting routine testing.

The manufacturer, NERVTAG and the MRHA all said no to this use, and especially because they oppose self administering LFTs. This is my understanding.

Ok, and I definitely see the point about self-administering. What are the reasons for the close contacts not having normal PCR tests and just isolating until they get the result? Lack of testing?

They shouldn't be testing at all really : just isolating. These test are all really not very good with asymptomatic cases.

1,248 deaths

Folks, for anyone who might be planning to check www.covidmessenger.com - I am actually going to hit the hay and get up early to refresh the table on the homepage.

Murphys Law will mean they will release the data 30 seconds after I log off so hopefully that will speed things up for anyone waiting!

48,682 new cases

Truly awful!

Murphys Law will mean they will release the data 30 seconds after I log off so hopefully that will speed things up for anyone waiting!*

They did!

@Piggywaspushed

They shouldn't be testing at all really : just isolating. These test are all really not very good with asymptomatic cases.

You mean the lft, the pcr, or both?

I still can't see the dashboard has been updated?

It hasn't.

Both, I thought? If you test too early the virus may not be present yet.

Asymptomatic testing does have its place but not in place of isolation.

Truly awful!

I am not sure I agree.

We need to be realistic in our expectations. We are not going to go from 60,000 cases to a very low number in a single week.

The week on week (Thursday to Thursday) decrease is 7.5%. Worth remembering that last Thursday was also "low" (52,000+ cases) - the Friday's number exceeded 68,000.

If tomorrow we will see fewer than 50,000-55,000 cases, it will confirm we are definitely moving in the right direction. I know the absolute number is still high but at this point it is all about the trend.

This article goes some way towards 'explaining' (??) the govt's machinations with the Innova LF tests:

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9127345/UK-coronavirus-Department-Health-rebranding-professional-use-kit-self-test.html

BBC news saying they only just got the numbers, 1248 deaths

Sorry, seen that others have posted that. Dashboard not yet updated for me?

Pouria Hadjibagheri @Pouriaaa on twitter the dashboard lead has just tweeted it'll be another 20 minutes. Still citing a technical problem.

Another take on the LFT issue - someone who disagrees with the decision mobile.twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1349831785018961921

The distinction that he makes is the difference between detecting cases vs detecting transmission.

A previous thread was also distinguishing between detecting infectedness and infectiousness through these tests.

My take away is that it is very much about how the tests are used. And I’m not sure it’s right for us to be guessing at the behavioural implications of these rapid tests - I feel this aspect needs to be studied like everything else.

The lateral flow tests seem a good idea to me if they are for people who work outside the home or students in schools - to pick up people who would otherwise be infecting others and not know it. And if they're 20% less effective when self administered but that enables ten times as many to be undertaken, that will catch eight times as many cases won't it?

There was a problem with the proposed was they were to be used in schools though, to test contacts daily as an alternative to isolating for 10 days. That seems a riskier way to use them, especially as the new variant is more transmissable meaning a higher proportion of contacts will in fact have caught it (about 10% of them, compared with about 7% previously I think from the article that was posted to from this thread a couple of days back).

Sorry I'm a lurker but just to say PHE have just tweeted the figures - same as BBC news, inc the vaccination figures - if anyone is interested

@FleeingBlue

Pouria Hadjibagheri *@Pouriaaa* on twitter the dashboard lead has just tweeted it'll be another 20 minutes. Still citing a technical problem.

And he’s now saying “ The traffic is too high, and it's causing the database to take longer... Just saying!” I am going to stop refreshing for a while!

Now updated.

From PHE Twitter: UK vaccination data up to 13 January 2021:

2,918,252 people in total have received a first dose

This is a 278,943 increase on the previous day

I work that out as a 34% day on day increase since yesterday, so heading up as we need it to.