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Daily stats, numbers, data thread 02 Jan

999 replies

PatriciaHolm · 02/01/2021 16:44

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots [[imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

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We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

OP posts:
Thread gallery
66
Duckchick · 08/01/2021 06:59

@Quarantino the data from @CoffeeandCroissant is what I was talking about. It gives hospital occupancy by 100,000 k population in that age group, so the data has been normalised by age. So, for example, the rates for the last week data was available were 244/100,000 for the over 85s and 28 per 100,000 in those aged 45-64. To get the absolute number of people in hospital though, which is what matters in terms of relieving pressure on hospitals - I think you have to multiply by the size of the population of each.

Using data from here (www.statista.com/statistics/281174/uk-population-by-age/) there are very roughly 1.6 million over 85s and 17 million 45-64 year olds, so just over 10 times as many. Combined with the hospitalisation data, that means you actually have slightly more 45-64s in hospital than you do 85 pluses. I've done a quick google and can't find data to check but that does seem about right based on news stories I've seen.

@MRex I suspect you are right about the heat maps, so any population bulges by age in any area will make cases look high for that age.

sirfredfredgeorge · 08/01/2021 09:45

so you would expect it to take a little longer for case rates to fall in those areas

I'm not convinced the restrictions are sufficient to reduce the spread below 1 in new variant areas without significant immunity though - is there anywhere that is dropping that hadn't had very high case numbers before?

Yummyoldbag · 08/01/2021 10:24

Morning! Has anyone seen anything about track and trace recently? We really need to see that beginning to work as a system now ☹️

TheSunIsStillShining · 08/01/2021 10:25

@Yummyoldbag

Morning! Has anyone seen anything about track and trace recently? We really need to see that beginning to work as a system now ☹️
Don't hold your breath
TheSunIsStillShining · 08/01/2021 10:27

I don't see why numbers would significantly fall. This lockdown is no more than a patomkin village.
Schools have quite high attendance, shops are almost all open in Richmond/Wandsworth areas that I drove through, people are still out and about in massive numbers and still mask usage is low (albeit higher than before).
Why do we have to prolong the suffering?

(ok, slightly melodramatic)

oneglassandpuzzled · 08/01/2021 10:53

My mum lives on the Kingston/Richmond border and said her local parade was all closed bar food shops and newsagent/post office. Very quiet. Most people in masks. I think it varies a lot in that part of the world.

Firefliess · 08/01/2021 11:01

@sirfred. I think it's hard to tell. The places that haven't yet had a good proportion of people infected (so not much herd immunity) are also of course the same places that weren't ever put into Tier 4. So we will just have to wait a few more days to see whether the lockdown is sufficient to bring the R below 1 in these areas.

BigWoollyJumpers · 08/01/2021 11:11

@Yummyoldbag

Morning! Has anyone seen anything about track and trace recently? We really need to see that beginning to work as a system now ☹️
Track and trace can only really work on low case numbers, ever. See Germany. Once we get past a certain number, tracking and tracing is outpaced by infection numbers. Lockdown then becomes your only option.
BigWoollyJumpers · 08/01/2021 11:12

www.health.org.uk/news-and-comment/charts-and-infographics/nhs-test-and-trace-performance-tracker

Here is what you need in numbers.

BigWoollyJumpers · 08/01/2021 11:15

Actually much better than I had anticipated!

BigWoollyJumpers · 08/01/2021 11:16

Oh, and this is test and trace, rather than track...... depends on what you actually asked. Sorry. Track is entirely different.

sleepwhenidie · 08/01/2021 11:24

Anecdata alert but in Camden the streets are dead, like lockdown v1. Which is good. Will be such a relief if the apparent trend in London numbers continues, the situation in hospitals sounds terrifying.

cathyandclare · 08/01/2021 11:34

Quite surprised by those track and trace figures, would have expected it to plateau rather than following the cases so closely.

Firefliess · 08/01/2021 12:09

Sounds as if the change that test and trace have made so that one call handler deals with an entire family has been successful. Good to see they're keeping up ok with the rise in cases. It matters little for all the people working from home, but for those who still work outside home, it'll be helping them know when you isolate. Increasing sick pay would help a lot too though!

BigWoollyJumpers · 08/01/2021 12:18

Nice updated graphic set here:
ourworldindata.org/local-covid-uk

lurker101 · 08/01/2021 12:30

@sleepwhenidie I have to agree - where we are in west London it’s a very similar story, even the parks are much quieter when we’re out exercising.

Some more anecdata (sorry)
Our local health centre has now vaccinated all over 80’s and has moved into the over 75’s category based on info from the local newsletter today, and one of the schools open for key workers tested all staff and pupils on Tuesday - finding positives to be confirmed by PCR tests.

herecomesthsun · 08/01/2021 12:33

new ONS stats here www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/8january2021

London 1 in 25 to 1 in 30

from 27 Dec- 2 Jan

TheSunIsStillShining · 08/01/2021 12:56

It's reassuring that only some places are operating as almost normal. I was just unlucky to happen to go through those and they are not the average :)

Yummyoldbag · 08/01/2021 13:42

Thanks all, reassuring on the whole. We need this to work really well when we start coming out of lockdown as the virus will still have a high transmission, especially as Givt seem to think February/March will be ok despite most of the population not being vaccinated. Those who have been may still transmit the virus, and their protection will be dipping.

oneglassandpuzzled · 08/01/2021 15:46

We don’t know that the vaccinated will have dropping immunity by then.

MRex · 08/01/2021 15:53

The Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford Astrazeneca vaccines both create the same type of antibodies against the spike. If the Oxford trial shows no significant waning after 12 weeks, then I can't think of a logical reason why the same antibodies created by Pfizer would wane in that timeframe. Does anyone with better scientific understanding than me know what the theory is there?

JanuaryChill · 08/01/2021 16:05

Moderna now approved, BBC headlines.

boys3 · 08/01/2021 16:07

68053 cases

1325 deaths Sad

wintertravel1980 · 08/01/2021 16:11

Testing is massively up, though. 619,941 tests processed yesterday vs the latest 7 day average of 425,064.

TheSunIsStillShining · 08/01/2021 16:11

and by specimen date:
04-01-2021 72,484

Hospitalizations are sky high as well