Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th Jan

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

I've a friend in Guernsey, and they've been very careful. Isolation for 14 days for anyone coming in, and really strict measures. She says people are taking it far more seriously there, despite very few cases, than here.

@littleowl1 thanks for the latest analysis article. So clear and concise.

@Hardbackwriter

My friend who works at a hospital in London says that the number of patients has peaked because they've run out of beds.

I might be being thick about it but surely that could only explain numbers staying static, not falling?

New admissions will slow if there are no beds left. I don’t think the total number of patients in hospital is falling yet.

Spain showing nearly 39k new positives today. Does anyone know if that's just a catch-up figure?

There is actually a slight drop (2.5%) in the number of patients in hospital in the London region.

@ceeveebee

There is actually a slight drop (2.5%) in the number of patients in hospital in the London region.

That’s good to hear. Better than pp!

I don’t think the total number of patients in hospital is falling yet.

It may be falling although it is way too early to tell.

Number of COVID patients in London hospitals -

Jan 11 - 7,799 (potential peak?)
Jan 12 - 7,606
Jan 13 - 7,686

Based on this analysis, London can accommodate up to 8,000 COVID patients without draconian measures (allowing for 2% headroom) so while there is incredible pressure on healthcare, I do not think we can claim London is out of hospital beds:

www.hsj.co.uk/acute-care/exclusive-london-will-be-overwhelmed-by-covid-in-a-fortnight-says-leaked-nhs-england-briefing/7029264.article

I think a fair number of London patients are being sent elsewhere. My Sister In Bristol has been sent a few over the last couple of weeks.
Plus aren’t some patients being sent to care homes again?
Matt Hancock on channel 4 news tonight also touched on the Oxygen issues due to large numbers of inpatients due to Covid. So they may have to limit patients on Cpap etc due to the O2 availability or access and hence numbers, whilst not in theory being full.

The death figure today was the highest so far, which is awful. However, maybe we are already at the peak, as apparently most deaths happen around 13 days post first symptoms... 13 days ago it was New Year's Eve. (See YT channel of Dr John Campbell and his recent videos.)

We will probably have another very difficult week, before everything calms down a bit. At the same time vaccine numbers are rising rapidly, so I think in February things will look much brighter.

If hospitals are getting full up and sending patients to hotels or early discharge, then looking at the numbers in ICU might be a better indicator of actual patient demand. I think it's non-Covid ICU that tends to get bumped out the way when pressures increase (via cancelling surgery that would require ICU recovery time)

@Defenbaker

The death figure today was the highest so far, which is awful. However, maybe we are already at the peak, as apparently most deaths happen around 13 days post first symptoms... 13 days ago it was New Year's Eve. (See YT channel of Dr John Campbell and his recent videos.)

We will probably have another very difficult week, before everything calms down a bit. At the same time vaccine numbers are rising rapidly, so I think in February things will look much brighter.

I don't think we are at the peak sadly. I think we probably need another month before we start to see any benefit from vaccination programme.

@littleowl1

I have also updated the "latest analysis" article which shows the trends in cases in councils in Kent continuing to fall.

www.covidmessenger.com/latest-analysis/

I have also added a chart for councils in Essex - which shows the same trend.

And finally I have added a chart for councils in Greater London which looks like its about to plateau (although possibly a little early to tell but promising nonetheless!)

@littleowl1 thank you . I'm so grateful for the work that you are doing.

Not sure if anyone has posted this yet.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/950424/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w1_FINAL.PDF

Interesting at page 61 - "No significant excess all-cause mortality was observed in week 52 overall or by age group. and subnationally. Significant excess all-cause mortality was observed subnationally in London"
and then a table showing the weeks in which each region had excess (which I think must mean significant excess) deaths. Interesting - it does show how wide the non-significant variation (ie within 2 standard deviations) must be. (Although it does also say treat recent estimates wtih caution due to registration delays over Christmas.)

.

@Aixenprovence

Not sure if anyone has posted this yet. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/950424/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w1_FINAL.PDF

Interesting at page 61 - "No significant excess all-cause mortality was observed in week 52 overall or by age group. and subnationally. Significant excess all-cause mortality was observed subnationally in London"
and then a table showing the weeks in which each region had excess (which I think must mean significant excess) deaths. Interesting - it does show how wide the non-significant variation (ie within 2 standard deviations) must be. (Although it does also say treat recent estimates wtih caution due to registration delays over Christmas.)

I’ve seen an analysis on Fullfacts which suggests this is just due to holiday delays, and that PHE expect the final figures to show excess deaths:

fullfact.org/health/covid-excess-deaths-phe-jan-2021/

Thanks silence - very interesting! I can't quite 'match' the full fact to the PHE report (they may be talking about the previous phe report), but yes it does look as though we need to wait for more data!

Looks as though there is quite a distinction between 'excess deaths' (anything higher than the 5 yr average) and statistically significant excess deaths (outside 2 standard deviations?) Anyway, the phe report does say there were significant excess deaths in London in week 52.
I wonder if the PHE calculation of statistically significant excess deaths adjusts for changes in age composition - though not sure how much that has changed over 5 years?

These are deaths reported that day.
I heard January 6th was the worst actual date for death with 700 on the day

also i just read that we are not at the peak

Not sure if this belongs on the data thread, but hoping it falls into the 'analytical contributions' category! Interesting comment from Dr Mary Ramsay, PHE head of immunisation, to science and technology committee (taken from news report rather than transcript) that in due course we may need to accept a degree of circulation:

"We may need to accept, if the vaccine doesn't prevent transmission, that we're going to protect the people who are really vulnerable and going to die and have serious disease, but we allow the disease to circulate in younger people where it's not causing much harm.
"That may be the situation we go to, like we are with things like flu, that we accept that a lot of people get flu but we protect those who are most vulnerable.
"That may be the outcome, I'm hoping it will be a bit better than that."

BBC News - Past Covid-19 infection may provide 'months of immunity'
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55651518

Study that seems to suggest 83% immunity from having had Covid previously.

@Skipsurvey

These are deaths reported that day. I heard January 6th was the worst actual date for death with 700 on the day

also i just read that we are not at the peak

This chart is useful (RP131 on Twitter). It shows how today’s reported deaths relate to the date of death

From this we can see that the highest number by date of death is nearly 850 on 7 Jan, and it also shows that there are probably more deaths to be added to those days as realistically it takes up to 10 days for the figures to be complete

thank you @ceeveebee, so 12 days post christmas does look like it will get worse, unless the infections occurred mostly during christmas shopping.
People are complying after all, in high numbers.

@FleeingBlue

Spain showing nearly 39k new positives today. Does anyone know if that's just a catch-up figure?

I have been watching figures for other EU countries over the last few weeks, and Spain in particular is very poor at releasing stats. They often don't report at all, for days at a time, and previously it has been suggested they are way off for all their stats, historically as well as up to date. Catch ups are therefore inevitable.

The ECDC report will be out tomorrow and should shed some light. With the reduction in testing over the holiday period, case figures are less likely to be backlog (deaths are). This is 8th Jan report: www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/country-overviews

Israel Pfizer vaccine info - www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-data-shows-50-reduction-in-infections-14-days-after-first-vaccine-shot/. This looks like only 50-60% getting strong immunity by 14 days, is this because they're vaccinating elderly first or will it increase further up to the second dose? Or, controversial idea, does immunity naturally increase up to 4 weeks and even beyond, so the timescale of the booster isn't correct at 3 weeks?

I remember being criticised on here for saying that the UK had done a better job of processing tests over the holiday period and that EU countries would show a rise in a couple of weeks as the figures they were reporting were not accurate

It seems, that the data is now beginning to back up what I said