Daily stats, numbers, data thread 02 Jan

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots [[imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

RP does it, but his top bracket is over 70 - today’s chart is here, which shows increasing numbers in the over 70s in most areas

twitter.com/rp131/status/1347224283970416648?s=21

The government dashboard for England has age heat maps and the date can be downloaded - unfortunately doesn’t seem to be falling in over 80s
About 12k cases in the past 7 days vs about 8k in the previous 7 days for the over 80s

Locally we've got bad outbreaks in at least one carehome, carers and residents. It's not sounding good.

Age heatmaps:
mobile.twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1347202807179390984

Thank you @CoffeeandCroissant, I've been worrying about anecdotal reports that 'half of ITU patients are under 40' etc. The idea that this could be true and we are therefore vaccinating the wrong group and won't hit the majority of those most likely to be hospitalised in the coming months is terrifying.

I won't say your links are reassuring because clearly the situation is horrific but at least those heat maps support the vaccine priority schedule because the majority of hospitalisations are in the groups that will be vaccinated first.

@RaggieDolls - that statistic is partly an artefact of ITU admission criteria. ITU is absolutely brutal on the body and, if you're already very frail, the odds of you surviving the trauma of ITU and recovering to a reasonable quality of life are low. Which means that, on average, if you have two patients, one 50 and one 90, both with equally severe covid, the 50 year old will be admitted to ITU and the 90 year old won't. It's not about rationing (yet!); it's that the likelyhood of the 90 year old surviving the trauma that is ITU is much lower, even if they recover from covid.

That means average age in ITU is lower than average age of covid patients receiving palliative care on the wards or in their care home, and lower than the average age of death.

Thank you everyone for providing the links/sources.

It's interesting that hospitalisation is higher in 0-5 year olds than 5-9 year olds - v low in both and perhaps numbers are so low that it's just statistical noise (I notice he didn't use any shading on either category).

I suppose in the 0-5 bracket you have premature babies and babies born to mum's with covid..that might make a slight difference. My premmie got a bad chest every winter until she was 3 I can imagine there are a lot like her who swab positive for covid even if that isn't the cause of thei symptoms.

@Hardbackwriter I don't think it's that surprising that the number of under 5s in hospital with Covid is higher than 5-9s. I suspect the under 5s are probably mostly infants (who hospitals are always more anxious to monitor if they're poorly) or newborn babies who are in hospital because of being born (and have caught Covid while there) but aren't necessarily very ill with it.

@RaggieDolls someone linked to this very helpful analysis a couple of days ago about how quickly deaths / hospitalisations/ ITU occupancy might reduce as different groups are vaccinated mobile.twitter.com/doctimcook/status/1346414105331163137 .

By the time you've vaccinated the top 8 groups (those age 55 and over and the CEV), at a thought read from the graphs, it predicts you reduce deaths by 95% ish, hospital occupancy by 80% ish and ITU occupancy by 65% ish.

What worries me, is how far down the priority groups you have to get before hospitalisations and ITU usage drop significantly. Vaccinating that many people seems unlikely to be done by mid February when they are currently talking about loosening restrictions.

[quote Motorina]@RaggieDolls - that statistic is partly an artefact of ITU admission criteria. ITU is absolutely brutal on the body and, if you're already very frail, the odds of you surviving the trauma of ITU and recovering to a reasonable quality of life are low. Which means that, on average, if you have two patients, one 50 and one 90, both with equally severe covid, the 50 year old will be admitted to ITU and the 90 year old won't. It's not about rationing (yet!); it's that the likelyhood of the 90 year old surviving the trauma that is ITU is much lower, even if they recover from covid.

That means average age in ITU is lower than average age of covid patients receiving palliative care on the wards or in their care home, and lower than the average age of death.[/quote]
Thanks for this Motorina
I saw someone saying somewhere about the low average age in ICU and I was wondering why

This worries me. Im group 6 with multiple CV issues which combined make me feel higher risk (we are acting as if shielding).
I feel I could be in those statistics... it would be awful if im2 expected to send my child back or catch it before I get the vaccine.

Good point, clareykb and Firefliess - that makes perfect sense, that it could well be the very, very young who would be more closely monitored even if not very unwell.

@RaggieDolls the heat maps you link to compare rates per 100,000 population in each age category. Hospitilisation rates are sadly very high in the 85 + s per 100,000, and much lower I'm the 45-64s. However, there are a lot more 45-64s than there are 85+ s, and you can't work out how many people there are in hospital from each age group without taking the population size into account.

I do think it'll also be births. The case rates linked to below is 4 per 100,000 under 5s. Out of 100,000 under 5s, 1,640 of them are babies who have been born within the last 30 days. So doesn't seem unlikely that 3 or 4 of these may be positive for Covid and in hospital (for health reasons, prematurely, failure to gain weight etc)

Very high admissions for over 85’s and they mostly won’t be offered ICU so the highest age range for that is 65-74.

The numbers of over 85’s being admitted is huge compared to other age groups

[quote Duckchick]@RaggieDolls the heat maps you link to compare rates per 100,000 population in each age category. Hospitilisation rates are sadly very high in the 85 + s per 100,000, and much lower I'm the 45-64s. However, there are a lot more 45-64s than there are 85+ s, and you can't work out how many people there are in hospital from each age group without taking the population size into account.[/quote]
I may be wrong, but isn't this what 'rates per 100,000 in each age group' is? or should it say "rates per 100,000 - shown in each age group"?

The more I think about it, the more I think my assumption was wrong and it's not adjusted for population size of each age group.

@Quarantino - are you talking about local authority heat maps on the government dashboard? The "about" says "Rates by age group
Rate of people with a positive COVID-19 virus test result per 100,000 population by specimen date, broken down by 5-year age group."
So, case volume is adjusted per 100,000 population in the local authority and then the cases are broken down by age group. Not per 100,000 0-5yo in that borough, I.e. a much smaller or larger population in a 5yr age band in a district might "look" good or bad respectively.

At least, that's what I think it's saying. I hadn't considered before, but that could make a big difference in some areas.

Sorry - I've possibly confused myself- I meant the Dr Duncan Robinson tweeted heatmaps for positivity, hospitalization and icu, posted by CoffeeandCroissants

But i now realise that's not what duck/raggie were referring to.

Just been looking at RP131’s graphs on Twitter, and relieved to see growth has slowed right down in the east where I am, as well as the south east and London. Basically those areas that went into tier 4 before Xmas. So far there doesn’t look like a huge spike on 4 Jan here (I know it could change) but it’s looking a lot better than most other regions. Is this a good sign that this lockdown will work, and we should start to see the same pattern in the rest of the UK soon? I really hope the lockdown combined with vaccines mean we never get back to those crazy figures ever again. Am I being too ambitious here?
@littleowl1 I love your website thank you so much for your efforts. Just wondering as most places are showing rises still, do you expect to see more areas falling in the next few days? Or at least plateauing...?

@Motorina, thank you. That makes a lot of sense. It's just so worrying when statements such as 'half my ITU patients are under 40' are thrown around. That group aren't even on the vaccine schedule at the moment.

@Duckchick, that link is fascinating, thank you. The target is the top four groups by mid Feb so you are right that the expectation that things will change then doesn't align with vaccination progress. Let's hope the target is a cautious one, it's possible given they've publicly announced it.

@Tea I think you could be right. The Zoe app also shows cases failing in London the last few days. But we'll have a clearer idea in a few days time. My mum lives in an area that never went to tier 4 and tells me that the roads were really busy on 4/5 January as everyone rushed out to the sales before lockdown, so you would expect it to take a little longer for case rates to fall in those areas.