Daily stats, numbers, data thread 02 Jan

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots [[imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

When we reopened in June/July, we were down to 500 cases a day nationally
When Manchester was put under restrictions at the end of July, rates were between 10 and 60 per 100,000 depending on the borough
Oh to be back there!

I’d like to think it’s obvious that they (the government) can’t drag their heels when they need to act - but it’s been proved very much otherwise hasn’t it? They’re still arguing against measures - if lockdown doesn’t work this time we haven’t really got anything else have we? (Vaccines aside but that takes much longer than I would guess anyone is really prepared to sit this out for)

the last week in December is always terrible for reporting of deaths

Is it? It's normally very, very good for deaths (significantly less, people hang on for christmas and succumb after there's a corresponding poor week in early Jan in actual date of death) but I didn't know there was a particular significantly extra lag beyond into the first working days of the new year.

Does anyone know why we can only get 7 day positivity rates with a 5 day lag? I know we wouldn't have the total number of 4 Jan specimen date tests back yet, but presumably there could be a provisional figure - (number of positive results) divided by (number of tests which generated that number of positive results). Which would then have to be updated for the next few days until the data was more or less complete.

Is there some reason why that would be totally misleading?

@Aixenprovence - I don't know if this is still the case and so may be talking crap alert... But some tests are inconclusive and at back in September labs were being asked to run them twice if the results were uncertain due to false negative fears (www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/08/labs-told-run-patients-covid-19-tests-twice-amid-concerns-false/). So it could end up missing quite a lot of negative and inconclusive results (but not positive), which would influence positivity percentage.

Sorry, that should say due to false positive fears!!!!

@Aixen I think if you use case rates from less than 5 days ago to calculate the rate your charts end up showing a false impression of falling rates (because of the last few days being incomplete).

Thanks all! yes, the data will be incomplete but does that matter, if what you're calculating is a percentage - i.e. positive results for that specimen date as a percentage of all tests processed so far for the same specimen date?

But yes it may be too complicated to calculate but I couldn't quite see why - and when things are so fast moving 1 Jan seems a long time ago!
Yes I think at one point they were retesting positive results - not sure if they still are, or not.

When are we due an R update? It seems like the one on the dashboard from Dec 23rd is so far out of date it’s meaningless

@Aixen Case numbers relate to the date the sample was taken on. Most samples are tested a day or two later. So there's a lag in the number is cases reported each day, with the last few days being incomplete. This isn't the same with the number of tests conducted - they are reported in full every day. So you can't calculate an accurate positivity rate on a daily basis, nor for the last few days (which have only some of the specimens analysed but the number of tests is fully known)

Thanks firefliess! I think aiui the 7 day positivity rate is slightly rough and ready as you will never be able to match the numerator and denominator exactly, but by taking a 7 days average you'll make it roughly correct and certainly show the rough trends?.

In any case perhaps I shouldn't be so fixated on the positivity rate as the meaning of it will also change over time, depending on the demographic tested. Perhaps not so much over the short term but certainly if more asymptomatic people are currently getting tested because of heightened levels of concern, the positivity rate will fall irrespective of 'genuine' prevalence trends. For that we need the ONS and their sampling!

@PatriciaHolm

Just a note on today's data...Scotland haven't provided any deaths data for 4 days, and today is normally a catch up for PHE as well, so today's death data is likely to be very bad - could easily be 1000+. BUT that needs to be looked at by day of death of course, though the news sites will probably overlook that....

Looks like the backlog was reported today.

Although apparently pointing out the differences in figures between date of report and actual date of death is trying to make out things aren't that bad 😒

Yes, I've been jumped on for that. Either the data matters or it doesn't! On one hand I'm still surprised there are intelligent people out there who still don't know it's date reported, and on the other the media do seem to go out of their way to make it seem like this is the no. of people who died of covid today.

As soon as I heard the number today, I did think Scotland must have caught up!

Monday was a holiday up there.

Sadly I think we have a few shocking days ahead of us and the report on BBC news was sobering tonight.

That amount 30m of a single dose would be game changing. We would have enough for everyone including kids. But that might require them managing who gets which so kids get an approved one

afaik in the UK it is not approved for u18. So kids won't be getting it.
In some EU countries it's 16. I don't know if that is country specific (HU) or EU wide though.

@TheSunIsStillShining do you think though that the lowest age for approval of 18 might be changed? Maybe following further research?

The Pfizer vaccine is licensed for over 16s and the UK government plan is to roll down to all over 16s. Oxford is over 18s at present, but I think they're running trials on under 18s so maybe will have results from them by the time they've finished the over 16s. Though I do think they'll be few under 16s who've not yet caught it naturally by then.

@sirfredfredgeorge

the last week in December is always terrible for reporting of deaths

Is it? It's normally very, very good for deaths (significantly less, people hang on for christmas and succumb after there's a corresponding poor week in early Jan in actual date of death) but I didn't know there was a particular significantly extra lag beyond into the first working days of the new year.

That's not what happens - the ONS data is by report date. If you look at the data there's always a dip in deaths in the weeks of the summer bank holidays too.

Has this been shared before? Was wondering if anyone would like to offer their opinion on some of the issues outlined blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/01/04/peter-doshi-pfizer-and-modernas-95-effective-vaccines-we-need-more-details-and-the-raw-data/

In general I believe that once data becomes public domain it loses it's leveraging power to some extent and transparency is the best thing we can have.
The problem with my stance is that everyone and their dog will use that data to underpin whatever their agenda and the amount of shit based on "facts" -marginal/mis representation of data will be huge.
So if someone has an idea of how to prevent that than I'm all for raw data.
In this case, by the nature of it, I do think raw data should be public. Together with general public qa sessions a few days/weeks to actual scientists.

Also, this is a very interesting discussion on the spread of the new variant looking at whether we see the same thing happening in Denmark and the UK with a interesting observation of data from
SE England which I’m scratching my head at mobile.twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1346966678043840517

@TheSunIsStillShining

That’s interesting. I agree with your points. I think he does raise questions I would really like to know the answers to, although I don’t feel worried about them.

@ATieLikeRichardGere - that doesn't look good. I'd like to read a rebuttal if anyone finds one.

Depressing article in the HSJ today about bed capacity in London, even in the best case scenario they are expecting to be thousands of beds short in 2 weeks

www.hsj.co.uk/acute-care/exclusive-london-will-be-overwhelmed-by-covid-in-a-fortnight-says-leaked-nhs-england-briefing/7029264.article