Lockdowns, even a stricter one is not going to work

[Icanseegreenshoots]

Unless we shut down every sector except for food, medical care and distribution this lockdown (or even a much stricter one) simply will not work.

Mostly everyone outside of hospitality/gyms is working as normal - I don't disagree with this - as we need an economy to return to. Supermarkets are packed, because people need food. Public transport in cities are rammed because people need to get to and from said work. Some schools are full because the key worker list is so long. The infection rate will continue as before.

The real elephant in the room is that we will have to furlough almost everyone in every sector to beat this new variant, and the government is just not prepared to do it/or can not afford to.

The new variant seems to be beating the odds even in areas that have already had a very hard lockdown for a long time, with no sign of it abating or even levelling off slightly. I don't believe it is the 'rule breakers' that are causing this at all, as I don't think in reality there are that many of them - certainly not enough. The new variant is so infectious that almost any attempt to stop it is futile and pointless, that is the truth of the matter.

Even if they stop all exercise, introduce zero household mixing and close nurseries, we will still continue to see a high infection rate, because even brief contact seems to be infecting people.

I am quite neutral in terms of how I feel about this, because at least we have a solution that will set us free in the coming months, but instead of blaming 'people' for not following the rules, we need to have a much closer look at the new variant, and being more honest about the limitations of this lockdown in the face of such an infectious strain.

Agree with a previous poster who said the definition of madness is doing same things again - lockdowns don't work here because people will not comply. You only have to see some of the mask wearers with then hanging around their neck, families trotting round Sainsbury's on a trip out. I don't know what the solution is but what is currently happening isn't it.

I am definitely not intending this to be another government bashing thread, I think they are getting a great deal of things right. The vaccine reaching 2.4million this lunch time is really great news.

The sinister SM campaign of 'people will die' aimed at young people is totally unnecessary when young people in the main, ARE doing staying at home.

So true that the government need to be on our side; and they need to stay on our side, and not allow the police to take things too far, to start to become too militant.
We are in the eye of the storm, our hospitals are full and are struggling - of course we can't ignore that. The confusion between what is law and what is guidance is getting completely lost. I hope the scientists and government ministers won't completely lose all sense of what is possible in reality by trying to push for even more restrictions. Many/most people are already at the limit of what they can cope with. If you take it too far people will just give up, and decide they can no longer do it.

The government have done a great job at turning their citizens against each other. You can see it on here, everyone seems to see hundreds of people not social distancing or not wearing masks. I live in a very large town and I cant say this has been the case IME.

Op, I largely agree with you. My town was doing super well, even being east of england and surrounded by worse counties our numbers were some of the lowest in the country. We had a newspaper right an article about how our plethora of outdoor spaces and large, ventilated modern offices meant we were the place to be.

Then lockdown 2.0 happened..........

Within weeks of that ending our numbers went from less than 40 per 100,000 to over 1000 per 100,000 and once those numbers start rising to that degree it's like a freight train without breaks.

And I haven't seen anything particularly different. Our schools overall still had very low numbers until the xmas holidays. Everyone i know was still following the rules and wfh where they can.

Now, we're just getting worse and worse and worse. Funny how when we all got locked at home together essentially it all took a turn for the worse.

BUT I would like to point out. I had covid over xmas, mild case, I've had worse colds. At any rate, being east of england and with our numbers it's a high probability it was the new variant. Shared a bed with DH and was still around the kids and none of them got so much as a sniffle.

It also makes me wonder if non compliance is being lined up for the future inquiry that will obviously take place.

The truth is the scientists were utterly amazed last spring that the lockdown worked as well as it did, so which one is it?

We are either have a nation of rule breakers and non compliance, or we are a nation of (mostly) compliant adults that are prepared to sacrifice our own comfort to save others. We can't be both. I happen to think the latter, but also need to keep the lights on.

PROF Chris Whitty is on the BBC news now. He told a teacher that they are not at greater risk. Also priority to opening up schools before other thinks

Things not thinks

They are going to vaccinate teachers as a priority according to the Times this morning.

Estate agents are open round here. Everyone in, no evidence of masks. Lots of offices are telling staff to go in. Lots of non-essential shops open like Curry’s which could just do delivery instead.

I can’t comply with any further tightening of lockdown rules. I can’t live in total isolation and not go outside the house. Nor can millions others and the parks are not where people are picking it up anyway.

@Ineedalargeone

PROF Chris Whitty is on the BBC news now. He told a teacher that they are not at greater risk. Also priority to opening up schools before other thinks

Wtf why? Of course teachers are at greater risk of being exposed to it because they will be mixing with kids from lots of households. Despite this we might need to open schools because it would be worse to leave them shut but this doesn’t mean teachers aren’t at v high risk of infection. It would help if they treated us as having at least one brain cell. Fucking twats.

Lots and lots of people are working out of the house, and not just key workers. Many offices are open and although they may have restrictions and a rota lots are in. When dh goes to work he sees lots of others heading to work too in the city centre offices.

Of the people I know who are currently working out of the home, at least part of the time, include:

Teaching staff
Medics
Dentists
Solicitors
Surveyors
University IT support
Lecturer
Secretaries and office support staff
Home cleaner
Builders and other trades
Bathroom fitters
Shop staff

There's probably more I am personally aware of but that's a start.

At this time of year, people would be starting their new regimes of keeping fit: the gyms and pools have been snatched away, and by stealth, the government is trying to criminalise (or at least discourage) walking outdoors.

I was laughing mirthlessly while watching Countryfile last night. Every single item was a feature about the benefits of the great outdoors on mental health. We were urged to get out there and get walking, and that the many and varied benefits of doing so would "save the NHS billions" (direct quote). Assuming that Countryfile and the BBC know full well that not everyone lives with a handy moor or forest in their immediate locality, we were being encouraged to drive to places for exercise on the very same day that it was being hinted that the police going to crack down on these stupid selfish bastards who drive more than a couple of miles to go for a walk, and woe betide them if they have a flask on them.

British people are a stoic lot, by nature we do tend to keep calm and carry on ( excuse the overused quote) but don't push your bloody luck.

Can someone pass that message on to No 10?

@Abraxan

Lots and lots of people are working out of the house, and not just key workers. Many offices are open and although they may have restrictions and a rota lots are in. When dh goes to work he sees lots of others heading to work too in the city centre offices.

Of the people I know who are currently working out of the home, at least part of the time, include:

Teaching staff
Medics
Dentists
Solicitors
Surveyors
University IT support
Lecturer
Secretaries and office support staff
Home cleaner
Builders and other trades
Bathroom fitters
Shop staff

There's probably more I am personally aware of but that's a start.

You missed off a big one. Factories.

I work in manufacturing. Non essential, I am not a key worker. We currently have 4 people off having tested positive and more isolating with symptoms.

Manufacturing of non essential items is encouraged to continue by the government, we are doing a roaring trade and they can't afford to furlough us as well as all the other industries.

Factory work is huge, because there can be so little social distancing.

So that is why I have concluded we have a real problem with the new variant, one that will not be solved with ever stricter lockdown rules.

They will roll out the vaccine to those that are most likely to die and be seriously ill all the while terrifying the nation into compliance in the next month or so - and then suddenly once those groups are done we will see a total change of messaging.
Something along the lines of - covid is here to stay, it is a non event for the young(ish) and healthy - please go back to work and support the economy. Eat out to help out rolled out en masse.

We will come out blinking into the spring sunshine wondering just where did 'go out and people die' disappear to, and how come that was okay in the first place.
I am genuinely feeling brainwashed already by the last lockdown, when we had a full scale conversation about whether we could safely walk over a stile in the middle of the countryside, and whether we could sit and have a picnic in an empty field lest someone's dog comes near us! Or the cleaning of bloody shopping bags and amazon boxes. I look back and seriously wonder WTH, so goodness knows what we are going to make of this current insanity.

If you are studying psychology surely this must be providing legions of live research for you.

Rather than trying to make people’s lives a misery they need to make a superhuman effort to vaccinate all vulnerable people. A much bigger effort than they are making now. Throw everything at it. Then once vulnerable people are protected, the restrictions need to be lifted even if that means that younger healthy people may still get infected. Nobody can be completely safe from a virus and it’s not right to decimate the economy to try to ensure this.

There are a lot of employers who could easily have staff working from home but choose not to. They should be required to.

Not all key worker children need to be in school. That needs to change so if a parent at home they need to be there. Lots of other parents with important jobs are doing the juggling.

@JustFrustrated

There is a lot of "little world syndrome" occuring here..which makes me wonder if this is effecting how people see the virus

Also this lockdown isn't the same as March. In March it was stay home even of you can't work from home. This time that isn't the other.

Therefore people like me, and my thousands of peers across the country are still at work.

And we can travel over three counties in one day, easily. Mixing with hundreds of people. But we can't work from home.

Out of everyone I know who was furloughed last time, none are this time.

Agree with this.

Last time I was furloughed for 6 weeks between April - May, I've been back in the office since late May and so have many of my colleagues.

I am not an essential worker, I have to commute 90 minutes each way and use the London Underground, my office is very COVID safe, however the Tube isn't and hasn't been at all since all this started. I've been on the platform where commuters are practically shoulder to shoulder and many are not wearing masks.

I just think the guidelines are too wishy washy, work from home of you can just means employers can insist staff come into the office.

It's already working OP. Hate to disappoint you, but rates are starting to decrease now in areas that were in tier 4 over Christmas. Also observed by the ZOE Covid-19 study.

Are they? Thank god for that.

They will roll out the vaccine to those that are most likely to die and be seriously ill all the while terrifying the nation into compliance in the next month or so - and then suddenly once those groups are done we will see a total change of messaging

That’s quite literally been the plan since vaccines became a realistic prospect, why are you presenting it as a prediction with an undertone of conspiracy theorist?

What about lockdowns don’t work? I mean they fuck the economy and they’re really hard going mentally but in terms of reducing infections they absolutely do work. The second one was a waste of time the minute the government bowed to pressure to put an end date on it regardless of any other factors. We missed an opportunity to get case numbers right down and possibly spot and contain the new variant much earlier. I don’t think they’re going to make that mistake twice - at least I hope.

The number of deaths is misleading because it takes on average three to four weeks to die from covid from initial diagnosis. Deaths won’t come down massively for a while yet and as the incubation period for infection is an average of two weeks (can be up to four) we’re not in the time period anyone can say with any kind of credibility that lockdown isn’t working.

You don’t seem to actually have a clue what you’re talking about.

Agreed. And agreed that we should all be furious that these lockdowns, which are ruining lives, are to save the NHS which should have been properly managed and funded all along.

There's a very good article in the British Medical Journal about compliance blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/01/07/pandemic-fatigue-how-adherence-to-covid-19-regulations-has-been-misrepresented-and-why-it-matters/ - basically the summary is that most people are, and where people aren't its more to do with structural issues such as overcrowded housing, no financial support to self-isolate and so on. But, its much easier to blame us all, and get everyone to turn on each other.

@Cornettoninja

They will roll out the vaccine to those that are most likely to die and be seriously ill all the while terrifying the nation into compliance in the next month or so - and then suddenly once those groups are done we will see a total change of messaging

That’s quite literally been the plan since vaccines became a realistic prospect, why are you presenting it as a prediction with an undertone of conspiracy theorist?

What about lockdowns don’t work? I mean they fuck the economy and they’re really hard going mentally but in terms of reducing infections they absolutely do work. The second one was a waste of time the minute the government bowed to pressure to put an end date on it regardless of any other factors. We missed an opportunity to get case numbers right down and possibly spot and contain the new variant much earlier. I don’t think they’re going to make that mistake twice - at least I hope.

The number of deaths is misleading because it takes on average three to four weeks to die from covid from initial diagnosis. Deaths won’t come down massively for a while yet and as the incubation period for infection is an average of two weeks (can be up to four) we’re not in the time period anyone can say with any kind of credibility that lockdown isn’t working.

You don’t seem to actually have a clue what you’re talking about.

In that case, the rising numbers in December were infected during the last lockdown, which doesn’t inspire huge confidence about how effective they are.

In that case, the rising numbers in December were infected during the last lockdown, which doesn’t inspire huge confidence about how effective they are

Nationally numbers were falling quite dramatically in the last week of lockdown. The areas where numbers rose were where the new variant transpired. If we’d continued for it would have been obvious there was something else going on and it could have been contained/dramatically slowed instead of opening up places like London far too much too early.

It seems it takes approximately fourish weeks to start seeing definite effects from restrictions so it stands to reason they need longer to fully reveal how effective they can be. We’re in this for the long haul, it’s a complete waste of everyone’s time to push and pressure for a change of tactic every time people get frustrated results aren’t quick enough. That’s exactly what we’re in the mess we’re in despite the restrictions we’ve had.

There needs to be a plan that we actually stick to if we want things running even vaguely normally.

@FrankUnderwoodsWife

I have just recovered from covid. I caught it from my mothers Carer on Christmas Eve. My personal take is that people are being compliant but that this new viral variant doesn’t present in the same way as the public is told be aware of. I had no temperature, no continuous cough and lost sense of smell 4 days after testing positive. I just thought I was exhausted from a tough year and my mothers terminal illness.

So unless they change the primary symptom list people will still go about their business, particularly within the community, not believing they have covid but are just run down.

I’m in central London and it is very quiet. The only places that are busy are parks and I don’t have an issue with that. People need to get outside for their physical and mental well being!

That’s really interesting, what were your symptoms? I’ve just recovered from an awful 2 weeks of headache / hot flashes / brain fog / tiredness, but none of the main 3 symptoms. It wouldn’t have even occurred to me to get a test as the symptoms wouldn’t have permitted it.