Daily stats, numbers, data thread 02 Jan

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots [[imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@Dinasaur. Yes there's clearly a lot more people out and about this time. But people forget how much voluntary closing of businesses there was the first time round, and how people stayed home out of shock and fear, and a native belief that this would just be for a few weeks. I don't think you can recreate that mentality by tougher legislation.

@QueenStromba I’m so sorry to disagree but I’m finding the information here a little vague. “Based on the trend in recent years”. None of the graphs are specific about how many years they are talking about. It shouldn’t be hard to find a simple graph with each year’s total mortality for the UK on it going back more than five or so years, but for some reason I’m struggling.

[quote Firefliess]@TheSun. I wonder whether they're asking people taking tests whether they've had a vaccine or not? If they do, you could see from that how effective they are. The Zoe app is asking you whether you've had a vaccine or not, so that should collect the data too in time. How you figure out whether the vaccinated people are still spreading it I'm not so sure though - other than watching what happens with whole populations as large numbers are vaccinated. [/quote]
Still have a couple of pages to read, so apologies if someone has already said this, but I've just booked a postal test. It asked me if I had had a vaccine (and specified one dose or two) and said somethign along the lines that this data was being used to track the impact of the vaccine. So that data is now being collated.

@Motorina
I find it patronizing and annoying that people are being treated as stupid kids. I don't want to do the research for them, I know I don't have the training/knowledge. But I want to be informed. Transparency pls.

Seeing that they collate the data doesn't nec mean that they are using it.

@TheSunIsStillShining

Remember that the vaccine has not been proven to be 100% effective and as more and more people are vaccinated we may see variation in this %.

This would be true if there was a followup protocol or data collection protocol for research purposes included in the vaccination program. But there isn't.

So in months to come a very real thing will be that we'll be doing guesswork and trying to scrape together enough other data to underpin (or not) our hypotheses.
And worse of all: it's going to be the same for scientists, researchers, ppl who actually could use the data in more meaningful ways than us on this forum. :(

I've just booked a test ( called up by ZOE) and I was asked to input information about vaccination, so some information is being collected.

That'll teach me to refresh before posting #oldnews

Thanks @motor and @cathy Sounds like they are collecting data when people take tests, as well as cross referencing with NHS records, so should be about to build even more evidence on effecacy.

@firefliess yes, I think so. The other thing that was new from when I booked a test in the summer was they asked me for my NHS number so i do think they are trying to tie in data.

At the moment, spread between 3 countries I have at least 15 friends sick with covid. 2 in hospital (in HU). So my friends are less lucky than yours

Given that people tend to have friends and acquaintances similar to themselves - I wonder if what's happened is my group have sufficient group immunity against new strain because of plenty of previous mixing, whilst I know few who've broken rules, they do do what they are allowed without further restriction on themselves.

But groups with more at risk people, they took more precautions and therefore the new strain got around their groups much more easily.

@ReadySteadyGo80 - you can find the graphs here but partial year: www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/excesswintermortalityinenglandandwales/2019to2020provisionaland2018to2019final. Annual details here: www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/monthlyfiguresondeathsregisteredbyareaofusualresidence.

Thanks for the vaccine answers 👍🏻

I found the analysis of effectiveness of delaying second doses of Pfizer and Oxford vaccines done by the JCVI that I was looking for yesterday, which I thought others on this thread might also like to read and critique:
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/949505/annex-a-phe-report-to-jcvi-on-estimated-efficacy-of-single-vaccine-dose.pdf

Thanks @SilenceIsNoLongerSuspicious, interesting to see the Moderna stats there too, particularly to see that each of them seems to take a similar time to build up antibodies.

@ReadySteadyGo80
Also try worldindata.org for graphs

@CrunchyCarrot I posted some nextstrain stuff before, but I’m not sure I’m understanding it! Or rather I’m not really sure I get the upshot of the findings e.g. on spread of new strains. I asked if anyone could help!

How do we interpret that excess deaths are running lower than spring, but hospital admissions higher?

Thank you so much but again this is only the last five years. The Nuffield trust did the last 20 years, which was much more enlightening, but every other source has partial data (ONS) or relates excess deaths just to the previous year. Surely this must be the easiest data to access and compile, to show the full extent of the pandemic in the clearest way, as it changes week by week over the past 20 or more years. So we can see how this pandemic is such a historical outlier. It feels very odd that it hasn’t been done. Maybe a challenge out there for all the fans of raw data!

@ATieLikeRichardGere

How do we interpret that excess deaths are running lower than spring, but hospital admissions higher?

In spring they didn't have treatment options. Now they do. It makes all the difference in death numbers. Higher hospitalization, I think, is due to multiple variables

• ppl are less inclined to "not overwhelm the NHS" and go if needed
• more transmissible --> more mild/medium cases just because the case numbers are higher. Although I didn't do data analysis to prove/disprove this hypothesis, so pinch of salt pls.

@ReadySteadyGo80 - section 2 in the link I gave you is Excess winter deaths and five-year central moving averages, England and Wales, occurring between 1950 to 1951 and 2019 to 2020. That's 70 years worth. www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/excesswintermortalityinenglandandwales/2019to2020provisionaland2018to2019final

@ATieLikeRichardGere

How do we interpret that excess deaths are running lower than spring, but hospital admissions higher?

Do you mean excess deaths as a figure compared with Spring, or as a proportion for the time of year? Winter would normally have more deaths than spring. I'm not up to date with whether flu deaths are up or down this year but i know there were recent posts with data on this.

I'm not up to date with whether flu deaths are up or down this year

There has been effectively no flu this year.

So the excess deaths look less excess because many fewer people are dieing from non-covid reasons, and the balance has so far been sufficient to not make any week an actual statistical outlier.

That will change, and also of course at different timescales you will also have outliers which aren't there over a single week, having one week with extra deaths isn't that unusual, having 4 weeks all with extra deaths is.

But so far deaths are nowhere near as much of an outlier than in the spring.

Bit of a tangent, but one take-home lesson I've learnt in all this is how much of a killer flu is normally. And we have a vaccine programme for it! I didn't appreciate how important it was to have a good national takeup of the flu jab - but will in future.

"having one week with extra deaths isn't that unusual, having 4 weeks all with extra deaths is."

That is interesting, I'd assumed that in any year when total deaths are above average for that year, it could well be that most individual weeks in winter of that year will be above the average - because the higher total figure may be due to something like particularly damaging strain of flu, which you would expect to lead to higher deaths each week.

But anyway, yes it is in some ways strange to think that so far this winter (and yes may change!) overall all-cause mortality is less than two sds away from the norm - so PHE defines as, so far, no statistically significant excess. (Quite different from spring .I think I hadn't realised how much the 'winter excess' is - deaths are definitely not evenly distributed throughout the year - although was aware that Jan/Feb are higher months.)

Great. Thank you! I’ll take another look. I just wish I had the tech capability to put it together as a clear graph. I think it would be really great to have that visual to counter the myth that it’s not worse than a regular bad flu season. If people could see the 2020/21 line rising and not following the usual viral model of peaking in the winter months and tapering off naturally in the spring, it would go a long way to persuading people to get the vaccine. Limiting the relatively easily available data to the last five years (as in the FT graphs) is bound to raise people’s skepticism.

It's not quite that simple; death rates have fallen over the past 70 years, but are always checked against 5yr average.