Lockdowns, even a stricter one is not going to work

[Icanseegreenshoots]

Unless we shut down every sector except for food, medical care and distribution this lockdown (or even a much stricter one) simply will not work.

Mostly everyone outside of hospitality/gyms is working as normal - I don't disagree with this - as we need an economy to return to. Supermarkets are packed, because people need food. Public transport in cities are rammed because people need to get to and from said work. Some schools are full because the key worker list is so long. The infection rate will continue as before.

The real elephant in the room is that we will have to furlough almost everyone in every sector to beat this new variant, and the government is just not prepared to do it/or can not afford to.

The new variant seems to be beating the odds even in areas that have already had a very hard lockdown for a long time, with no sign of it abating or even levelling off slightly. I don't believe it is the 'rule breakers' that are causing this at all, as I don't think in reality there are that many of them - certainly not enough. The new variant is so infectious that almost any attempt to stop it is futile and pointless, that is the truth of the matter.

Even if they stop all exercise, introduce zero household mixing and close nurseries, we will still continue to see a high infection rate, because even brief contact seems to be infecting people.

I am quite neutral in terms of how I feel about this, because at least we have a solution that will set us free in the coming months, but instead of blaming 'people' for not following the rules, we need to have a much closer look at the new variant, and being more honest about the limitations of this lockdown in the face of such an infectious strain.

light I just wonder how many have covid that then check the NHS symptom checker, see that their symptoms do not match - and decide they do not meet the criteria and so continue to work etc.
I don't think it is the sole reason for the infection rate going up so dramatically - but all of these smaller things are adding up.

@IceDiscoSkater
I agree with your comment. Safe ivory towers. Of course all of us who have to go to work would love the option to stay home and keep our families safe, so tired of people preaching when really they don’t understand.

I think there needs to be tighter restrictions.
Schools closed properly and nurseries
Anyone who doesn’t need to be out doesn’t go out
Bubbles only for those who actually need them.
No more excuses
Let those who need to go to work do so as sfrly as possible

Safely sorry for typos ion my phone

My area cases are down about 15% this week. South London borough.

@Icanseegreenshoots. I agree.
Admittedly, my symptoms were back in March last year[they started a day after Boris announced his covid]. So things were still very new then[I couldnt even get NHS111 to answer me, they hung up!!].
It was only after 6 days when I told people what I was experiencing, that they said I had covid. Fortunately I had started to self isolate anyway, so didnt pass it on to anyone else.
But like you, I think people still sometimes have it, dont know it, and pass it on unknowingly.

you are boring me a little now, actually

I have posted 2 comments on this thread and one of those was a one sentence question!

Why not engage in adult discussion instead of being rude?

@Secretsquirrelsbuddy
Yes it really gets to me , see a lot of people saying , schools are shut , we are lockdown WHY aren’t the numbers coming down ??...

In my view it’s nothing to do with household mixing , nobody I know in my broad circle is mixing or breaking rules

THEY ARE JUST GOING TO BLOODY WORK!

People are catching it at ESSENTIAL work places - food / maintenance/ driving / nhs

ALL the people I know who have caught it have been out working.
I think this new strain is going through masks or being absorbed through eyes ( mucous membranes in eyes ?) etc as again everyone has been wearing masks and distancing where possible.

Symptoms have been different too from friends that have had it in last month, tiredness and headaches top thing they have mentioned.

I think one issue might be the testing.

A colleague of my husband had been in contact with a positive covid case and so he self isolated. As part of his work he has to take routine twice weekly tests and continued to do so. He began to feel unwell and so continued to isolate but his routine tests did not come back as positive until the third test over ten days later. So he received two negative tests even though he had been exposed. If he had come out of isolation because of the first negative he would have spread it at work.

Yes I think the testing is also contributing to this.

1. The NHS symptoms do not cover a really high proportion of covid cases, so people who have a headache, fatigue, body aches, rash, sore throat are told they can't get a test as they don't have the three "main" symptoms even though thousands of people, especially with the new strain, are reporting only these symptoms. Some people rightly self-isolate anyway but others go away thinking they don't have covid and spread it around.

1. The lateral flow tests are massively inaccurate so people who actually have covid who get a negative test assume they don't have it and go into work/school and spread it.

1. The government guidance says that you don't have to isolate until track and trace contact you, but there can be massive delays in being contacted. So even if you know you are a close contact of a positive case some employers are making people go in until they have been officially notified by track and trace. There have been threads on here where this happened.

1. People who can't afford not to go to work will go to work even with symptoms so they can feed their families.

1. Unscrupulous employers are telling people to come in even when they test positive (many threads on here about this, including one at McDonald's, wonder how many people they infected through their takeaway...).

1. The new variant seems to spread really easily indoors so key workers are at huge risk eg supermarkets, doctors, teachers etc.

1. Some people are idiots and don't bother following the rules because they think they are special.

Apparently I can't count...

ice I agree entirely. There is definitely more to it. Everyone is wearing masks, staying in and following the advice. The headaches have been the key thing. The one thing everyone seems to report on and agree is the headache is very bad for the first few days.
Who would think a blinding headache would be covid? I would just take paracetamol and carry on without a thought.

eeeno The drive through testing especially. How many people are actually testing themselves properly? It is very hard to swab your own tonsils for ten seconds in a cramped car with only a small mirror to help - without gagging and doing so correctly. Most people stop worrying about covid after one negative test. The lateral tests are even worse in terms of accuracy.

None of these things will make a big difference alone, but they all add up. Some of our schools are 60% full so I can't see the infection rate going down even if we didn't have the new variant. The roads are packed with cars, supermarkets ditto. I don't think it is unreasonable to assume that had the vaccine not be in place, the infection rate would continue on until every last person was infected as it stands now.

In the case of my cousin, who is currently in hospital (42 and perfectly healthy) and is seriously ill, he has had covid now for nearly two weeks, and track and trace still haven't contacted anyone at all. I think they have given up! It was down to his family and friends to contact everyone 'they knew' I know we are in a hotspot, but more could and should have been done.

That's awful.