Daily stats, numbers, data thread 02 Jan

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots [[imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

59937 cases

Another 1035 deaths

Only the second time we've had 4 days consecutively of over 1k deaths a day by reporting.
The first was 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th April, which was the worst 7 days of the first wave.

Maybe with these kinds of figures it will help focus the minds of the entitled brigade

For England spec dates

8 Jan 3566 added

7 Jan 21992 added, total so far 25358

6 jan 14363 added , 38548 so far

5 Jan 11123 added, 54754 so far

4 Jan 2544 added, 68180 so far

3 Jan 317, 49290 for a Sunday

Dribs and drabs with another 346 added for 28 dec to o02 jan.

For the über geeks the 12 added a few days ago to 1st feb 2020 have all been adjusted off in today’s release, along with the additional 11 added on the same day as those 12 for 1st March

@Witchend, sadly I think, perhaps Monday aside, daily deaths in the 4 figures for the next couple of weeks, and the grim milestone of 100.000 deaths before the end of the month.

For the über geeks the 12 added a few days ago to 1st feb 2020 have all been adjusted off in today’s release.

I was actually wondering if they had found an early cluster of COVID infections (going back to Feb 1) but not surprisingly it was just a spreadsheet error.

Oh well...

@boys3

I agree. I was going to put that cases a month ago were around half what we have today, which may bode for the future, then deleted it for being too depressing.

The other issue I'm noticing is people just change their expectation, even among people on this thread who are, on the whole, aware pf the facts.
Remember the horror of 22k when they'd been lost down the back of the sofa? Then this week with 52k there were sighs of relief that it wasn't "that bad". People are adjusting their sights as to what's bad without realising, becoming acclimatised to larger numbers.

I think we need to realise that, going by the deaths, we're probably surpassing the first wave figures, possibly by quite a bit as, I believe, survival rates have improved. We can't any more hide behind "oh, but we weren't testing enough in the first wave so that was worse."

And another rather alarming statistic for the UK:

1 million cases reached: 31st October 2020
2 million cases reached: 19th December 2020 (49 days)
3 million cases reached: 9th January 2021 (21 days)

And if I look at the equivalent for deaths:
10k 7/4/2020
20k 18/4/2020 (11 days)
30k 4/5/2020 (16 days)
40k 20/6/2020 (47 days)
50k 7/11/2020 (140 days)
60k 30/11/2020 (23 days)
70k 22/12/2020 (22 days)
80k 6/1/2021 (may be earlier as still adding on numbers) (16 days)

The table of daily cases in each council is updated with today's data on the www.covidmessenger.com homepage for anyone interested.

@billysboy

Maybe with these kinds of figures it will help focus the minds of the entitled brigade

Reading some of the other threads on Mumsnet unfortunately I don’t think they will.

Witchend, that’s such an alarming dataset. 4 million in a couple of weeks 😕

@Witchend in terms of cases, and without wanting to be too doom laden, cases a month ago, in England at least were just a quarter of where we are now.

7 day average at 7 dec 12979

At 18 dec 26317

Today based on spec date to 4th jan 54479

Thanks littleowl - as a Northerner the Merseyside / Cheshire figures are scary

From @littleowl1’s table. Just one green falling arrow, Richmond upon Thames and its decline is less than 1%.

@Witchend

And another rather alarming statistic for the UK:

1 million cases reached: 31st October 2020
2 million cases reached: 19th December 2020 (49 days)
3 million cases reached: 9th January 2021 (21 days)

Presumably, that is only cases confirmed on testing? (I am thinking it would be possible also to calculate the number of cases inferred from the ONS survey).

FalseAlarm - it’s scary and heartbreaking. Scroll back the map to august and watch it flow in (and out and in again) for a sense of the speed at which Merseyside has fallen twice

Fallen, as in succumbed that is.

There are certainly some huge week on week increases

All figures below cases per 100,000

Isle of Wight- an original tier 1 255 to 1148

Knowsley 254 to 1119

Halton 280 to 1173

Liverpool 242 to 860

Corby 263 to 922

Worcester 225 to 719

Craven 182 to 518

68 councils have seen their rates at least double, 40 were in the very original tier 1 or 2 categories.

52 councils have a rate in the last seven days of 1,000 per 100,000 or more, with 47 originally tier 1 or 2

Presumably, that is only cases confirmed on testing?

@herecomesthsun yes, confirmed on testing, which is why I didn't bother saying number of days for the first million as testing was right down.
I am thinking it would be possible also to calculate the number of cases inferred from the ONS survey
Go ahead. I'd be interested to see anyway.

And for what it is worth the week on week increase for district councils is the same as for the unitary / met councils.

Districts 396 to 642 per 100,000

Unitaries / Mets 439 to 700

So both up by almost the same percentage

Those rises are going to give the powers that be real cause for pause when releasing back to tiers. Halton, Knowsley and Liverpool were tier 2 (and then tier 3 for a few days before national lockdown). West Lancashire (which behaves like Merseyside societally) was tier 3 and then 4 and has had much slower growth, albeit it’s still purple and crappy on the map

On a more positive, although still grasping at straws, note 31 councils in England do currently have a lower rate than at the start of lockdown 2 at the beginning of last November.

@littleowl1 your table is stark today isn't it. My local area has suddenly gone out of control and was always one of the quiet areas for this. Hospitals now struggling. :(
Feeling very hopeless about it all today.

@TheDinosaurTrain

Those rises are going to give the powers that be real cause for pause when releasing back to tiers. Halton, Knowsley and Liverpool were tier 2 (and then tier 3 for a few days before national lockdown). West Lancashire (which behaves like Merseyside societally) was tier 3 and then 4 and has had much slower growth, albeit it’s still purple and crappy on the map

Yes, they do need to think more carefully about not just the case numbers at the time. The only area of Surrey that wasn't put into tier 3 and left at tier 2, has been one of the faster risers and is now going up the listing in Surrey. It was stupid to leave it out in the first place.