Daily stats, numbers, data thread 02 Jan

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots [[imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Early release of data was predicted on Twitter yesterday. can't find it now but it is all going according to the schedule....

Lurker popping up to ask if anyone knows why there is no data for dates after the 30th?

Worrying with 29th and 30th being so high and no indication of what's happening in the 4 days after. I thought we'd at least have some for the 31st and 1st?

Thank you for these threads, they are so informative.

Numbers v strange for today - do we think there's a backlog building up again? My town has very sparse numbers fir the last 2 days but the testing site is as busy as ever.

Was meaning to ask, isn't the link to daily stats page now missing from the OP?

I've been sent an email via the school saying kids under 12 are seven times more likely to transmit the new variant than adults. Does anyone have any idea what they might be basing this on?

I don't trust their ability to accurately interpret data, frankly, so my first assumption is that someone has misunderstood something.

@Motorina

I've been sent an email via the school saying kids under 12 are seven times more likely to transmit the new variant than adults. Does anyone have any idea what they might be basing this on?

I don't trust their ability to accurately interpret data, frankly, so my first assumption is that someone has misunderstood something.

Could be this? mobile.twitter.com/IrfanDhalla/status/1345695249344180225

www.gov.uk/government/publications/tfc-children-and-transmission-update-paper-17-december-2020

Thank you so much

I think in the case that we have now; the local data (by both Msoa and council) is misleadingly smaller than the real picture.

The interactive map and ‘cases per 100k’ still only go up to the 29th, as 30th and 31st are incomplete. However, incomplete as they may be, by using data up to 31st; for my local council it’s jumped from 325 per 100k to 383k. And at msoa level we don’t have the data.

Wow if that's the case am impressed with your school/LA!

And there's the bank holiday then weekend to factor in too. Bad timing.

If there's a large spike of cases for 29th could that be down to people testing in advance of NYE?

If hospitalization figures are correct for England, than the 29th has some hope built into it:
Even though there were 71k cases the hosp. numbers didn't shoot up. They went up a bit, but not proportional to the 71k.

there could be several reasons

1. data incomplete
2. more mild cases
3. new strain is actually less severe and "just" more transmissible....

Just wondering though as I think before mid-jan we won't see proper datasets on deaths/hosp. numbers.

Although new strain doesn't seem to cause worse symptoms, it's a fact that more cases will continue to lead to more hospitalisations, isn't it?

Did someone check if the hosp. rates are staying the same with the new strain? I'm lazy.

I think you wouldn't really expect to see the impact of the high case rate on 29/30 December on hospital admissions yet @TheSun. It's usually a week or so later. Have to hope that those days are a spike associated with Christmas, but even if they are we'd expect another day or two of high rates. Hospital admissions have been rising quite steeply in England, 2,800+ for the last two days reported (29th and 30th) compared with around 2,000 a day just a week ago. So 40% up in a week.

Hospitalisations take about a week to 10 days to happen, generally, post symptoms. So cases, then hospitalisations, then deaths. As JVT called it a whole ago, they’re baked in...

Sorry, cross post there with firefliess

Thank you both, felt like I was missing something.
The funny thing is that these have been discussed, I read them, sometimes contributed and yet find myself asking novice questions. General apologies for being an a... sometimes

I've updated the table of cases in councils on the www.covidmessenger.com homepage for anyone interested.

Also thought i would post an update to follow on from yesterdays discussion - here are the total positive cases in councils in England for each day since Dec 21st. Looks like that dip over 24/25/26 is also spilling into increases on Dec 30th

21-Dec : 42,115
22-Dec : 40,386
23-Dec : 37,244
24-Dec : 28,387
25-Dec : 12,579
26-Dec : 36,373
27-Dec : 41,982
28-Dec : 39,411
29-Dec : 70,645
30-Dec : 55,320*
31-Dec : 33,093*
01-Jan : 14,284*

*incomplete - significantly more +ve tests will be recorded for these dates.

Based on past data/lags we would expect cases prior to Dec 30th to be fairly stable with at least 95% of cases reported, and quite possibly as high as 99%. But its been on odd week or so with public holidays so greater delays than usual are possible.

Any ideas about 29th @littleowl1 ?

Thank you @PatriciaHolm. I will watch and wait.

I fear the new strain will muddy the numbers.

Also, my theory is that hospitals are in further trouble because more people are surviving due to better understanding and treatments (dexamethasone, etc). These poor people are fighting longer battles in hospital but ultimately surviving, putting more pressures on ICUs.

"If hospitalisation figures are correct for England, than the 29th has some hope built into it:
Even though there were 71k cases the hosp. numbers didn't shoot up. They went up a bit, but not proportional to the 71k."

Do hospitalisation rates tend to lag behind positive Pillar 2 tests - 5 days? 10 days?

I haven’t checked whether the numbers correspond to your spreadsheet @TheSunIsStillShining but the dashboard has 7 day rolling positivity rates for England and England regions/LAs as attached.

Sorry, cross-posted with lots of people!

@JanuaryChill

Yes we had a big chat on here about the 29th yesterday. The feeling is that many people who were developing symptoms 24/25/26/27 held off getting tested/were more reluctant to get tested which resulted in a bit of a "correction" of people turning up to be tested thereafter.