Daily stats, numbers, data thread 02 Jan

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots [[imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

boys3

Thank you so much for looking into the positivity rates.

For anyone trying to get a feel for what this “up to 70% increased transmissibility” means in practice, go to pg 11 of this thread and look for the multicoloured charts from boys3.

In almost every region, you can see the percentage of people in the community who were being tested who actually came back positive.

It was trundling along, slowly increasing in most areas then nov lockdown came and it even began to reduce.

Through December it trundled along I most places.

Then bam. Look at the or positive figures for 4th January. Pretty much everywhere has leapt up. Not just a bit, like in nov/dec.

This is something different.

@everythingthelighttouches
It's also if you look at the heatmaps demographically different.
The earlier outbreaks, even when schools were open, were relatively little /100k in under 15s. The December outbreaks are often led by the 10-14s and the 5-9s badly effected (and even 0-4).

The December outbreaks are often led by the 10-14s and the 5-9s badly effected (and even 0-4)

Having high incidence of cases, that's different to badly effected.

It also may be positive news that can explain the lower death rates than would have been implied by the earlier case rates. Still worried for next couple of days now everyone should be working and catching up on holiday backlogs though.

Someone, somewhere (I know, horribly unhelpful), mentioned to DH, that every four years, Xmas and New Year falling on weekends, making them extra long, causes huge spikes in hospital admissions in the subsequent two weeks. Add to that cycle the further burden of Covid, and we find ourselves in the position we are in.

Sorry I don't know if this has been discussed already...

I'm concerned that there is an actual tsunami of cases requiring hospitalisation coming up and wondering if I am missing something?

We have roughly 26k in hospital now and the NHS is creaking at the seams.

We also have c. 50k cases per day, so c. 350k in the past week.

I believe experience shows that we should expect 10-15% of these to require hospitalisation in 7-10 days???

So that would be 35k - 50k people needing hospitalisation very, very soon?

On top of an already shitty situation?

If more of the cases are younger that might make admissions less dreadful.

@BigWoollyJumpers

Someone, somewhere (I know, horribly unhelpful), mentioned to DH, that every four years, Xmas and New Year falling on weekends, making them extra long, causes huge spikes in hospital admissions in the subsequent two weeks. Add to that cycle the further burden of Covid, and we find ourselves in the position we are in.

I'm not following this... do you mean if Christmas day is on a Fri, sat, sun or mon, as they would all cause a 3-day weekend (and same for NYD)? That wouldn't be every 4 years?

@peridito - sorry, I sometimes get carried away replying to a specific person and forget others are reading who obviously won't have read the reports we're supposedly summarising. I'll try to make more effort to explain what something is if I'm linking a report. (Out of context, I wouldn't have immediately known the acronym either!) I think it's better for everyone to ask for clarification if a post is missing something, so thank you.

@umpteennamechanges - there will be some, hopefully not quite that many due to younger cases, but enough for a crisis. As well as the increase in younger ages there have also been a lot of 90+ in many of the areas I looked at, who sadly may add to death rates rather than hospitalisation figures.

I’ve read that the average hospital stay with covid is 8 days though that was in May and it may have improved with the advances in treatment, or not. So the hope is that the NHS may yet cope as a lot of people currently in would also expect to be discharged over that period as well, and if overwhelm doesn’t happen in all areas at once then capacity or patients can be transferred between areas. But it clearly it isn’t a good situation.

[quote oneglassandpuzzled]If more of the cases are younger that might make admissions less dreadful.

Thanks, ceeveebee. I suppose I’m clinging to hope. My daughter is fourth-year medical student, warned she may be pulled out of placements to work on Covid. Her BF is F1 in a London ICU, now treating patients at ratio of 1:4 instead of 1:1. Not good.

@ATieLikeRichardGere

I’ve read that the average hospital stay with covid is 8 days though that was in May and it may have improved with the advances in treatment, or not. So the hope is that the NHS may yet cope as a lot of people currently in would also expect to be discharged over that period as well, and if overwhelm doesn’t happen in all areas at once then capacity or patients can be transferred between areas. But it clearly it isn’t a good situation.

I think the reverse may be true in that more people survive but they spend longer in hospital. This is behind a paywall but Length of Covid hospital stays exceed first wave average as NHS capacity nears brink Quote from Professor Paul Hunter of UEA "“The time spent in hospital has increased because people are less likely to die from the infection now than in the Spring,” Prof Hunter said. “On average a patient who dies from Covid will need a bed for fewer days than those who are eventually discharged.”

I'm thinking we'll end up having even stricter measures because things are going to get much worse in hospitals. I wondered whether Boris was hinting at that yesterday when he said the worse was yet to come. Did he just mean deaths or for every single one of us?

I understand in London they currently anticipate week of 11th to be peak for hospitals ( the combination of patients admitted earlier and still in plus new admissions).

Obviously the rest of the country will be different.

@MRex do you know the plan of the care home resident declines after their POA approves? I can only speak for the care home where I work and the one where my relative lives. In both cases no force would be used, I hope it wouldn't in any home, in these two homes it isn't usually an issue as staff have very good relationships with residents and would generally be able to calm then down and help with their fears. If it couldn't be done they would arrange another appointment and try again, things can be very different day to day particularly with dementia patients.

In both homes consents for vaccination were sorted out weeks ago. I can't say what the response was in relatives home but I was asked to sign it when I visited over a month ago and was told the consent forms were being emailed posted that day. In the home where I work they were done earlier than that and are all signed, everyone gave consent. Our residents are all keen to get the vaccinations and were disappointed that they didn't get it before Christmas so I don't think there will be any issues for us.

Just a note on today's data...Scotland haven't provided any deaths data for 4 days, and today is normally a catch up for PHE as well, so today's death data is likely to be very bad - could easily be 1000+. BUT that needs to be looked at by day of death of course, though the news sites will probably overlook that....

Not entirely data but in Feb a member of my staff told us she's lost taste and smell before it was a thing. Felt fine and came in every day. She had an antibody test in the hols and 9 months later had antibodies. Makes wonder just how many asymptomatic ir very mild cases there are and what antibody testing would tell us if more widely available. My son had his routine test at work (he's a nurse) and was surprised that it was positive. He did get symptoms but days later so if he hadn't had the test he would have done 2 x 12 hr shifts before he suspected anything.

@littlestpogo

I understand in London they currently anticipate week of 11th to be peak for hospitals ( the combination of patients admitted earlier and still in plus new admissions).

Obviously the rest of the country will be different.

I don't see how that could possibly be the case when cases are still rising.

I don't see how that could possibly be the case when cases are still rising.

According to Zoe, the rate of transmission in London has flattened over past few days and may now be going down very, very slowly (today’s estimate is lower than the number for yesterday).

Zoe predictions of national and regional trends have been pretty accurate since summer. Local (borough level) figures are, on the other hand, not very reliable.

@PatriciaHolm

Just a note on today's data...Scotland haven't provided any deaths data for 4 days, and today is normally a catch up for PHE as well, so today's death data is likely to be very bad - could easily be 1000+. BUT that needs to be looked at by day of death of course, though the news sites will probably overlook that....

I can't believe that they still don't say x deaths REPORTED in last 24 hours, it wouldn't be hard.

MRex just thought, the other issue with giving consent when you have POA is they still need to consider if the resident/patient has capacity to make that decision at that time. So I have POA but if my aunt decides she wants chocolate cake for breakfast and the carers are happy she understands that a boiled egg and toast would be a better choice they can let her have chocolate cake (they'd probably be delighted as she is so underweight.) On the other hand if she eats the cake and decides she's going out shopping they wouldn't let her go as she wouldn't know where the shops are and if she found them she wouldn't know how to get back and if someone tried to help her she wouldn't know where she lives, she thinks she lives with her mum, my gran who died over 40 years ago. The whole issue of mental capacity and consent is quite complicated and it isn't black and white i.e. you can't make any decisions for yourself or you have to be capable of making all decisions.

That all sounds a bit convoluted so I hope you understand what I mean.

@wintertravel1980

I don't see how that could possibly be the case when cases are still rising.

According to Zoe, the rate of transmission in London has flattened over past few days and may now be going down very, very slowly (today’s estimate is lower than the number for yesterday).

Zoe predictions of national and regional trends have been pretty accurate since summer. Local (borough level) figures are, on the other hand, not very reliable.

Even with flat admissions the number of inpatients would continue to rise for some time though.

with regards to antibodies: a relative and her family (parents & 2 older children) were all tested positive (pcr) but only one of them had antibodies when tested after a couple of months post illness.

@PatriciaHolm

Just a note on today's data...Scotland haven't provided any deaths data for 4 days, and today is normally a catch up for PHE as well, so today's death data is likely to be very bad - could easily be 1000+. BUT that needs to be looked at by day of death of course, though the news sites will probably overlook that....

Its "only" 830 which if it is a catch up day isn't too awful. But as you say, the actual dates of death won't be considered.

60916 cases though

Although RP131 has around 9k of those cases as catch-ups from Scotland.