Lockdowns, even a stricter one is not going to work

[Icanseegreenshoots]

Unless we shut down every sector except for food, medical care and distribution this lockdown (or even a much stricter one) simply will not work.

Mostly everyone outside of hospitality/gyms is working as normal - I don't disagree with this - as we need an economy to return to. Supermarkets are packed, because people need food. Public transport in cities are rammed because people need to get to and from said work. Some schools are full because the key worker list is so long. The infection rate will continue as before.

The real elephant in the room is that we will have to furlough almost everyone in every sector to beat this new variant, and the government is just not prepared to do it/or can not afford to.

The new variant seems to be beating the odds even in areas that have already had a very hard lockdown for a long time, with no sign of it abating or even levelling off slightly. I don't believe it is the 'rule breakers' that are causing this at all, as I don't think in reality there are that many of them - certainly not enough. The new variant is so infectious that almost any attempt to stop it is futile and pointless, that is the truth of the matter.

Even if they stop all exercise, introduce zero household mixing and close nurseries, we will still continue to see a high infection rate, because even brief contact seems to be infecting people.

I am quite neutral in terms of how I feel about this, because at least we have a solution that will set us free in the coming months, but instead of blaming 'people' for not following the rules, we need to have a much closer look at the new variant, and being more honest about the limitations of this lockdown in the face of such an infectious strain.

@MyOwnPrivatePaddlingPool

Agreed. There's been no indoor mixing in Scotland for over 3 months, our nurseries are closed, schools been closed for almost a month and figures have never been higher. What the government should have been doing is investing in our NHS so it can cope with lots of sick people. I'm not sure why more people aren't angrier about the state of our NHS tbh, chronic underfunding is the Only reason for all the restrictions on our lives.

No healthcare system in the world can cope with Covid however much funding you throw at it. Chronic underfunding is not why we are where we are.

mummy Living in an isolated way is easier now than before, but also our expectations of life expectancy and health have also increased, and our living standards as well.

What is happening now is more worrying than before, because our collective actions can not be seen in the numbers - and I am not talking about the latest lockdown but the areas that have been in a virtual lockdown since the autumn.

@Icanseegreenshoots

no They are applying the old logic of lockdown one and expecting the same result, but we did not have the new variant then. I understand we all have to do our best to minimise any infection given the state of the hospitals BUT we can't be blamed and vilified because the infection rate is not shifting very much. Its not our fault.

The first post I’ve agreed with on MN in a long time. Well said. Fed up of the ‘rule breakers’ being blamed for what’s happening now.

I genuinely don’t think people are catching it from sitting on a park bench or in the supermarket. It is being passed on in hospitals, workplaces, schools, places of worship where people are spending over 30 mins within the vicinity of an infected individual. It is not being passed on by the public doing their shop or buying a coffee

Surprising how many essential services a country needs

Yes and this is the problem with a new variant that is 70% transmissible.

And the fact the virus has mutated to be more contagious, which means more people will catch it, so it makes sense that as a % of population more people are admitted to hospital 🤪

Mostly everyone outside of hospitality/gyms is working as normal

I don't think this is true? I don't know anyone who has left the house to work (except a doctor) in almost a year now.

I think the gov have a problem brewing on their hands as soon the population will reach lockdown burnout. I think the gov are aware of this and are going for a last push to make people comply

I work in finance and no one is allowed into the office, I don’t know anyone who is in work that can work from home 🤷🏻‍♀️

Icanseegreenshoots
no They are applying the old logic of lockdown one and expecting the same result, but we did not have the new variant then.
I understand we all have to do our best to minimise any infection given the state of the hospitals BUT we can't be blamed and vilified because the infection rate is not shifting very much. Its not our fault.

100% agree with this!

We can't let our hospitals down by simply saying to them that nothing we do will make a difference to the infections rate, sorry but we tried but our sacrifices seem largely pointless.
Even if that ends up being the absolute truth, that will never will be allowed to be the narrative - so the public will be continued to be blamed for non compliance and rebelliousness even if it is untrue (and they know it) and it will continue to cause division and anger when it shouldn't.

Sitting on a park bench is not going to give you covid, but working in a packed and warm factory might.
But as we need the factory to provide us food so we are not going to fine them, but we will fine the easy targets instead, and blame them for the infection and death rate.

The whole situation is becoming so messed up. The police are buying into this idea that there is mass non compliance, even fining two women that were doing something perfectly legal. Walking with a friend is allowed, drinking a warm drink is allowed. So now we see a very sinister development. The scapegoating of the public to cover for the fact that we are not able to control this new variant.

I don't know anybody out at work other than in retail, education or medical care...
I'd agree too that some shops need to operate solely on delivery and cease click and collect...
But if not lockdown what's the alternative OP? We are at crisis point now and getting nowhere-surely we have to at least try???

but looking at the Zoe app the numbers are going down in London

@Icanseegreenshoots

We can't let our hospitals down by simply saying to them that nothing we do will make a difference to the infections rate, sorry but we tried but our sacrifices seem largely pointless. Even if that ends up being the absolute truth, that will never will be allowed to be the narrative - so the public will be continued to be blamed for non compliance and rebelliousness even if it is untrue (and they know it) and it will continue to cause division and anger when it shouldn't.

Sitting on a park bench is not going to give you covid, but working in a packed and warm factory might.
But as we need the factory to provide us food so we are not going to fine them, but we will fine the easy targets instead, and blame them for the infection and death rate.

The whole situation is becoming so messed up. The police are buying into this idea that there is mass non compliance, even fining two women that were doing something perfectly legal. Walking with a friend is allowed, drinking a warm drink is allowed. So now we see a very sinister development. The scapegoating of the public to cover for the fact that we are not able to control this new variant.

Totally agree again

And I also agree that no health system could cope with Covid, but if the NHS hadn’t been underfunded and neglected for so long it might have lasted a bit longer than ending up in the shite at the very start of winter. Still, this is what people voted for.

I don’t see that funding has anything to do with the situation we are in. The reason the hospitals are so overwhelmed is that 000’s of medical professionals are isolating with covid symptoms. How can the government plan and fund that in any meaningful way?

I agree with a lot of what is being said on this thread, but would query (from my non-scientific perspective!) the idea that the R isn’t approaching 1. If rates are levelling off, surely that means that the R is around 1 (for the country on average)? Rates didn’t start dropping immediately after the first lockdown, so I think we’ve some reason to be somewhat hopeful this lockdown is having an effect. Compared to the exponential growth we were seeing in late December, levelling off is a huge improvement!

I don’t know what could be done that would see a levelling off turn into a decline, but the lockdown is clearly having some positive impact given that the daily number of infections isn’t still growing.

Our hospitals and systems were not designed to deal with a pandemic of this size. There is not a country in the world that will have a healthcare system that could withstand the current variant (and possibly ones that are even more infectious) They will simply prioritise ruthlessly or buckle.

I don't agree that everyone outside those industries is working as normal. Everyone I know with an office based job is working from home and most have been since March 2020.

tiny I am not sure London is out of the woods with 1 in every 30 having covid.

www.ndtv.com/world-news/one-in-30-now-has-covid-london-mayor-sadiq-khan-declares-major-incident-2349777

London is lucky to have a younger population, and may reach herd immunity faster than other areas.

There's still a lot of question marks about the degree of transmissibilty of this new variant. I didn't catch it, and I was hours with a symptomatic person. I know lots of spouses who didn't catch it.

If it was soooo contagious surely everyone would catch it, even after fleeting exposure?

emma yes and that is my point. Everyone that can is mostly working from home. Everyone that can is mostly homeschooling where possible. Everyone that can is having shopping delivered, and staying away from others, and we are STILL seeing huge infection rates in areas that have been locked down like this for months not weeks.

The viral load in the throats of those infected by the new variant is a 1000 times higher than those of the old variant.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/11/new-covid-strain-what-coronavirus-variant-symptoms-where-uk-dangerous/

I think you were very lucky - have you been tested for antibodies? Maybe you are one of the few that are asymptomatic? Have you been tested?Ilook

There is not a country in the world that will have a healthcare system that could withstand the current variant (and possibly ones that are even more infectious).

3/4 countries around the world currently have less than half[many a lot less than half] of our UK deaths per million of population, rate.

Sorry, I need to learn how to highlight, as it looks like I am saying something, when actually I am saying what someone else is saying.

light They are not dealing with the new variant.