Lockdowns, even a stricter one is not going to work

[Icanseegreenshoots]

Unless we shut down every sector except for food, medical care and distribution this lockdown (or even a much stricter one) simply will not work.

Mostly everyone outside of hospitality/gyms is working as normal - I don't disagree with this - as we need an economy to return to. Supermarkets are packed, because people need food. Public transport in cities are rammed because people need to get to and from said work. Some schools are full because the key worker list is so long. The infection rate will continue as before.

The real elephant in the room is that we will have to furlough almost everyone in every sector to beat this new variant, and the government is just not prepared to do it/or can not afford to.

The new variant seems to be beating the odds even in areas that have already had a very hard lockdown for a long time, with no sign of it abating or even levelling off slightly. I don't believe it is the 'rule breakers' that are causing this at all, as I don't think in reality there are that many of them - certainly not enough. The new variant is so infectious that almost any attempt to stop it is futile and pointless, that is the truth of the matter.

Even if they stop all exercise, introduce zero household mixing and close nurseries, we will still continue to see a high infection rate, because even brief contact seems to be infecting people.

I am quite neutral in terms of how I feel about this, because at least we have a solution that will set us free in the coming months, but instead of blaming 'people' for not following the rules, we need to have a much closer look at the new variant, and being more honest about the limitations of this lockdown in the face of such an infectious strain.

@minipie

I'm not sure why more people aren't angrier about the state of our NHS tbh, chronic underfunding is the Only reason for all the restrictions on our lives.

Couldn’t agree more.

And that a high proportion of infections are occurring in hospital. Locking me in my house won't make a blind bit of difference to the infection control in my hospital

What the government should have been doing is investing in our NHS so it can cope with lots of sick people.

Completely agree with this. I can't understand why people aren't screaming for it.

Ten years of "efficiency savings" is one of the things which has led us to this point. I hope those in government have woken up to this fact, but somehow I doubt it.

@hamstersarse
I read than 1/3 of infections are happening in hospital, and1/3 in care homes.

@Icanseegreenshoots

We can't let our hospitals down by simply saying to them that nothing we do will make a difference to the infections rate, sorry but we tried but our sacrifices seem largely pointless. Even if that ends up being the absolute truth, that will never will be allowed to be the narrative - so the public will be continued to be blamed for non compliance and rebelliousness even if it is untrue (and they know it) and it will continue to cause division and anger when it shouldn't.

Sitting on a park bench is not going to give you covid, but working in a packed and warm factory might.
But as we need the factory to provide us food so we are not going to fine them, but we will fine the easy targets instead, and blame them for the infection and death rate.

The whole situation is becoming so messed up. The police are buying into this idea that there is mass non compliance, even fining two women that were doing something perfectly legal. Walking with a friend is allowed, drinking a warm drink is allowed. So now we see a very sinister development. The scapegoating of the public to cover for the fact that we are not able to control this new variant.

And I agree with every word of this.

Good thread OP.

[quote lightand]@hamstersarse
I read than 1/3 of infections are happening in hospital, and1/3 in care homes.[/quote]
Yes, this information is definitely not being made public knowledge.

In March / April last year it was 29% in care homes for sure - that is known.

I have seen recently that at least 25% of cases are due to hospital infection but tbh it's really difficult to ratify this as they are keeping it under wraps.

What they are not keeping under wraps is how fucking terrible you are if you go out for a walk on a beach

I find it so sad that people will be so vile about activities that are clearly very low risk, e.g. walking on a windy beach, yet say not one word about how our care homes are still not infection free and our hospital infection control isn't working.

I guess it's easy to blame Joan who sat on a bench for 10 minutes looking at the view rather than a systematic failure of infection control in care homes and hospitals. Makes everyone feel better to have exalted their frustration on Joan.

@TinyTear

but looking at the Zoe app the numbers are going down in London

I am SE London and numbers have seriously spiked since before Christmas and are continuing to do so....

really interesting, I agree with everything you are saying OP.
I am just so ground down by it all I don't have the energy to put it into words.

To think that people said that Jeremy Corbyn wanting free broadband for everyone was mad and there wasn't a ' magic money tree' but now there is oodles of cash for trace and trace and Boris's friends and the wrong ppe etc etc etc.
Free broadband would be so welcome now in many homes trying to home school.
They can try a stricter lockdown , but many people wont comply I'm afraid.
I feel it will just limp on now till half term or maybe a curfew brought in.

I agree OP, but also want to mention that countries with better health care systems such as Germany cannot cope with numbers either

Am really angry at the police having the power to fine and arrest people for things that are in breach of the “spirit of lockdown”, so you do not even have to be breaking the actual law to be fined and arrested

It means that law and rule abiding citizens such as myself now need to fear the police in case they don’t like what I’m doing (eg walking with my husband whilst we clutch a cup of tea, or something like that).

Am also absolutely dreading the punishment we’ll be given for “bad behaviour” (fuck your Matt Hancock, we are sticking to all the rules, fuck off with your blaming of ordinary people) , such as only being allowed out of the house ONCE A WEEK .

I had a panic attack about that this morning (not stating this for effect, I literally had one ), It’s taken me 10 years to get over my panic attacks following PTSD and I fear I am not going to be able to cope with this house arrest when (if) they bring it in )

I had a panic attack about that this morning (not stating this for effect, I literally had one sad), It’s taken me 10 years to get over my panic attacks following PTSD and I fear I am not going to be able to cope with this house arrest when (if) they bring it in sad)

I really sympathise, but try and remain calm. They will not bring this in, and could not police it so do not worry. the Government/media is despicable with their blame game and finger pointing at the public.

These new rules being proposed are utter madness. People going for a walk and drinking a coffee at the same time are not spreading the virus. It's running rampant through hospitals and care homes though, and increasing restrictions on me doesn't change that. I'm trying hard not to fall into conspiracy theories but cutting off the mental health benefits of exercising with someone feels very sinister indeed given it'll make naff all difference to infection rate.

@FrankUnderwoodsWife

I work in finance and no one is allowed into the office, I don’t know anyone who is in work that can work from home 🤷🏻‍♀️

Unfortunately I know a fair few people in office based jobs who WFH in the spring lockdown but are now being told to go in. I'm WFH but only because we have the culmination of a three year project going live next week and I was considered a key risk to this should I become ill. I fully expect to be told to come back into the office after this.

@emmathedilemma

I don't agree that everyone outside those industries is working as normal. Everyone I know with an office based job is working from home and most have been since March 2020.

Again not in my experience Accountant Conveyancer Marketing in the food industry

Plus supply chain, buying, all in the food industry

@Icanseegreenshoots

emma yes and that is my point. Everyone that can is mostly working from home. Everyone that can is mostly homeschooling where possible. Everyone that can is having shopping delivered, and staying away from others, and we are STILL seeing huge infection rates in areas that have been locked down like this for months not weeks.

Cannot get shopping delivered or click and collect I do the supermarket shopping weekly for my household of 5, plus my 86 year old Aunt plus my In-Laws. I don't go anywhere else but the supermarket. They are not like they were back in the spring - it is a free for all and IF I catch Covid it will be from there! I also need to take a family member as I cannot do 3 households shopping on my own ( unless I go twice)

the government is just not prepared to do it/or can not afford to
I agree, they are just pretending to do something to keep us quiet, ultimately they will save the economy so thier rich friends can carry on being rich.... it doesn't matter if poor people die

there is a lag, we will see the effects of lock down in a few weeks.

The GVT need to get tough with businesses insisting on employees going into the office when they can WFH.
A live on a commuter rat run and they reduction in rush hour traffic is minimal. It was so quiet last spring

The problem is there a huge hidden population doing exactly what they want - they are hard to find and track down, its much easier to target old people on benches

We do have millions of vaccines ordered, these will be rolled out as fast as possible, we are all hoping to return to a freer way of life soon, hopefully.

For many people the only place where they mix with lots of people is the supermarket- where restrictions have fallen away completely in most cases. No limit on numbers, no social distancing, unlike in March.

These new rules being proposed are utter madness
Yes they are just rearranging the deckchairs while the Titanic is sinking, it's just to make us think that they are doing something, the reality is they are all assured of a place in the lifeboat so they don't care

Yes, this information is definitely not being made public knowledge

It is being made public knowledge. The figures are all on the ONS website, and have been for a long time. There is a difference between making something public knowledge, and people knowing it. Do you know how many people die of sepsis in the UK every year? How many die of coronary heart disease? In road traffic accidents? Very few people know these or many other things. But it is certainly easy to create public hysteria by choosing the information that you publically focus on.

Every sector except those three.

What about refuse collection? Sewerage / water supply employees? Plumbers, electricians, builders for emergency repairs? Mechanics for MOT and essential repairs to cars? Employees in the legal system (defendants currently wait up to FOUR YEARS for a trial)? Prison officers? Police officers? Public transport workers? Nuclear power plant employees? Postal workers?

I think maybe they aren't talking about hospital transmission because there is an ongoing problem with people staying away from medical care who really, really need it.

You've only got to read some of the posts on here about business conferences, people still being in work unnecessarily and people having mobile hairdressers in to see how this can spread in homes and workplaces.

However, if most cases are happening in hospital and care homes what is the solution?

I'm also expecting to see bubbles burst in schools and cases rise there. My son's secondary was high risk before lockdown - six self isolations and Covid for him.