Daily stats, numbers, data thread 02 Jan

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots [[imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@HSHorror
A peak in london after xmas and new year is the people mixing when they shouldn't have in t4.
After Xmas can be infecting own household or support/care bubble given the timeframes. There is also hospitals, care homes, supermarkets open etc.

I have a question which is probably ridiculously thick but you are all more knowledgeable on science than me. Is it possible that by giving everyone the first vaccine dose with a longer gap before the next dose we are giving limited protection to a large group of people and it could encourage more new variants compared to doing less people with doses as initially approved? Apologies if this is a very stupid question.

Sorry question from me too. Didn't Boris say we would get daily updates of vacc numbers? I can see the weekly data on the data sets at the start of your thread but I don't know how to find daily vacc data. Thanks for any help!

HSHorror - it was a soft-play like centre, think that sort of building but a different specific activity indoors. They were still hosting parties under the “activities for under 18s”. I agree, not within the spirit of the law, but they had been advised by the council it was legal

I think there’s a lot of businesses making decisions like that at the moment, they’re on the edge of surviving so they’re making decisions about being open that they wouldn’t have taken last March. Dog groomers for example, first time round all shut. This time “it’s for the welfare of an animal” and doing business as normal. Multiply that across a thousand small decisions...

Daily vaccine updates are from Monday.

@FourTeaFallOut thanks!

more and more people actually see it. It's not on the news any more, it's people they see every day or know

We up north saw this effect early on in the autumn. When I look at rates since sept in many areas down south I can see that there must have been a false sense of security for many. Also potentially more fuel to conspiracy people. When you hear how ill a friend who is only in their 40's is, you do take notice. Though there must be a lot of long Covid cases in the south from the first wave.

@Monkeytennis97 - vaccine numbers are here: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare. Set as UK or England at the top and scroll to the bottom of the page, doesn't look to be available regionally.

@Reastie - the Oxford research showed that antibodies don't wane significantly in the 12 week timeframe, so unless you don't believe that research it's not more likely than the risks from having a vaccine at all. The main issue for vaccine escape is giving vaccine to people with weaker immune systems, but the logical next step to protect the vaccine by not vaccinating the vulnerable is ludicrous. If you consider similar situations, the flu vaccine is given to vulnerable people every year and flu vaccine mutations mean that it needs editing each year. It's possible in the long term that boosters may be needed for covid, and that those could cover mutated strains, or the original vaccine protection might be enough to make the mutated disease so mild it's unnecessary.

Just to pick up on the conversation about compliance and quietness. It is definitely not quiet where I am : tier 4 and number 40 odd in LittleOwl's 'charts'. I went to M and S yesterday and it was packed : no one counting people in, and no attempt at SD in the aisles. Normal Friday numbers. Roads are busy, offices I drive past are all open. I live on the only road into a large housing estate (bad house buying choice!) and it is almost as busy at 7am and 5pm A few Facebook fights about school ! The school across the road from me is quieter than normal (lower school) but I drive past a middle school ( so kids aged 9- 13) to come home and there are still two bus loads of kids being taken to and fro and quite a few walking home and being picked up. Part of the issue is the typical employment of the area : public sector and 'white van man' are largest employment areas.

My medium sized village had 60 cases last week. But people simply don't seem to be reacting to this. Something definitely does need to change but I can't see what. The only thing I can see that would make a real difference is toughening up on what businesses and shops can open (for example in market town near me, three coffee shops are open for takeaway which leads to people congregating: why are people so obsessed with takeaway coffee!?), for what hours and getting the message clearer about school attendance. yesterday the DfE reissued their guidance about critical workers and added a sentence about keeping the children at home but, once more, the horse has bolted, I think.

On the vaccine front my understanding is that the trials for the vaccines are continuing to monitor long term efficacy. I know 5 people on the AZ vaccine trial who continue to be monitored - when they signed up it also included monitoring for several years.

I actually have recently been signed up for the vaccine trial ( I signed up for vaccine trials ages ago and completely forgot!). It is for 2 1/2 years - and continues even once approval for the vaccine has occurred and I’ve been vaccinated with the real
Vaccine ( if I’ve had the placebo).

Meant to add this is in addition to @Mrex wider point on NHS

getting the message clearer about school attendance

I wrote to my MP last night with this same message. The more are in, the longer they are closed. (We could get them in of we wanted but keeping them home)

On schools the change in guidance has come too late I suspect. I know a lot of parents whose workplaces proactively emailed them to say to take up a place ( several university workers for example). I don’t think people will pull out children now. Also it hasn’t exactly been publicised much! I guess schools could at least use it now if numbers climb, but it’s very tricky for schools to question parents.

Our school has been much more proactive this time at (quite rightly) getting vulnerable children in from the off, which will have added to numbers.

Definitely agree re the takeaways, I think that’s the next to shut. McDonald’s near us is people central, loads of cars and everyone milling in the car park chatting with their friends while eating

That's good to hear that the can link data on cases and vaccines via NHS records, thanks @MRex. @littlestpogo - with the Covid vaccines at least, people are remaining in the trials until they are offered a vaccine via normal NHS priorities. At that point they are "unblinded" (told whether they had the vaccine or the placebo) so that they can get the vaccine if they've not already had it, and at that point they drop out of the trial. This happens even if they had the vaccine in the trial (so didn't need to get it again) simply because they now know they've had it, so that can affect behaviour. So yes, it does mean that the trials go on collecting data even while vaccines start to collect data. I guess the value of data they collect via NHS records might help pinpoint whether there's anything distinctive about the people who do catch Covid after vaccination, and whether they do get it more mildly - The numbers who caught it after vaccination in the trials were quite small so these things weren't so clear, and should become clearer with larger numbers.

Re people milling around outside takeaways - would it really help to crack down on this though? If you crack down on visible outdoor mixing is there a risk that people meet indoors instead where the risks of getting caught are much lower, but the risks of catching Covid much higher? If the women who were fined for taking a walk round the Derbyshire reservoir had sat in a living room for a coffee instead, I don't think the police would have known about it.

You can't (or at least shouldn't) be modelling the impact of reducing one form of mixing in the assumption of 100% compliance and no impact on other activities.

Can anyone point me towards a continuation of this chart (total deaths in 2020 vs the last 20 years.) Is from the Nuffield Trust website. All I can find is excess or total deaths compared to the last five years. And all of the graphs I can find average or deaths over five years, rather than showing individual years as data points to compare against as they do here (even if the individual years aren’t differentiated.) TIA!

@Firefliess - the trial I have recently joined specifies ( both verbally and in the consent information) that even when ‘unblinded’ and vaccinated I remain on the trial and monitored for the duration of up to 2 1/2 years ( unless I choose to leave of course).

So that trial is continuing ( I’m actually wondering if this so why they are recruiting atm for new volunteers - it’s for a vaccine that is very near to approval).

In case image didn’t attach to previous post

Should have added obviously the data is less ‘clear’ in that I will know I’m vaccinated - but I guess at that point hopefully the majority of my cohort will also be vaccinated ( in line with priorities - interestingly the trial actually provides for unblinding and offering the vaccine immediately to volunteers on approval if the government of the country permits it - U.K. gov has indicated it won’t )

Has anyone posted this site yet? I came across it browsing the FluTrackers forum, it's a fascinating look at how the COV-SARS-2 virus has been mutating since first discovered in Wuhan.

The left hand sidebar lets you change the parameters or the way the graph is displayed.

nextstrain.org/groups/neherlab/ncov/S.N501

@littlestpogo My guess would be that with the trial you're on they'll continue to monitor you for any adverse reaction even when unblinded, but they wouldn't normally go on including you in calculations of reported effecacy, as that requires participants to be blinded.

@Firefliess - sorry I get what you mean re efficacy. The monitoring is of antibody levels ( appreciate not the same as efficacy) and symptoms ( including with or without a positive test - the monitoring following a positive test for severity of symptoms also continues). So even if not officially feeding into efficacy it will be monitored ( if that makes sense - I had a long conversation about this)

Here's an excellent set of graphs showing excess mortality (no FT subscription required).

www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

Agree the takeaways themselves aren’t necessarily the issue, it’s the dilution of the stay at home message. Stay at home, unless you want to go for a takeaway, pop to a garden centre, go for a dog groom, etc etc etc. By which point well I’ve seen lots of people so it doesn’t matter if I see a few more. I haven’t seen the latest google mobility data but would be v interested to see the comparison between week 1 of the march lockdown vs this week.