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Daily stats, numbers, data thread 02 Jan

999 replies

PatriciaHolm · 02/01/2021 16:44

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots [[imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

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Thread gallery
66
Aixenprovence · 08/01/2021 22:04

Interesting report on twitter that all care home residents in Denmark have now been vaccinated - having started on 27 Dec.

It will be very interesting to see if over the next 7-21 days cases in that sector start to decline.

ancientgran · 08/01/2021 22:15

I don't live in London, a cul de sac with 8 houses. 6 houses had people staying at Christmas, my NDN had 3 visitors cars on his drive but I don't know how many in each car. They were there for 5 days. Across the road people from a high infection area had two car loads of family staying, they stay every year so I knew who they were. I was shocked at how much mixing there was at Christmas, we didn't see any of our children or anyone else for that matter but going on what I saw I think there was lots of mixing at Christmas.

I know a big family in the South East, mum, nearly 90, her 4 kids, their partners and the GC all got together. Three currently confirmed covid.

MRex · 08/01/2021 22:17

@starfish4 - best wishes for your relative getting well soon.

Thanks @Motorina, that's useful to clarify the high level timeframes.

TheSunIsStillShining · 08/01/2021 22:18

I think the "benefit" of these huge case numbers is that as it trickles into the community more and more people actually see it. It's not on the news any more, it's people they see every day or know.

I had our car taken to MOT +service on Tue. Yesterday they called me about parts ordering and to say they can't bring it back as all 3 drivers are in hospital w/covid and their staff numbers are low. Called today to tell me it's done, but I might not be able to take it next week as they have 4 of the 15 staff and if 1 more person gets sick they will have to close and my car will be parking there safely.
11 people, all actively sick with covid, not just isolating.

Our school had half the SLT off with covid for more than 14 days now. And, btw, school didn't notify us, I found out on twitter where I follow the HT (from way before she became our head).....

tootyfruitypickle · 08/01/2021 22:27

Yep our bin crews have been badly hit. Makes it feel real.

My elderly neighbour is still having daily visitors. How she’s staying well is beyond me.

Angrymum22 · 08/01/2021 22:29

There are two types of tetanus vaccine. Tetanus toxoid is given to produce immunity, tetanus immunoglobulin is given after an injury where tetanus may have been introduced into the body or for extensive burns and the patient has not completed immunisation or hasn’t had a recent booster.
The immunoglobulin does not produce immunity but contains antibodies to do the job for you. Many people have donated plasma after having Covid-19 so they can extract immunoglobulins for Covid to give to very sick patients. ( simplified explanation)
This means that the Covid-19 vaccination will not confer immunity until a few weeks after it is given however immunity gradually builds up so the longer it is after vaccination before you are infected the lest likely you are to experience severe Covid, this is not a definite though.
It may be that people are ignoring advice to continue shielding for a few weeks or they are just not sero converting. Remember that the vaccine has not been proven to be 100% effective and as more and more people are vaccinated we may see variation in this %. In addition some people may already be infected but not yet symptomatic when they receive the vaccine so it will have little effect.

oneglassandpuzzled · 08/01/2021 22:30

@TheSunIsStillShining

I think the "benefit" of these huge case numbers is that as it trickles into the community more and more people actually see it. It's not on the news any more, it's people they see every day or know.

I had our car taken to MOT +service on Tue. Yesterday they called me about parts ordering and to say they can't bring it back as all 3 drivers are in hospital w/covid and their staff numbers are low. Called today to tell me it's done, but I might not be able to take it next week as they have 4 of the 15 staff and if 1 more person gets sick they will have to close and my car will be parking there safely.
11 people, all actively sick with covid, not just isolating.

Our school had half the SLT off with covid for more than 14 days now. And, btw, school didn't notify us, I found out on twitter where I follow the HT (from way before she became our head).....

Yes, hopefully it brings it home to people that this is very, very real.
Wakeupin2022 · 08/01/2021 22:40

I wish so many people didn't die, but I do hope people start to take notice.

I remember saying on here I was worried about my county being Tier 2. People asked what I wanted - I wanted Tier 4 as I knew this new variant would spread.

Now we have over 600 per 100k in the city and over 800 per 100k in my MSOA.

We were 300 in LittleOwls list of councils just a few weeks ago........

I hope people start to take notice. My area has never been badly impacted but this just feels different.

I can't believe I am relived schools are closed to most pupils. I was quite sure that primary schools at the very least should remain open - until Dec 19th.

Anyway I hope this lockdown is sufficient. I am not convinced because so many children still at school and so many people still working.

TheSunIsStillShining · 08/01/2021 22:40

Remember that the vaccine has not been proven to be 100% effective and as more and more people are vaccinated we may see variation in this %.

This would be true if there was a followup protocol or data collection protocol for research purposes included in the vaccination program. But there isn't.

So in months to come a very real thing will be that we'll be doing guesswork and trying to scrape together enough other data to underpin (or not) our hypotheses.
And worse of all: it's going to be the same for scientists, researchers, ppl who actually could use the data in more meaningful ways than us on this forum. :(

Wakeupin2022 · 08/01/2021 22:42

There is news reports tonight that a nurse has caught covid 3 weeks after 1st dose.

It was always going to happen but irresponsible media will make it seem like the vaccine is not working when we know that it is not 10p% effective.

Wakeupin2022 · 08/01/2021 22:43

Apologies for the grammar. It has been a long week with homeschooling & work.

sirfredfredgeorge · 08/01/2021 22:50

I think the "benefit" of these huge case numbers is that as it trickles into the community more and more people actually see it. It's not on the news any more, it's people they see every day or know

London borough with very high rates, a neighbouring to yours I believe, but I know no-one locally who's had it or had to isolate as a contact since early december. Certainly know no-one who is sick.

TheSunIsStillShining · 08/01/2021 22:58

@sirfredfredgeorge

I think the "benefit" of these huge case numbers is that as it trickles into the community more and more people actually see it. It's not on the news any more, it's people they see every day or know

London borough with very high rates, a neighbouring to yours I believe, but I know no-one locally who's had it or had to isolate as a contact since early december. Certainly know no-one who is sick.

At the moment, spread between 3 countries I have at least 15 friends sick with covid. 2 in hospital (in HU). So my friends are less lucky than yours :(
ATieLikeRichardGere · 08/01/2021 23:20

Do we know whether time frames from exposure to infectiousness to symptoms to hospitalisation are necessarily the same with the new strain?

Firefliess · 08/01/2021 23:49

@TheSun. I wonder whether they're asking people taking tests whether they've had a vaccine or not? If they do, you could see from that how effective they are. The Zoe app is asking you whether you've had a vaccine or not, so that should collect the data too in time. How you figure out whether the vaccinated people are still spreading it I'm not so sure though - other than watching what happens with whole populations as large numbers are vaccinated.

TheSunIsStillShining · 08/01/2021 23:56

@Firefliess
Asking on a form as a non-mandatory question and without the batch number is not proper research data gathering method. It's somewhat informative, but not even that really. People lie.
Also, they shouldn't even be asked as gov should have all the data, but there are no signs of follow up researches being even planned.

In the EU once you submit a clinical research paper it is made public through a centralized process. As always: transparency would be key.
If anyone knows of such in the UK I'd be grateful for the link. There can be some real interesting research ideas :)
and I'm bored.

TheSunIsStillShining · 09/01/2021 00:04

[quote Firefliess]@TheSun. I wonder whether they're asking people taking tests whether they've had a vaccine or not? If they do, you could see from that how effective they are. The Zoe app is asking you whether you've had a vaccine or not, so that should collect the data too in time. How you figure out whether the vaccinated people are still spreading it I'm not so sure though - other than watching what happens with whole populations as large numbers are vaccinated. [/quote]
As an idea
in very high rate areas select a smaller msoa, vaccinate every third person and record what happens. Also closely trace their movements through an app.
I know, privacy. But it's tit for tat: allow app to track your movements (not self proclamation) and you get the vacc faster/sooner. Comply with everything and you get a bonus of £xxx. don't comply and you'll still have the vacc (already in you :)) but you'll lose your bonus.

create multiple pocket trial areas and have control msoa's with almost same rates/pop/demographic/etc...

It's not that hard.
Very secure tracking app could be developed in weeks - standards/frameworks are already available. Designing a trial for me would be a week or 2. If few ppl who actually have done this before would do it, probably a few days,
If I had money to spend* I could design/develop/roll out this in about 3 weeks. Max. 5.

It's not rocket science...

*because I have money it actually would mean a group of professionals who have done this before and not me as a stand alone individual :)

TheSunIsStillShining · 09/01/2021 00:06

and the beauty of a system like this would be that it can be reused to study other infectious diseases in non-covid years. Or use it for cluster analysis. Or use it for any vacc efficacy analysis - eg new flu jab every year

TheSunIsStillShining · 09/01/2021 00:10

slightly tangent, but we do look at population stats sometimes, I found this:

www.citypopulation.de/en/uk/admin/greater_london/E09000027__richmond_upon_thames/

You can drill down to ward level.

megletthesecond · 09/01/2021 00:34

Someone else has developed it days after the vaccination, Dr Ronx who presents operation ouch. Although I think we always knew immunity takes time to bed in.

megletthesecond · 09/01/2021 00:36

Sorry, I've said "someone else" even though the poster who mentioned the other case wasn't certain. Apologises for not being accurate. It's late.

Witchend · 09/01/2021 01:01

I think though that if around a million people have had the vaccine and in places it's about 5% of people have covid we would expect to see some cases.

If say the vaccine is 95% effective, 1 000 000 is still 50 000 people who have had the jab and are not covered. Add into that they may be less inclined to be careful, or more likely to be care/NHS workers, and I think I'd expect there to be some cases in the vaccinated population.

JanuaryChill · 09/01/2021 01:04

Saturday newspapers carrying stories about toughening up policing of people's activities and the government's new ad campaign including pictures of seriously ill Covid patients.

Trouble is, I don't think the new slogan "act as if you've got it" makes sense - or not for those of us who still have to go out to work, and to the supermarket. Otherwise, yeah, great.

HSHorror · 09/01/2021 01:05

train - Soft play cant open in t3....

It looks more like 4d to test positive. If you look at xmas 25->29th
A peak in london after xmas and new year is the people mixing when they shouldn't have in t4.
Will the new year one be even higher as people infected from xmas have parties

MRex · 09/01/2021 06:26

@Firefliess - PHE monitors vaccine efficacy for flu every year using control groups from certain trusts, this is not new for them. They may require every trust to report vaccine efficacy for covid because the vaccines are new and all will be available to everyone, or they may follow the sampling method. Either way, the trusts can identify the data because the vaccine is linked to NHS record and so are test results (in both cases some tiny number will prove difficult due to dual records or whatever, but can be ignored for statistical purposes).