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Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th Jan

996 replies

NoGoodPunsLeft · 11/01/2021 11:03

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
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17
wintertravel1980 · 13/01/2021 17:26

Yes, hospital admissions in London and South East might have peaked on January 6th.

The numbers were 977 (!) in London and 716 in South East. The latest NHS file has got Jan 11 data and we are down to 795 and 607. Still high but is definitely a move in the right direction and proof that "one exercise a day" is not a requirement for driving numbers down,

sirfredfredgeorge · 13/01/2021 17:30

I would like to see some data on best approaches to education in this situation, for me yoyoing seems much better, it minimises the sedentary time - knowing that so many children are only active in peer environments, it minimises excessive indoor time for long periods - knowing that solid periods of low outdoor time leads to eyesight damage, it minimises time away from peers - knowing that short periods of isolation is preferable to long.

However, obviously that is only part of the knowledge, and the data on all those things is individual - the isolation data obviously is only on kids isolated while their peers continue in education as that's all that's been studied before. There's no evidence on how much home learning PE and parents mitigate the exercise etc. So I cannot say for sure, certainly personally I would much prefer yo-yoing, but I simply don't think there's any real evidence either way on what is best for child health and social development irrespective of its pandemic considerations.

LickEmbysmiling · 13/01/2021 17:35

Does anyone think there is a chance I can fly to Europe for Easter?

littleowl1 · 13/01/2021 17:37

I have also updated the "latest analysis" article which shows the trends in cases in councils in Kent continuing to fall.

www.covidmessenger.com/latest-analysis/

I have also added a chart for councils in Essex - which shows the same trend.

And finally I have added a chart for councils in Greater London which looks like its about to plateau (although possibly a little early to tell but promising nonetheless!)

thepeopleversuswork · 13/01/2021 17:41

This absolutely terrifies me! That would potentially mean the kids are not going back until the Autumn term - possibly later sad

I'm not a scientist but I think this is next to impossible. Even if the vaccine rollout is much slower than promised the highest-risk groups should have been done by early summer and hopefully a large chunk of the wider population.

The reason to keep kids out of school isn't to try to eradicate the virus, its to prevent the unnecessary deaths of high-risk people and to stop the NHS collapsing. As soon as that is on a steady trajectory downwards the govt will be under huge pressure to open schools again. Keeping schools closed that long would cause a huge political crisis: they won't keep them closed any longer than they have to.

MarshaBradyo · 13/01/2021 17:43

Once we lower hospitalisation we might not report (or even count?) case numbers. Things will change a lot. Hard to see now from this heightened lock down. But economic pressures will surface and with that education.

oneglassandpuzzled · 13/01/2021 17:49

@littleowl1

I have also updated the "latest analysis" article which shows the trends in cases in councils in Kent continuing to fall.

www.covidmessenger.com/latest-analysis/

I have also added a chart for councils in Essex - which shows the same trend.

And finally I have added a chart for councils in Greater London which looks like its about to plateau (although possibly a little early to tell but promising nonetheless!)

Thank you!
Firefliess · 13/01/2021 18:04

The best strategy for schools depends in part on whether we think substantial transmission is occurring within them, or children are mainly picking up Covid from outside school. If we think it occurs within schools too (which I think is likely, at least at secondary level) then moving to an alternate week online/face to face has a lot to offer, as it prevents outbreaks getting out of control - an infectious child in school one week will infect classmates, but by the time the classmates are infectious they'll be in their online week, so the outbreak won't go any further. It's an awful lot better for kids socially and academically than full time online (DD's sixth form had this alternate week schooling all last term and it was fine) and will be better for transmission than full time school.

Firefliess · 13/01/2021 18:10

207,661 vaccinated today btw. Up from 145k yesterday - we just need to keep up that 43% day on day growth in vaccination numbers and we'll soon be out of this!

It also means that today was the first day that more people received the vaccination that caught Covid naturally (estimated at around 150k per day in latest ONS survey) which I think is a good landmark.

They've improved that section of the dashboard today too, so you can see the daily figure for the whole of the UK more easily.

littleowl1 · 13/01/2021 18:12

@FleeingBlue Thank you for spotting this.

I have fixed the sorting so should be fine now!

Hardbackwriter · 13/01/2021 18:28

@Firefliess

The best strategy for schools depends in part on whether we think substantial transmission is occurring within them, or children are mainly picking up Covid from outside school. If we think it occurs within schools too (which I think is likely, at least at secondary level) then moving to an alternate week online/face to face has a lot to offer, as it prevents outbreaks getting out of control - an infectious child in school one week will infect classmates, but by the time the classmates are infectious they'll be in their online week, so the outbreak won't go any further. It's an awful lot better for kids socially and academically than full time online (DD's sixth form had this alternate week schooling all last term and it was fine) and will be better for transmission than full time school.
Logistically I think the biggest issue with this is keyworker/vulnerable children (which is I guess much less of an issue for a sixth form) - in a primary if, say, one-third of the class have to be in all the time then you can't break the transmission chain like that, and nor do you really get much of the benefit of greater distancing, so the benefit of sending one-third of the class home each week starts to look quite marginal.
FleeingBlue · 13/01/2021 18:33

[quote littleowl1]@FleeingBlue Thank you for spotting this.

I have fixed the sorting so should be fine now![/quote]
@littleowl1 - still not working for me, in fact I noticed that most of the columns with number data in them are not sorting properly.

LickEmbysmiling · 13/01/2021 18:43

Does anyone think I'm being mad to think I'll be flying to Europe at Easter?

Fire, re school they are banking everything's on unreliable tests unfortunately. They will force all dc in and use these tests.

Firefliess · 13/01/2021 18:45

Yes you're right @hardbackwriter I was thinking more about secondaries. I think at the upper end of secondary (Y9+) we really shouldn't have any keyworker children in anyway, as they should be able to be left home alone without issue. DD's sixth form doesn't offer any keyworker provision at all. They have offered supervised study provision for those who lack space/WiFi/motivation to study independently online, which involves a small number of kids being vaguely watched over while they sit spaced out in a hall while joining in their online lessons from laptops. It sounds sufficiently boring to have uptake only from those who really need it.

I don't think you could offer alternate week schooling at primary age if you also have large numbers of keyworker kids in. My local primary has managed to keep their numbers down to about 3/60 in a year though by a large amount of harassing those asking for keyworker places I hear! So might work ok if you could keep numbers that low - some parents could probably cope with kids at home half time, but take up keyworker places when it's all or nothing.

MRex · 13/01/2021 18:50

@sirfredfredgeorge - the problem is that with isolation the kids can't go out for exercise at all whenever they are off school, so it's not a normal comparison.

JanuaryChill · 13/01/2021 19:03

Have people heard about this trial, so thought it was going to be a hoax when I saw the title but looks real!

www.asph.nhs.uk/latest-news/2610-covid-busting-nasal-spray-begins-uk-trials?fbclid=IwAR1hNniftRuBg7zkqjMF8zCYfMDs8F5dQHLxgaa-EvxVoihPC_17ja53E38

sirfredfredgeorge · 13/01/2021 19:07

the problem is that with isolation the kids can't go out for exercise at all whenever they are off school, so it's not a normal comparison

So your "yo-yo-ing" is only talking about isolation due to close contacts? something that only a minority of students were facing during the autumn term in any case, certainly there were some individual schools where that was high, but that is simply demonstrating that national approaches are mistaken. The schools in those areas were simply open when they should not have been.

With isolation of just some though, we get the situation of is numbers, the smaller amounts of harm to a million vs the larger amounts of harm to fifty thousand. We don't even have the evidence of that for the existing lockdowns of everyone else, let alone expecting it just for kids.

Mostly though it's clear that peoples description of yoyo-ing is not what I thought it was, and what they actually mean is isolating due to close contact in the school, not whole school moving to remote learning.

I'm not sure the evidence for 1 week in 1 week remote works btw, 7 days between infection isn't enough, better to go a bit further. Also general community spread is low enough that such schooling is viable, the kids will be meeting outside in any case, as I can't see any situation where community spread is low enough to not have everyone in lockdown, but high enough to require particular extra attention in schools.

Piggywaspushed · 13/01/2021 19:15

There were huge numbers of students nationwide isolating! OK, worse in some areas but very few unaffected. Attendance in secondary schools just before Christmas was at 70 %.

By Yo Yo ing I meant students being in and out as individuals due to illness or isolation. Rotas aren't yo yoing because they are preplanned.

I call it the Covid hokeycokey.

littleowl1 · 13/01/2021 19:17

@FleeingBlue Oh I am sorry that this is still happening. I have corrected it and cleared the webserver cache. This should mean that you get the new version BUT unfortunately, some browsers cache webpages on the your device to improve the perceived speed (ie so your browser is "giving" you the webpage from a couple of hours ago and not the latest).

To clear your cache /do a hard refresh you could try the steps in this article depending on what browser/device you have.

So sorry this is happening. I was doing some dev work this morning which had some errors which I did correct but it seems they are still cached but I am sure your browser will be smart enough to serve the new version tomorrow when I update the table. Im not brilliant at client/browser software so there might be someone on here with some better suggestions for refreshing to get the latest version of the homepage but this is what I found:

support.planwithvoyant.com/hc/en-us/articles/360046611171-How-to-do-hard-refresh-in-Chrome-Firefox-Safari-and-Microsoft-Edge#:~:text=Press%20Ctrl%20%2B%20Fn%20%2B%20F5%20on%20your%20keyboard.,-Or%20press%20Ctrl

NuttyinNotts · 13/01/2021 19:27

Wouldn't you have far fewer key worker and vulnerable pupils in if it was week on/week off? I'm imagining for many vulnerable children there'd be less concerns if they have alternate weeks. I also think there's probably a fair number of WFH key workers who could manage week on week off but struggle with full time kids at home. Part time key workers might also find it easier to arrange shifts around week on week off. I think you could probably tighten the eligibility for full time key worker places when a Rota system is in place fairly easily.

QueenStromba · 13/01/2021 19:45

@wintertravel1980

Yes, hospital admissions in London and South East might have peaked on January 6th.

The numbers were 977 (!) in London and 716 in South East. The latest NHS file has got Jan 11 data and we are down to 795 and 607. Still high but is definitely a move in the right direction and proof that "one exercise a day" is not a requirement for driving numbers down,

My friend who works at a hospital in London says that the number of patients has peaked because they've run out of beds.
JanuaryChill · 13/01/2021 20:09

@QueenStromba Shock

That has a terrifying logic however.

FWIW, the yoyoing of students was also caused by a school suddenly finding they didn't have enough staff at work in order to safely staff a school or year group - incombination wirh periodic self isolation of students. Some students had 3 or 4 periods of self isolation last term, mostly with only a few hours notice.

FleeingBlue · 13/01/2021 20:17

@littleowl1 - all working perfectly now, thank you!

tootyfruitypickle · 13/01/2021 21:38

I’ve just fallen down a rabbit hole looking into what’s happening in Channel Islands. In Jersey kids went back to school! They do have cases but it all looks very well handled. Anyone on here from there per chance ?

Hardbackwriter · 13/01/2021 21:58

My friend who works at a hospital in London says that the number of patients has peaked because they've run out of beds.

I might be being thick about it but surely that could only explain numbers staying static, not falling?