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Original poster

Vaccine calculator - your place in the queue

188 replies

PilatesPeach · 04/01/2021 12:22

I am probably missing something very obvious (so be nice) - why have places suddenly jumped back 6 months or so? Am assuming to do with the one dose then 2nd 12 weeks later but was down for June/July now December or Jan 2022. Just curious really. I am only in group 9 so not at high risk but guess other higher categories have been pushed back too. Thought it would have got quicker with Oxford jab rolling out. Just asking so someone more with it can satisfy my curiosity thank you

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 04/01/2021 13:19

Well the tool is at least good for expectation management.

Chimpanme · 04/01/2021 13:20

It's because unpaid carers are now being given priority and those who receive carer's allowance in the calculator algorithm

Chimpanme · 04/01/2021 13:21

They've changed the algorithm.

Unpaid carers are now being given priority as well as those who receive carers allowance.

silverspring · 04/01/2021 13:22

Who is running that calculator and why are you giving it your approx birthday/medical info?

LEELULUMPKIN · 04/01/2021 13:23

Well when I checked yesterday it said I would likely get my second dose by the end of 2022.

However I have just been on it again and there is now a category for unpaid carers which I am pretty certain wasn't there before.

It's now showing that I am expected to get it between mid june - end of Sept 2021.

It's also great news that carers, children and adults with Autism are now on the priority list, which is why I assume I have jumped forward over a year!

Original poster
PilatesPeach · 04/01/2021 13:25

great news!

OP posts:
EarlGreywithLemon · 04/01/2021 13:25

It makes it very clear as well that it refers to when you would have had both doses of the vaccine.

NotGenerationAlpha · 04/01/2021 13:25

This calculator isn't stupid. If you read the results, it'll tell you it's based on how many people are in groups of higher priority, your own priority group and also number of vaccinations per week. This is very clear how it's done. For example.

Based on your profile, there are between 28,049,905 and 38,844,493 people in front of you in the queue for a COVID vaccine across the UK.

Given a vaccination rate of 1,000,000 a week and an uptake of 70.6%, you should expect to receive your two doses of vaccine and be fully protected by between 01/02/2022 and 02/07/2022.

This is how we do project planning at work. At any point, you know how much work has been completed, priority of remaining tasks and size of them (priority groups), and the velocity of your team. This gives you an estimate of of when each task is projected to be completed.

treedragon · 04/01/2021 13:26

Hi,

Where are the details about Adults with Autism on this and which group are they in?

EarlGreywithLemon · 04/01/2021 13:26

It’s also out of date; the advice has changed and pregnant and breastfeeding women can now have the vaccine.

Chimpanme · 04/01/2021 13:27

What happens in families where siblings share care of an elderly person?

They then have to chose who gets the main carer's vaccination? This is bloody stupid.

FourTeaFallOut · 04/01/2021 13:28

It's just a calculator based on parameters that have nothing to do with real life beyond your place in the queue.

It's like those weight calculators that tell you you'll be eight stone in five weeks if you eat 10 calories a day, not knowing you'll be hammering justeat in a fortnight.

CointreauVersial · 04/01/2021 13:28

It's a bit of a blunt instrument, though. And takes no account of where you live - certain areas are much further ahead than others.

inquietant · 04/01/2021 13:29

@treedragon

It's all a bit stupid that calculator because it almost insinuates there is one vaccine centre with one person and we all go on a pilgrimage to it.

In reality while I am being jabbed so is someone else in the country - indeep likely more than one other!

It really doesn't imply that, it is just intended to give a rough estimate.
SoupDragon · 04/01/2021 13:30

@CuriousaboutSamphire

Well, it's not connected to the vaccine roll out at all, so I doubt it has any degree of accuracy!
I agree. I cant help thinking that it's a load of nonsense.
RedToothBrush · 04/01/2021 13:31

@treedragon

It's all a bit stupid that calculator because it almost insinuates there is one vaccine centre with one person and we all go on a pilgrimage to it.

In reality while I am being jabbed so is someone else in the country - indeep likely more than one other!

Its not stupid. Its basing predictions on how much the programme has been rolled out.

Johnson is busy saying half the population will be vaccinate by Easter with 2million vaccinations a week, whilst the NHS are distancing themselves from that saying it takes time to roll out and not committing to 2 million per week and explicility saying the government should be managing expectations...

I'm in the second half of the vaccination programme. Realistically it'll be the Autumn at best for me...

...and we better hope that the South African variant isn't as bad as is being feared...

emmathedilemma · 04/01/2021 13:33

Mine was June-sept 2021 and now it's Feb-July 2022. Although the rate lockdown is going I could probably eat myself into morbid obesity and bump myself up the list to march - may 2021!

NeverDropYourMoonCup · 04/01/2021 13:36

@Chimpanme

They've changed the algorithm.

Unpaid carers are now being given priority as well as those who receive carers allowance.

Which is good - except for the fact that it puts DP ahead of me, despite his being younger and not CV. How would anybody be able to tell if somebody is an unpaid carer, though?
Chimpanme · 04/01/2021 13:37

Can anyone tell me how Group 6 relates to the timing? I am CEV so group 4, but i cannot figure out how Group 6 (high risk, previously on flu vaccine list in prior years due to medical conditions) timing is?

Hardbackwriter · 04/01/2021 13:39

I think they've changed the default setting from 1m per week to 2m per week, which is why it's changed the date to considerably later for most people. If you think it's over-pessimistic you can change it back to 2m in the 'advanced mode' it offers.

Chimpanme · 04/01/2021 13:39

@NeverDropYourMoonCup - yep. it means my asthmatic mum now gets bumped down the list even though she does 1/3 caring duties for my grandparents as there's three of them and only one can claim the main carer.

SmudgeButt · 04/01/2021 13:40

[quote HeronLanyon]www.omnicalculator.com/health/vaccine-queue-uk[/quote]
Well according to this calculator I won't get a jab until sometime in the summer. and my 94 yo MiL won't get hers until May (when she turns 95).

I get the impression from the site it's just a toy for us all to dither at with no actual link to what's happening within the NHS.

TantieTowie · 04/01/2021 13:40

Have we moved on from under 50s with no underlying medical conditions not needing to be vaccinated at all? Didn't they say that at some point?

Hardbackwriter · 04/01/2021 13:41

It is also literally just a calculator - it takes the number of people estimated to be ahead of you, which is a fixed number based on the current priority list, and divides it by the number of vaccinations that are currently expected to be done each week. It's just x/y, it isn't going to be able to do anything clever or actually predict the future...

KimchiLaLa · 04/01/2021 13:43

@EarlGreywithLemon

It’s also out of date; the advice has changed and pregnant and breastfeeding women can now have the vaccine.
Really? Does the NHS site say this?! I looked last night and advice was same