Daily stats, numbers, data thread 02 Jan

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots [[imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@CommanderBurnham

Thank you *@PatriciaHolm*. I will watch and wait.

I fear the new strain will muddy the numbers.

Also, my theory is that hospitals are in further trouble because more people are surviving due to better understanding and treatments (dexamethasone, etc). These poor people are fighting longer battles in hospital but ultimately surviving, putting more pressures on ICUs.

yes! average stay 12 not 5 days (I've read)

There was a good post on the test positivity rate for 29th too yesterday which helped through light on the situation. As of yesterday it was about 21% for 29th - against a typical range for Dec of 4%-13%

[quote TheDinosaurTrain]@MarshaBradyo have you seen the press release from the RCPCH?

www.rcpch.ac.uk/news-events/news/rcpch-responds-media-reports-increased-admissions-children-young-people-covid-19[/quote]
Thanks Dinosaur yes that was helpful

To anyone: A very unknowing post here - but would hospitalisation by occupation even be known?
Do people fill out forms with this

Yes I followed that discussion but didn't feel it was definitive - could those factors really cause such a huge spike?

The positivity rate for England - latest date available is the 7 days to 29th Dec, by specimen date. (Is this because they try to base it on the last day with reasonably complete figures? ) Anyway it's 17%.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing?areaType=nation&areaName=England

Cross posted again, this time with little owl! The 17% positivity rate is for England, so maybe that accounts for the difference.

Jsut going back through the data - it does look like perhaps Kent and Essex have topped out and are turning a corner.

If you sort by county the table on www.covidmessenger.com and scan down through the counties, it is very apparent - you can see quite a few councils in the worst hit counties (Kent. Essex etc) are now green.

Obvious caveat being that there are some data anomalies over the holiday period but it still looks promising.

@ceeveebee

I haven’t checked whether the numbers correspond to your spreadsheet *@TheSunIsStillShining* but the dashboard has 7 day rolling positivity rates for England and England regions/LAs as attached.

roughly, yes

I hope they are going down consistently @littleowl1, hopefully we'll see in the next few days.

Very worried about my area (tier 3) which has doubled in a week. Last week getting around 30-50 cases a day, now 150-180. Very stark.

@littleowl1 I look out for your daily link. Just popping up to say I am open mouthed at the rates in my area. They have so quickly increased we were ranked in the 300's a few days ago and now mid 200 and I swear our daily rate today is double that of yesterday. We need to go up a tier so it sinks in we are no longer a safe area.

I saw a good kings college graph that grouped the symptoms into 6 groups and showed the likelihood of hospital admissions based on severity of symptoms www.kcl.ac.uk/news/six-distinct-types-of-covid-19-identified
It would be interesting to see how this changes with the new strain, if at all.

Anecdotally the cases I know locally seem to indicate a longer incubation period for this one.

Are we all rather overthinking the 29th?

Given the trajectory of the seven day moving average leading into Christmas, suppressed volumes from the simple fact of it being Christmas there was always going to be a catch up. With the England fig for 29th spec date pretty much being what we'd expect if that seven day average continued on the same trajectory.

The graph shows the daily case numbers since end Nov to date (columns), with the moving average being the line. Its trajectory is disrupted by Christmas - an artificial disruption as far as the virus is concerned. The dotted line continues as if Christmas did not happen, requiring the requisite catch up in cases that the 29th has brought.

DUMB QUESTION ALERT

The postcode area i live in also has the hospital in it so if someone were tested in hospital what "address" would a postive result appear in?

Home address @InterfectoremVulpes

@JanuaryChill

Home address *@InterfectoremVulpes*

Thanks, thats what I thought but I had a moment of doubt

Pressed post too soon...

What about care homes and hospices - I assume that would be classed as their home?

Care homes would be someone's main address usually (unless they're just staying there for restbite care or convelecence) Hospices would not be someone's main address normally as people are often there for a short period only, and have another home - just like hospitals

And during the first wave you could indeed see clusters of cases in areas where care homes are. (It's not so visible in the second wave because of mass testing - in the first wave care home residents with symptoms had access to testing when other people didn't)

Just joining this thread as great to see a factual chat rather than a hysterically polarised one.

@littleowl1

It's really interesting to see the figures in Kent and Essex (we have family in both Brentwood and Tunbridge Wells where things have been really bad for quite a while).

Obviously it remains to be seen whether it's a trend or a blip but I'm assuming for now that it's a trend as it seems fairly pronounced.

That said, given that the November Lockdown and Tier 4 are pretty much the same (are there actually any differences at all between the two?) why would the numbers have started dropping now? What has changed? I wouldn't have thought the school holidays would have had time to impact figures significantly yet? And the November Lockdown didn't reduce figures at the time?

I suppose it could be voluntary changes to behaviour due to an awareness of very high numbers locally but it still seems a bit odd? I'm just hypothesising whether the drop is due to a particular set of restrictions (or restriction) or whether it's essentially the natural progression of the virus through the population (ie a level of herd immunity/most likely to be infected now already infected and so immune).

Sunshinegirl- the schools have been off for two weeks, that should have had an impact on transmission rates

Sorry, pressed go too soon. Schools have been off for everyone for 2 weeks and for lots of Kent / London many were isolating before the holidays

are there actually any differences at all between the two?

Churches, outdoor multi-person child sport, shielding instruction.

I think it's natural progression, other than shielders, I'm not sure there's much evidence for behavioural change.

Thanks firefliess

@TheDinosaurTrain

Is 11 days enough to see the impact of schools closing though? I'd have thought we'd start seeing that in a few weeks? Be interesting to see if the drops in those areas have been particularly significant in school aged children.

The differences between lockdown and tier 4 don't seem hugely significant to me in terms of being drivers of infection.