Lockdowns, even a stricter one is not going to work

[Icanseegreenshoots]

Unless we shut down every sector except for food, medical care and distribution this lockdown (or even a much stricter one) simply will not work.

Mostly everyone outside of hospitality/gyms is working as normal - I don't disagree with this - as we need an economy to return to. Supermarkets are packed, because people need food. Public transport in cities are rammed because people need to get to and from said work. Some schools are full because the key worker list is so long. The infection rate will continue as before.

The real elephant in the room is that we will have to furlough almost everyone in every sector to beat this new variant, and the government is just not prepared to do it/or can not afford to.

The new variant seems to be beating the odds even in areas that have already had a very hard lockdown for a long time, with no sign of it abating or even levelling off slightly. I don't believe it is the 'rule breakers' that are causing this at all, as I don't think in reality there are that many of them - certainly not enough. The new variant is so infectious that almost any attempt to stop it is futile and pointless, that is the truth of the matter.

Even if they stop all exercise, introduce zero household mixing and close nurseries, we will still continue to see a high infection rate, because even brief contact seems to be infecting people.

I am quite neutral in terms of how I feel about this, because at least we have a solution that will set us free in the coming months, but instead of blaming 'people' for not following the rules, we need to have a much closer look at the new variant, and being more honest about the limitations of this lockdown in the face of such an infectious strain.

There are very tentative signs things are levelling off.

Agreed. There's been no indoor mixing in Scotland for over 3 months, our nurseries are closed, schools been closed for almost a month and figures have never been higher. What the government should have been doing is investing in our NHS so it can cope with lots of sick people. I'm not sure why more people aren't angrier about the state of our NHS tbh, chronic underfunding is the Only reason for all the restrictions on our lives.

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.

peggy Chris Whitty has said we need to get the R down to under 1. We are absolutely nowhere near it anywhere in the country. It is levelling out at around 60,000 known infections a day.

myown I agree, Kent is a good example too. The lockdown this time is not going to work. The gov are blaming us, but I honestly don't think people on the whole are ignoring the rules and restrictions, they are simply not working.

What a

I'm not sure why more people aren't angrier about the state of our NHS tbh, chronic underfunding is the Only reason for all the restrictions on our lives.

Couldn’t agree more.

There are very tentative signs things are levelling off.

The rate needs to reduce before levelling off can be considered a good thing.

no They are applying the old logic of lockdown one and expecting the same result, but we did not have the new variant then.
I understand we all have to do our best to minimise any infection given the state of the hospitals BUT we can't be blamed and vilified because the infection rate is not shifting very much. Its not our fault.

Totally agree re NHS
And where’s that Brexit money, eh???

The government don’t actually want to take steps to halt this virus. They haven’t solved the red tape issue of the volunteers wanting to rejoin the nhs, they haven’t staffed the nightingale, they havent stipulated two key worker parents working out the home to limit school places. But they will no doubt close nurseries, limit shop numbers and daily exercise as some pathetic attempt to show they are trying.

I agree, Kent is a good example too. The lockdown this time is not going to work. The gov are blaming us, but I honestly don't think people on the whole are ignoring the rules and restrictions, they are simply not working.
This

As a society maybe we need to make some hard decisions.

The gov are blaming us, but I honestly don't think people on the whole are ignoring the rules and restrictions, they are simply not working.

I agree. I'm sat at my desk looking at the traffic, and it's normal Monday morning levels. That's people going to school and childcare, not people going to their mates en mass or partying.

It’s so difficult. There’s no perfect solution, but I’m on the fence. I work at one of those ‘heritage sites’ that is allowed to stay open. Everyone at head office is working from their kitchen whereas my team have to see hundreds of people a day on their “local” walks, bringing their kids in when we can’t be at home looking after our own kids. We have to drive to work which means we have to get petrol etc and mix with each other sharing facilities, cleaning the public toilets for our visitors. On the other hand, if we’re open I still have a job, so....I’m torn.

@Icanseegreenshoots

As a society maybe we need to make some hard decisions.

such as?

Most, not all, but most people are terrified in Kent. Properly terrified because there is compliance and the numbers keep going up, and many are too scared to even go out, much less mix with anyone else. They ARE taking it very very seriously, and yet nothing is changing. Nothing at all. Why are we not talking about that on Sophy Ridge? Are they too scared to tell us the real picture?

Hard decisions between salvaging what is left of the economy or shutting down completely until the vulnerable are vaccinated. We are doing a half way house now, trying to balance the two and it is not working tammy

The only thing that I feel would be a good idea is to block off non essential items in large shops such as B and M, Home Bargains, big supermarkets etc...to stop people going to browse with their families etc..? You could have quite a nice trip out going to all these places, having a look around and then stopping for a Costa and Mc D after!

Yes, I get the impression that the vast majority of cases are from the workplace, schools & colleges (more attendance than the March lockdown) care homes, the domestic environment etc. That is, prolonged indoor closeness. It seems less likely (though not impossible) to catch it outdoors, or from briefly passing a masked person in a shop or similar. I'm following the rules, and support them; but just beginning to wonder if it makes little difference. Honestly, not sure what the answer is to be honest... I'm no scientist of course, and so will follow their current advice, until it changes

I agree with you OP. I’m really uncomfortable with that fucking weasel Hancock blaming us when the problem is their fuckery which meant we were extremely badly placed to deal with the new variant.

I have just recovered from covid. I caught it from my mothers Carer on Christmas Eve.
My personal take is that people are being compliant but that this new viral variant doesn’t present in the same way as the public is told be aware of. I had no temperature, no continuous cough and lost sense of smell 4 days after testing positive. I just thought I was exhausted from a tough year and my mothers terminal illness.

So unless they change the primary symptom list people will still go about their business, particularly within the community, not believing they have covid but are just run down.

I’m in central London and it is very quiet. The only places that are busy are parks and I don’t have an issue with that. People need to get outside for their physical and mental well being!

This time next week it will be plain as day that this lockdown won't work because the new strain is too infectious, so unless the gov are going to deliver all food to every household and pay everyone to stay at home. I think we will still be in this position this time next month more or less.

I hope I am wrong.

They will blame the 'rule breakers' and general fatigue even if that is largely untrue - the truth is no matter what we do any contact with the new strain of virus will infect others - a 70% transmission is extremely high!

We’ve made it harder to spread as per the first lockdown. Hardly a surprise the virus evolves to counter that. It wants to live just like we do.

Problem for us is, society is so interlinked & the UK is so populous in the 21st century it’s so difficult to turn off all the taps.

Maybe with the ‘advantages’ of home delivery & home working that we wouldn’t have had even 20 years ago (so we’ve been fortunate in that sense) we’ll learn from this & make some changes going forward. Or maybe not?

Agree about NHS too.
That is where the logjam is.

food. medical care, distribution

Taking a look at the key worker list, what about firefighters, funeral staff[count as medical?], sewage workers, electric, water, gas,etc etc even accountants. Petrol attendants, garages. List is pretty endless.
Surprising how many essential services a country needs.