Lockdowns, even a stricter one is not going to work

[Icanseegreenshoots]

Unless we shut down every sector except for food, medical care and distribution this lockdown (or even a much stricter one) simply will not work.

Mostly everyone outside of hospitality/gyms is working as normal - I don't disagree with this - as we need an economy to return to. Supermarkets are packed, because people need food. Public transport in cities are rammed because people need to get to and from said work. Some schools are full because the key worker list is so long. The infection rate will continue as before.

The real elephant in the room is that we will have to furlough almost everyone in every sector to beat this new variant, and the government is just not prepared to do it/or can not afford to.

The new variant seems to be beating the odds even in areas that have already had a very hard lockdown for a long time, with no sign of it abating or even levelling off slightly. I don't believe it is the 'rule breakers' that are causing this at all, as I don't think in reality there are that many of them - certainly not enough. The new variant is so infectious that almost any attempt to stop it is futile and pointless, that is the truth of the matter.

Even if they stop all exercise, introduce zero household mixing and close nurseries, we will still continue to see a high infection rate, because even brief contact seems to be infecting people.

I am quite neutral in terms of how I feel about this, because at least we have a solution that will set us free in the coming months, but instead of blaming 'people' for not following the rules, we need to have a much closer look at the new variant, and being more honest about the limitations of this lockdown in the face of such an infectious strain.

Nothing would make me happier than seeing the infection rate plummet, however Mondays are notoriously low, and Tuesdays always seem to correct the difference lazy
Given much of England has been in tier 4 for months I don't find it especially comforting that we are averaging 60,000 infections per day - and that is just the people being tested.

cornetto Genuine question, Kent has been locked down since early autumn, and the cases just rise and rise, so in what way do you think we are not qualified to say it certainly isn't working in Kent and SE? In what way can we see the new variant going down meaningfully anywhere?

My point is not that the cases won't go down, of course they will to some degree, but they are never ever going to meet the targets the scientists have set - not in a million years, because the new strain of virus is too infectious, and too many people have to work outside home/use hospitals/care homes/supermarkets and schools to keep the country running/people alive.

We had a rate of lower than 16 per 100,000 in most places and as low as 0.5 for much of the summer, the chances of us getting anywhere near that in the foreseeable is looking unlikely. Some areas are well over 1000.

So do I think we can get the numbers down drastically with a lockdown? No I don't, at all, and moreover nor do SAGE which is why they are already talking about plateaus rather than real time decreases.

frank I would absolutely agree with that, my SIL and our close friends all have had the new variant of covid in the last six weeks. All had headaches, felt sick, sore throat and fatigue and dizziness. One had a cough, not consistent just the odd cough at the end, two weeks later. The only way they found out was when their dd's friend tested positive, and then they were tested. Not one single symptom on the official list. They all thought they have a different winter virus.

I am not sure the official NHS list is fit for purpose now, as many symptoms are not on the list at all. We have known since January of last year in China that stomach problems can also be a sign of covid but it is not on the list despite being known for a very long time.

cornetto Genuine question, Kent has been locked down since early autumn, and the cases just rise and rise, so in what way do you think we are not qualified to say it certainly isn't working in Kent and SE? In what way can we see the new variant going down meaningfully anywhere

In what way are you qualified to make that statement then?

Kent hasn’t been locked down since autumn, it’s been in varying levels of restrictions but not an actual lockdown. That’s a blatant exaggeration.

It’s too early to say what this lockdown, with reduced school attendances, will achieve. I’m happy to come back in six weeks and go through the numbers but I’m fairly confident lockdown will have an effect. I wouldn’t be happy to be proved wrong but I’d accept it.

Ultimately though we only have two options when the case numbers have spiralled beyond our healthcare capacity, stop people getting near each other i.e lockdown, mass vaccinations or a combination of both. Both take time to have an impact due to factors that we have no control over .

@FrankUnderwoodsWife

I work in finance and no one is allowed into the office, I don’t know anyone who is in work that can work from home 🤷🏻‍♀️

I know plenty, legal secretaries, office workers who have "covid Safe" offices. I work in an office but am only allowed the odd day at home.

Waxonwaxoff - not sure I know anyone who works in a factory in recent years. But yes, can imagine a lot of those workers are not working from home.

From my list there are definitely some who could work from home but it's a mix of their employers prefer them in the office and the employees prefer to work in the office then at home.
It's the people in that category that need restrictions to stop it happening.

@Lemons1571
I had all of the symptoms you have described. Just generally felt unwell but non specific. I had a stomach upset, felt my sinuses were blocked, had a bit of a headache, feeling of pins and needles in my arms and legs occasionally, but I mainly felt tired.
I think my sister had the same symptoms as me in early December, but because she couldn’t get tested for covid as she didn’t meet the criteria, didn’t!

@Icanseegreenshoots
I am not sure the official NHS list is fit for purpose now, as many symptoms are not on the list at all. We have known since January of last year in China that stomach problems can also be a sign of covid but it is not on the list despite being known for a very long time.

I see this as the biggest issue currently with the current mutation. It isn’t presenting like the original strain.

People are fatigued and it’s winter, so feeling run down seems pretty normal, but many may be unaware they have actually contracted covid. It’s also an issue because you can’t get tested unless you have one of the 3 “main” symptoms, so people aren’t getting tested, unless they go for an asymptotic lateral flow test.

Ideally NHS England updates the testing criteria and broaden the list of potential symptoms.

This is from the Covid Zoe App, on symptoms

cornetto Do you actually live in Kent? Schools have been closed for months, no shops/restaurants/bars have been open since early October - everything has been closed for months and months. So yes it IS a lockdown in every way and has been the case for a very long time!

And no the infection rate has not come down at all.

That is why everyone is so alarmed about the new variant. You would expect to see some movement in the numbers after six weeks, and yet they continued to go in a straight line upwards.

You sound like you think you know it all, but in fact you are not even aware of the restrictions in the most highly infected areas. For all intents and purposes, some areas never came out of a lockdown.

In six weeks from now we will see a drop in infection rate, but not the kind of drop you would expect from a very strict and draconian lockdown. So yes lets come back to discuss. I will expect an apology.

So much misinformation on here
Of course it is passed on in shops as that was what was mainly closed in nov/dec. The numbers did drop.
If schools are 0.4 then that doesnt leave a lot for the other 7/8 of the population to do. And they were kept open with increasing infection.
Lockdown slows it till a peak is reached. Which will probably be 2w after new year because peoppemixed anyway. We are slowing it down then the r will drop and casss.
However it may rise again as schools went back but only primary about 50% which might only be say 1/8th so not 0.4 rather 0.05.

People havent been complying lots had xmas gathering and family staying when they shouldnt. The fact cases rose so dramatically 29th dec says that even in t4 people mixed on 25th.
And the new variant doesnt need new symtoms as the old one had many people with non 3 main symtoms but with d&v or sore throat or headache or nothing it's just uk ignores this unlike other countries.
Having school completely shut till at minjmum 14th would have helped a lot.
At 1/30 infected in places of course coffee shops where you go in are an issue especially any with long inside queues.

Kent was in tier 2 prior to the November lockdown so hasn’t been in lockdown since early autumn?

Schools have been closed for months

Is that true?

Youve jusr been unlucky the outbreak happened on the run up to xmas. It supercharged it. The non essential shops opened everywhere i think in dec.
But cases were rising.
There will be factors in areas that affect how effective measures are
Kent assumptions

• didnt get hit much in first wave or at least much until now since sept
• so hospital staff little immunity and other key workers
• well known grammar area so assume more than usual travel for secondary and maybe primary, assume public transport or school buses
• competition for school places and investing in education may mean fewer people adhere to SI when ill (kids) so they can get in and harder work in secondary.
• proximity to london where cases also growing
• assume lots of haulage coming in due to xmas.

Many areas in the north had high rates for many weeks, with lots of schools severely affected.
Perhaps there was also a factory /office etc which has happened elsewhere.

My cousin lives in the Medway Towns and their school was closed in November and did not reopen. Initially it was due to so much infection, and then later the headteacher deemed it unsafe, and did not have the staff to reopen the school safely due to such high covid levels. It was the case with many schools in Kent.

When the second lockdown happened back in October/November, it made no difference to Kent and we were then placed in Tier 4 even AFTER that lockdown Crumpety The lockdown made zero difference.

My point is that we may see some drop in numbers, but nothing like the decrease we saw in March. Not because people are bored with following the rules as some would say, causing anger and division, but because the new variant is so infectious.

The flip side of the virus being more infectious, is that surely it should run through the population quicker? Given that under lockdown conditions, only a subset of the population are heavily exposed to others (through their keyworker jobs) then at some point most of those will have been exposed, and transmission will naturally slow. If one in 30 people in London have it currently, it is likely that large numbers also had it in the weeks leading up to that study. There's only so many people in London who do have contact with others (I totally agree with the OP that people walking or sitting on benches is not the issue! And everyone I know in a professional office based role is working from home), so sooner or later the lockdown will appear to be effective.

@Affor

Mostly everyone outside of hospitality/gyms is working as normal

I don't think this is true? I don't know anyone who has left the house to work (except a doctor) in almost a year now.

Supermarket workers Take away food workers

Then connected to these :

Refrigeration engineers that are contracted to fix supermarket equipment
Maintenance engineers for all food premises
Alarm engineers for all food & take away premises
Delivery drivers for all food supermarkets and small food take away retail
HGV lorry drivers
Warehouse / distribution staff to load the lorries to take stock to supermarkets ( some supermarket distribution warehouses have upwards of 1000 staff )
Plumbers / electricians needed to repair equipment in these premises

Vault / cash collection / securicor workers
The list of people still working is endless

It’s not just “ supermarket workers “ that you see sitting on a till or filling a shelf. Or the single person giving you a Subway sandwich to take away. There a full chain of contractors connected to these workplaces.

The amount of people needed to go out to work just to keep food premises open is HUGE.

I can’t believe some people on here don’t know anyone who has left the house to work in a year.

I’m on the flip side where EVERYONE I know is still working out of the home

It must be great to be sitting in a safe ivory tower.

@MyOwnPrivatePaddlingPool there was indoor mixing in Scotland over Christmas. 3 families I do believe

Schools haven't even been closed for a month in Kent. Most closed on 18th December and we are now starting to see a big reduction in numbers locally. This shows that closing schools works. Kids were catching it in schools and then a week or two later giving it to parents and family members, and then there is also community spread eg in supermarkets, which all explains increasing numbers over the Christmas holidays. There is always a lag due to the incubation period, onset of symptoms, testing and getting results.

In November in the lockdown in Kent cases rose massively. This was due to two things: the new variant and mass transmission in schools.

The fact that cases are starting to come down in Kent shows that closing schools works.

arial Yes that would be a good thing that herd immunity is reached with the infected meeting the vaccinated in the middle! One can only hope that will happen sooner rather than later before the hospitals buckle under the pressure.

cats I am not going to argue with you about what schools were closed and which ones were open in the swale area, suffice to say many have been closed for more than a month already! In some cases for six weeks. We are yet to see an incredible drop in numbers. It is only levelling off. In the meantime our ICU is full, we are running out of oxygen and people have a nine hour wait for an ambulance.

In my area of Kent they didn't close until 18th. I have no idea about Swale. We had 2000 cases locally last week. This week its 1200. I monitor it on the Zoe app.

So we’ve moved from “schools were closed for months” to some schools you know about have been closed for 4-6 weeks?

Shall we chip away at the 9 hours for ambulances now?

I don’t dispute that things are bad but apocalyptic hyperbole is irresponsible.

cats I think you were very lucky to make it to the end of the winter term with such a high infection rate.

hedda you are boring me a little now, actually it was 10 hours not 9, but in our area it was a mere 9 hour wait and has been the case since mid December - I will attach a BBC link, and perhaps you can add something useful next time you post.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-55580867

@Icanseegreenshoots
I am not sure the official NHS list is fit for purpose now, as many symptoms are not on the list at all. We have known since January of last year in China that stomach problems can also be a sign of covid but it is not on the list despite being known for a very long time

I would agree. Even back in March I didnt have two of the top three symptoms, and only 3 out of the remaining 11 or how many it was.

@Icanseegreenshoots Schools have not been closed "for months" in Kent at all - stop making things up