Daily stats, numbers, data thread 02 Jan

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots [[imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

I was hoping someone here might offer one! I will look though.

@ATieLikeRichardGere

I've been "saving the world" with my kid (15)* a few times this last weeks and one point he made is that there is so much info that a fraction of his generation is disengaging from factual conversations and is moving more into meme territory. These kids are really stupid (his words).
Another fraction who are interested, but can't be arsed to do their research and are heavily reliant on whoever they follow. These are mostly in the US (his words). And there is only a tiny fraction who think for themselves and do the legwork. But because they have limited knowledge of the world they are ,generally, not the ones influencing fraction 2. And usually end up being very depressed at the state of things.

*doesn't want to go to bed so engages after 11pm and is really keen to talk about anything :) parent's of teens probably know what I'm talking about

So far several rebuttals I see are against the author Peter Doshi who is accused of having a bit of an anti vaccine stance. I don’t have enough information to assess that accusation. The main rebuttal argument of the content is that there are plenty of illnesses with similar symptoms to COVID-19 and PCR tests are accurate so there’s no reason that any of the unconfirmed symptomatic cases would be COVID-19. Still, I’m not sure what the trial protocol was to know if people in both trial arms were tested in equal measure, which I think is the problem. I doubt the FDA or EMA or MHRA could overlook this issue but I’d like to see a proper rebuttal.

@ATieLikeRichardGere
Was it not a blind trial though? So if someone developed symptoms they would have been equally likely to be tested as the participants and scientists didn’t know if they had been vaccinated with the vaccine or the placebo?

ATieLikeRichardGere Thanks for the link although I have to confess t not understanding a lot of it.

Seems the main point as far as efficacy is concerned is the suggestion that the PCR tests that gave a negative result could not be relied on. The data extrapolated from that then produces a figure based on all those negative results actually being positive which seems just as unlikely a scenario.

Whatever the case, as Israel is vaccinating its citizens at a fast pace we should very soon see whether their infection/death rates begin to subside.

Interesting link, thanks. My main anxiety (not based on anything objective), apart from the overwhelmed nhs, is that we are putting so many resources into a vaccine, and what if it doesn't have that much effect even with a decent uptake?

Just reading an article that popped up on my phone (it was the daily mail so to be taken with a pinch of salt). It was saying over 80's weren't turning up to their Pfizer vaccine appt as they wanted the British one 🙈

My 82-year-old parent with a compromised immune system, ECV, will already be in the car, desperate to get to her 3.45pm second jab appointment, ten minutes' drive away.

She and her friends were so relieved to be getting the second Pfizer jab this week, as scheduled.

one that is good!

This was in one area I think, so probably not representative. Without looking at the details, I suspect it was an area with a very strong Leave vote in 2016.

Although I was a bit surprised, as I thought most would just take what was offered.

@lurker101 yes it was blind, so yes you are right...but I think I would still need to know more about the protocol - info which probably is out there - in case there is some other factor that could cause a difference between the two groups, such as accidental unblinding (could be given the control was saline), what symptoms would trigger a test, who decides to trigger a test etc. in case some other difference were to emerge as a consequence between the groups. The study should be designed to prevent this and I’m sure it was. I just don’t actually know how. Plus the potential for negative PCR tests and any factor that might influence that. I just want to see someone offer a really clear rebuttal that I can repeat!

@Wakeupin2022

one that is good!

This was in one area I think, so probably not representative. Without looking at the details, I suspect it was an area with a very strong Leave vote in 2016.

Although I was a bit surprised, as I thought most would just take what was offered.

I think you're right. This sounds like DM stirring.

We've had over 2000 ppl locally eligible for the first round of vaccines and apparently about 50 don't appear to want it - want to wait and see how it goes, not decided yet, or want the Oxford vaccine (perhaps worried about potential mixing the two types for the two doses? )

[quote lurker101]@ATieLikeRichardGere
Was it not a blind trial though? So if someone developed symptoms they would have been equally likely to be tested as the participants and scientists didn’t know if they had been vaccinated with the vaccine or the placebo?[/quote]
It was theoretically blind but in practice it was not as the controls were given saline thus making it easy to tell from reported side effects who had the vaccine and who didn't.

In England, nearly 1 in 4 people aged 80 and over have now received at least one vaccine dose.

654,810 people above the age of 80 have received at least one dose of the vaccine in England. This is 23.08% of all 80 and above.
mobile.twitter.com/ganeshran/status/1347148429122822145

I assume that's community and doesn't include care homes, as they were a separate category and seem to have had very low numbers of vaccines so far - 10% of care home residents and 14% of care home staff.

Good figures @CoffeeandCroissant and hopefully there will be similar figures for the other nations.

On care homes NI have reported 9644 residents (over 60%) vaccinated and all care homes without an active outbreak have been visited by vaccinators, so I’m cautiously optimistic that their overall figures will be good
(Dept. of Health Dashboard being updated so can’t share link)

The Pfizer trial has now been published in the New England Journal of Medicine (www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577)
but it did not measure transmission, nor does having the vaccine mean you won't get COVID, the risk is greatly reduced but people on the vaccine arm still tested positive

the suggestion that the PCR tests that gave a negative result could not be relied on
Well sure, but then we rely on nothing. His article didn't suggest those people had negative PCR tests though, if they did then I'd ignore it all as blocks.

Vaccine update at 5pm, that'll be interesting, I hope they've found a way to speed up the quality checks all the supplies are running. Bloody long way to our mass vaccination site, I'm still hopeful it'll get to all GP surgeries soon.

Sorry got my link now for the NI care home vaccination stats

www.health-ni.gov.uk/news/new-phase-covid-19-vaccination-programme-game-changer

@Quarantino

I assume that's community and doesn't include care homes, as they were a separate category and seem to have had very low numbers of vaccines so far - 10% of care home residents and 14% of care home staff.

It's over 50% of care home residents (first dose) in Scotland, seems unlikely that England would be so far behind given that residents and staff are both priority category 1. Are you sure those are current figures?

Quoted here: Boris Johnson told parliament on Wednesday he wanted the programme to be accelerated and that 10% of care home residents and 14% of care home staff had so far received the vaccine.
www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/07/covid-kills-half-of-sussex-care-homes-residents-over-christmas

I agree it's surprising

Could I ask if anyone knows what kind of ongoing research is being done with the people in the vaccine trials? For example are they looking at those who contracted covid after vaccination to determine if there is any common factor?

Data vis using PHE weekly surveillance report data to compare Covid pressures on NHS with bad flu seasons: mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1347200811303055364

52k cases
1162 deaths

Either a massive decrease in cases or a spreadsheet missing down the back of a sofa again....