Daily stats, numbers, data thread 02 Jan

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots [[imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Apologies for the bluntness, but how long does it usually take people to die from covid, I mean with the lag are we seeing people that got infected before Christmas that are now sadly dying? I just want to be prepared, now the death rate is above the worst of wave 1, when we had a stricter/more adhered to lockdown and less medical knowledge (ie they can now save people that would have died in W1, so some of the deaths in W1 would have been avoided if they happened now which makes the new high even worse.)

Yes and what also makes it worse is that they were reporting deaths from over 28 days at that point in the daily report as well. :(

@ATieLikeRichardGere

A tangent but, did anyone listen to the latest How to Vaccinate the World podcast interviewing Larry Brilliant? I think he was taking about a historically game changing method of basically vaccinating the circle of contacts around a person infected with smallpox because the vaccine had a prophylactic effect post exposure. Has anyone seen any research around this for the covid vaccines? If there was such a vaccine effect, I feel now would be the time to use it. In line with contact tracing it could be impactful. Is any study ongoing I wonder?

As far as I know from my limited training in vaccines and virology (I give vaccines so I have to know a bit, but not a lot), a this only works with some. It does work with Tetanus, for example because we give Tetanus vaccines after potential exposure. I would guess it has to do with how much viral load it takes to cause illness, how quickly the vaccine confers immunity and the incubation period of the virus. I remember my sister being given the TB vaccine after our uncle died of TB, so perhaps it works with that too?

Because incubation period for covid is shorter than time to vaccine efficacy, I'm guessing it wouldn't work with this.

@Madhairday

Yes and what also makes it worse is that they were reporting deaths from over 28 days at that point in the daily report as well. :(

Yes, but there weren't many deaths from over 28 days at that point simply because it hadn't been known for that long. Even if there were deaths, they may well not have been attributed to Covid because they wouldn't necessarily have thought of testing at the point they became ill.

Yes that's true Witchend, wouldn't have been many at all.

@CatVsChristmasTree thank you for your thoughts that makes sense. I might relisten to hear more about what he was saying. Would be a great tool to have right now.

@ATieLikeRichardGere - thanks, I was vaguely remembering both 4 and 10, so 3-10 days from symptoms to hospital is about the same. If we take it as 10, plus 5 days from infection... Then people going into hospital today roughly got infected on Christmas Eve. That means it has to have skipped through one family member first because Tier 4 was 19th. It is very slightly possible that today is the last big "shop before Xmas" set of infections going into hospital. I'm being really hopeful here and piling assumptions on top of assumptions, so anyone please correct if these are wrong. But if tomorrow goes down then I think we can start to breathe. If it doesn't go down in the next few days, then I'd say we're fucked because that means it's now transmitting in flats / outdoors / etc; very unexpected places basically.

I don’t know if you’re right @MRex but I really hope you are!!

Let’s hope that the one day in primary school for millions of pupils and teachers on 4 Jan (outside of london/south east/east) doesn’t result in another spike in cases next week....

If it doesn't go down in the next few days, then I'd say we're fucked because that means it's now transmitting in flats / outdoors / etc; very unexpected places basically.

Not sure about that. There's lots of people out and about in shops here, plus I know three separate people (one teacher, 2 pupils) who are isolating from the single day in school none of those 3 are connected.
And with the estimated over 50% in schools in some areas I think that is going to remain an issue.

I think the big numbers still in school and nurseries are going to be an issue for a bit (until the bubbles start popping and more have to stay off)

On R4 PM prog today they said in some parts of London the rate of infection is 1 in 20.

Also they had a doctor talking about how current PE is still not really adequate.

One in 20 🙁

Do we think herd immunity will start to slow things soon? If there really are £160k infections per day, that’s over a million per week becoming immune..?!

@Regulus

Apologies for the bluntness, but how long does it usually take people to die from covid, I mean with the lag are we seeing people that got infected before Christmas that are now sadly dying? I just want to be prepared, now the death rate is above the worst of wave 1, when we had a stricter/more adhered to lockdown and less medical knowledge (ie they can now save people that would have died in W1, so some of the deaths in W1 would have been avoided if they happened now which makes the new high even worse.)

Rule of thumb figures

5 or 6 days from exposure to symptoms
7 days from onset of symptoms to admission
Death follows in a varying time-frame afterwards, depending on treatment offered.

We're now precisely two weeks from Christmas Day (it seems an eternity ago!) so we'd expect to see the impact in the admissions, but not yet the deaths, particularly as there's a lag between dying and showing up in the numbers.

(Kennel Cough is another that can be given prophylactically to contacts. At least, my vet did so when one of my two dogs was suspected to have it. If it works in one respiratory infection, then maybe????)

I'm going to say this as perhaps I'm not the only one wondering ....

1 in 20 is what ? 5% .Is that awful ?Doesn't it mean that 95% do not have the virus ?

Or is it the exponential thing that makes it so scary ? So that 5% just keeps on growing .

I suspect that I don't need to explain that I have a v poor grasp of arithmetic .

Again on timeframes, this is a US site but has really good analysis:

covidtracking.com/analysis-updates/record-hospitalizations-trouble-jan-6

I'm sharing it in this context because it has graphs of cases, admissions, and deaths side by side, so it's easy to see how one follows the next and the lag between them.

If you look at the bottom of the trough, in september, the difference between the cases curve and the admissions curve is two weeks. It's then a further two weeks to the same point on the curve on the deaths chart. So that's a four week lag from diagnosis to death. If you add the average 5.5 days from exposure to symptoms, then it's almost 5 weeks. That's US, of course, but I would expect us to be similar.

So its definitely too soon for Christmas to be showing up in the fatality figures.

It’s not really the same as your chance of getting it though perhaps. 1 in 20 must mean several people on every street.

But yes, important to note that most people don’t have it. And won’t get it .

1 in 20 is truly horrific peridito. That’s 5% of the population of London that have it right now, who will spread it to others over the coming days. A proportion of that 5% will get really sick and need hospitalising, and there won’t be enough beds to treat them all effectively. A proportion of those hospitalised will die.

I’m shielding so don’t see anyone, but I imagine if you went to a supermarket you’d see more than 20 people. What about on a bus? In a tower block stairwell. In an office building? A factory...

@peridito it's pretty awful. There were around 20 people in my workplace today. Were I in London (I'm not) that would mean, on average, one of them would be infected. How many people does a london bus hold? Or a tube carriage? If one in 20 of those are infected, then how many journeys do you have to do before you end up nose-in-armpit of someone with covid? It means if you get petrol, then the odds are one in 20 that the person who touched that pump before you shed virus all over it. Or that cashpoint. Or handrail. One in 20 that the guy who gave you your change in the supermarket had virus on their fingers.

And a decent chunk of those will be presymptomatic, and have no idea at all that they're sharing their virus.

It's... not good.

It’s not 1 in 20 in London but in certain parts- not everywhere

My relative has just tested positive. Definite exposure 25 or 26, symptoms on 1 Jan, tested at home on 3 Jan.

Thank you tootyfruity ,Dinosaur and Motorina - helpful posts for me .I think numbers mean so little to me ,I need that visualisation of 20 people in the supermarket .

Motorina I'm barel;y going out and when I do ,I walk or cycle . I'm in London . The buses and tubes ,when I used them over the summer ,weren't crowded .Buses have taped off seats etc .So not perhaps as bad as you might fear .But I absolutely take your point!

With the one in 20, I agree that’s horrifyingly high. However I would hope at least half of them would be at home poorly/isolating...?

"We're now precisely two weeks from Christmas Day (it seems an eternity ago!) so we'd expect to see the impact in the admissions."

Although, in London (and other Tier 4? but I'm mentioning London because of the hospital situation in London) mixing wasn't allowed on Christmas Day. (If anything there might have been even less social contact on Christmas Day than on other days as nobody would have been going to large supermarkets,, or on the tube or rail - there wasn't any! Corner shops would still have been open.)

I realise 14 days is only a rough guide to the time from infection to admission, of course, so maybe you wouldn't expect to see any effect either way on one single day.