Daily stats, numbers, data thread 02 Jan

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots [[imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Clinical trial results show that tocilizumab and sarilumab could reduce risk of death for critically ill patients and time spent in ICU by 10 days.

www.bbc.com/news/amp/health-55574662

mobile.twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1347214335253368834

CoffeeandCroissant

Those graphics are horrifying, they need to be shared far and wide.

Someone said that 9,000 of yesterday's cases were catch up from.Scotland (and quoted a Twitter feed, but I have to admit I playground mind boggling numbers of graphs when I looked.) So the down the sofa has already happened? although I am probably clutching at straws

thesun glad to hear of another teen who only engages after 11pm. Mine is lovely then. I'd just rather he was lovely at 8pm .

Healthcare tab now has updated vaccine data:
People vaccinated
First dose total
1,296,432
Total number of people who have received the first dose of COVID-19 vaccine, up to Sunday, 3 January 2021.
Click for additional details.
Second dose total
21,313

I’m not sure I see any obvious backlog being reported yesterday? Here is the breakdown of cases reported by nation (by reporting date, not specimen date) and it doesn’t look like it?

but people on the vaccine arm still tested positive

This is pretty disastrous for people keen on limiting the spread, if it didn't reduce transmission, as now the vaccinated people who previously would've been shielding, would've been low risk for catching the virus and if they did they would likely have been symptomatic.

If the virus makes them asymptomatic, and more likely to be out and about (which it should, people need to be out, isolation kills!) then we now have a new group of susceptible people who are likely to spread - the young age groups will now have likely 20-30% at least immunity in the herd, this group will have almost none and no symptoms to keep them in when infectious either.

This is going to make R reduction even harder - even as obviously deaths are reduced, but I don't know what the solution might be.

R4 science prog 430-5pm today, devoted to discussion of vaccines, very good.

Can someone who knows more about it explain this to me:

This document assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/950424/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w1_FINAL.PDF

says about England:

"No significant excess all-cause mortality was observed in week 52 overall or by age group. and subnationally. Significant excess all-cause mortality was observed subnationally in London."

But ONS report says about England and Wales;
"In Week 52, the number of deaths registered was 44.8% above the five-year average (3,566 deaths higher) but this increase should be treated with caution; the five-year average was particularly low in Week 52 as the years 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019, all contained two bank holidays, whereas Week 52 of 2020 only contained one bank holiday so would likely have more deaths registered."

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending25december2020

Even allowing for the caveats about 2 bank holidays, and that one of the two reports includes Wales, I'm having a hard time seeing how the two statements about week 52 are consistent with each other. What have I missed? (something very obvious, I'll be bound)

Looking at today’s release for cases in England. Cases added in London still disproportionate to the population but increasingly less so, South East and East almost now in line, but North West numbers really starting to increase.

Looks like some of the Liverpool city region councils are seeing some quite dramatic seven day increases.

@ceeveebee sorry I thought I read something on here about case number catch up yesterday, but I can't find it again. I thought the poster quoted @RP131 on Twitter as saying it, but when I looked I couldn't see that info. I might have been hallucinating?

Aixenprovence

PHE and ONS use different definitions of “normal”/“baseline” deaths.

ONS compares the number of weekly deaths to the five-year average. In part, this number is artificially low since 4 years out of 5 included 2 bank holidays while 2020 only contained one.

PHE sets the “normal level” within two standard deviations of the baseline (the five year average used by ONS). Under this definition which will produce a higher number, nearly all the regions (with the exception of London) report no significant excess deaths.

The table of daily cases in each council is updated with today's data release on the www.covidmessenger.com homepage. Frankly, it is very grim reading.

Apologies I am not actively on the chat at the moment. Homeschooling this week has utterly knocked the stuffing out of me. Hopefully next week will be easier.

Two standard deviations is a fair bit, and it's because you do often get that, deaths do come in clumps - heat waves, virus outbreaks etc. so whilst there are lots of extra deaths, it's not enough to say this is really an extraordinary excess of deaths. We will be significant in the next few weeks though I'm sure.

However also remember that more people do die this time of year, so 1000 covid deaths is less of an uptick now than in the summer - especially with flu disappearing as a cause of death as it thankfully has now.

@littleowl1 today’s data released not much more than an hour ago and already you’ve updated your website with your easily accessible table. You have no need to apologise for anything.

Best wishes for the home schooling. Hope you can enjoy a well deserved at some point.

Thanks wintertravel - so helpful!

Though it still seems hard to reconcile the two figures - maybe a 'standardised' (taking into account the bank holiday issue) ONS figure would be about 37% above the 5 year average (my guesswork). Can that really be less than 2 sds away from the average as per the PHE?

(Or is it the difference between including Wales, and not)

Ah, just seen sir fredfred's post! - interesting that 44% would not be such a huge deviation from the norm. Maybe winter weeks are particularly volatile? I agree that the 1000 figure is perhaps not so huge an increase for the winter as it was in April - and of course it is reported not day of death, but that may not make so much difference.

The other thing I noticed on the dashboard was that the increase in positive tests was 'only' about 5 percentage points higher than the increase in tests - so that would suggest an increase in positivity but not as sharp a one as we've seen previously. (Though i realise the two 7 day figures on the headline dashboard are not comparable - different dates, for one thing!)

littleowl1

It is grim reading.

Last week (rolling 7 days) 82 councils with rates under 200 per 100k, this week 9.
35 councils now with rates over 1000 per 100k.
We still have 5 councils with rates falling which is the same as yesterday, haven't checked if they are the same 5.

Death rates this week have been truly awful, is there any hope they will go down soon? I’m assuming we are not yet seeing the effect of Christmas mixing in the death rates.

Some of that will be reporting lag but I'll be amazed if we get through this without seeing worse - once the hospitals are full the IFR will rocket.

In the flue report what is the reason people not calling 111 with this increase?

I thought this was an interesting article re lies, damned lies and statistics and the mismanagement/representation (wilful or just incompetent..) of such

schoolsweek.co.uk/dfe-removes-highly-misleading-covid-testing-guidance/

Snowman - definitely too soon for deaths from Christmas mixing

On care homes NI have reported 9644 residents (over 60%) vaccinated and all care homes without an active outbreak have been visited by vaccinators, so I’m cautiously optimistic that their overall figures will be good A few nights ago the BBC NI correspondent said their over 80s confirmed cases figures were down so that sounds promising.

Does anyone know if/where they report cases by age? I would be interested to see if the over 80 rate is falling in England/Wales/Scotland as well.

@HibernatingTill2030

Does anyone know if/where they report cases by age? I would be interested to see if the over 80 rate is falling in England/Wales/Scotland as well.

Rp131 on twitter has breakdowns by age