Daily stats, numbers, data thread 02 Jan

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots [[imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

[quote Sunshinegirl82]@littleowl1

It's really interesting to see the figures in Kent and Essex (we have family in both Brentwood and Tunbridge Wells where things have been really bad for quite a while).

Obviously it remains to be seen whether it's a trend or a blip but I'm assuming for now that it's a trend as it seems fairly pronounced.

That said, given that the November Lockdown and Tier 4 are pretty much the same (are there actually any differences at all between the two?) why would the numbers have started dropping now? What has changed? I wouldn't have thought the school holidays would have had time to impact figures significantly yet? And the November Lockdown didn't reduce figures at the time?

I suppose it could be voluntary changes to behaviour due to an awareness of very high numbers locally but it still seems a bit odd? I'm just hypothesising whether the drop is due to a particular set of restrictions (or restriction) or whether it's essentially the natural progression of the virus through the population (ie a level of herd immunity/most likely to be infected now already infected and so immune).[/quote]
I'm in Kent and initially we came out of November lockdown in tier 3 which meant shops open and other things allowed and it was pretty packed . We didn't go into tier 4 with non essential retail etc closing till the weekend before Christmas and we had so much growth during that period. Hoping we are now slowly seeing the downward trend due to restrictions ! Well crossing my fingers massively that's the case .

@LJC1234 I’m in herts and we’re the same but cases still on the rise. I also, without an ounce of scientific knowledge, think that it’s a virus that seems to reck havoc, sometimes without logic and then declines. France saw 80,000 cases in a day not long ago didn’t they? I know they went into quite an aggressive lockdown but think it’s looking better now

Right people, thoughts on this??

Just seen this from John burn-Murdoch on Twitter.
It’s pretty terrifying.

NEW: Sunday update of UK Covid data.

“I’ll keep it short, but it’s not good. Test positivity in London has now hit 27%. The climb from 17% to 27% has taken 5 days. In March it took 4.”

The thing is, in early March, everyone was just gadding about as normal, hugging, kissing, packed trains, restaurants, cinemas...

Is this is a very worrying effect of the new strain??

amp.ft.com/content/71140ee7-8e47-4499-9fcf-2d23d5c7d94f?__twitter_impression=true

@littleowl1

Jsut going back through the data - it does look like perhaps Kent and Essex have topped out and are turning a corner.

If you sort by county the table on www.covidmessenger.com and scan down through the counties, it is very apparent - you can see quite a few councils in the worst hit counties (Kent. Essex etc) are now green.

Obvious caveat being that there are some data anomalies over the holiday period but it still looks promising.

The picture in Essex is a lot more mixed and I struggle to see the evidence to support a more positive view. Individual graphs for each of the 12 Essex district councils - lets not pretend any are in a remotely good place in terms of case per 100,000 rates. Although that statement could of course be applied to every single council area in England

Brentwood looks like it may have started to turn the corner, joined possibly by Epping Forest. Unfortunately that is just 2 out of 12.

Basildon, Castle Point, Rochford - a slight Christmas dip but creeping up again.

Braintree, Chelmsford, Colchester, Harlow, Maldon, Tendring, Uttlesford all continue upward trajectories.

Hopefully delayed school openings may start to improve the position.

A very unknowing post here - but would hospitalisation by occupation even be known? Do people fill out forms with this

The data is collected when a test is booked, but hasn't been released since May afaik. I'm aware that a few FOI requests have been made and refused. If anyone knows of any data I'd be very interested.

@everything. I'm not sure the positivity rate is the best measure for comparing the rise in March to the current one because the criteria for testing has changed so much. In early March we were testing contacts of known cases (and not people with symptoms) and by mid March we'd given up on that and were only testing people on admission to hospital.

But the rise in positivity - in London in particular - reflects a very real rise in case rates, that's clear.

Hospitalisation stats I don't know, I refer to test data only. Would like to see.

to give Essex a bit more context, each Kent district, some still heading upwards but I'd concur more positive overall, although largely flatlining as opposed to increasing.

[quote Firefliess]@everything. I'm not sure the positivity rate is the best measure for comparing the rise in March to the current one because the criteria for testing has changed so much. In early March we were testing contacts of known cases (and not people with symptoms) and by mid March we'd given up on that and were only testing people on admission to hospital.

But the rise in positivity - in London in particular - reflects a very real rise in case rates, that's clear. [/quote]
Wouldn't we expect the positivity rate in March to be higher though as it was only testing people who they thought were definitely likely to be positive rather than any symptoms (and some who want to for a check)?

Hertfordshire districts - largely still heading up, albeit several with a thankfully lower base than some of the Essex districts

Yes I have no idea why John Murdoch Burn would make that statement, March testing was so very different!

Unless he means precisely that - the rate of infection in the general population now is what it was in serious cases in March and before any restrictions???

I agree some parts of Kent seem to have cases dropping, but it's at MSOA level and there's some counterbalance of increases in other areas. Looking across the London MSOAs, there are ups and downs; some early peak areas have more stable cases and areas only just hit in Surrey still rising, but overall I'd say case direction is looking deprivation dependent. If the new variant wave hit a few weeks ago and it's a wealthier area, then the rate of increase and even case numbers look to be dropping. If it's an area known for higher deprivation and particularly blocks of flats, then cases are still rising. I am concerned the increased transmissibility will actually increase the deprivation impact; working out of the home and higher density housing being the most obvious factors. It's looking particularly terrible in East London, the crappiest parts of Croydon etc. Could even flats themselves have a bigger impact (sharing lifts / stairwells) with this variant?

You might expect positivity rates to increase sharply for the 7 day period including Christmas, as possibly fewer people with no symptoms would bother to get tested between say 23 and 28 Dec (in parts of London asymptomatic testing has been possible for a couple of weeks, I think) than at other times. So any 7 day period including that 23-28 Dec would have a higher positivity rate? Just a hypothesis though!

And yes rates in March not like for like, as only people in hospital were being tested, so you would expect higher positivity rates then.

Does JMB say which are the 5 days in March?

I don't think people were hugging, kissing, packed trains quite as normal in early March though. A lot were, it's true but I do remember first week in March some people starting to not get public transport if they could avoid it, work events starting to be cancelled, avoiding physical contact like shaking hands. So yes still lots of social mixing (and nothing like now, obviously!) but not complete normality.

Good point. Which March days because the first ones were very different to the end ones?

Following the new strain into Suffolk then Norfolk. Y axis adjusted to a maximum of 600, rather than the 1600 used for the Essex, Kent and Herts graphs.

Rates rising across the board. and quite markedly in many instances tripling or worse as compared with the 7 Dec start point.

Cambridgeshire and the slight oddity that is Lincolnshire. in terms of case rates before any yellowbelly reaches for their tractor keys

The 5 Cambs districts all showing increasing rates, again from relatively less high start points.

Lincolnshire is more like a particularly dull and very gently undulating roller coaster. It has a mix of districts showing a clear downward trend - so Boston and Lincoln; and then the two immediately bordering either Norfolk and / or Cambridgeshire showing increases South Holland and South Kesteven. Coastal East Lindsey almost a straight line.

So whilst the new variant has spread, its level of spread has perhaps started to tail off a bit the further up the eastern side of England we go?

Re JBMs comments, the full article makes it clearer www.ft.com/content/71140ee7-8e47-4499-9fcf-2d23d5c7d94f

What he’s saying was the last time we saw a positivity rate this high was when we were only testing those in hospital with symptoms, ie this is really really bad

So what I was saying. 💩 but take the smile away.

Behind paywall dinosaur, could you maybe copy it? (Is that a dreadful thing to ask someone to do??)

I'll have a look behind the scenes tomorrow at the specific pillar 2 testing positivity levels, including stripping out the lateral flow from PCRs. I fear the figures will be worse again.

How weird, I don’t pay and I can see it!

I went via the link in this tweet twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1345802429036699653?s=21

If that doesn’t work I’ll copy it over

and finally for this evening back to the new variant - graphs for the Surrey district council areas.

yes the link from twitter avoids the paywall; thanks @TheDinosaurTrain

Thanks @boys3 for creating the graph. Another contributor to some of the steep rise on the 29th may be the rapid response units. I know Brentwood and other parts of Essex had them and they were open to people without symptoms who would then have their test confirmed by a nose swab test, so by testing more they found more cases. When there was mass testing in the north there were also spikes in the data, and undoubtedly the same will happen again when testing is introduced in secondary schools