Daily stats, numbers, data thread 02 Jan

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots [[imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

I usually lurk here rather than posting but just wanted to say that my kids' school gives the flu vaccine in December, so they presumably won't be counted in MRex's figures.

@Quarantino and @everythingthelighttouches - it's the figures from the latest the surveillance report from December; it's possible that they report less frequently so child vaccinations in December haven't yet been included. Over 65s you'd expect that's about it now, so 1 in 5 were not vaccinated.

@BigWoollyJumpers - I don't think they'll strap her down to get the vaccine; restraints have to be based on risk and it's hard to support that for a vaccine. Do you think her objection may vary if they say a minimum and try to keep her calm so she'll have it, or actively ask for her consent? PHE has presumably issued guidance. @ancientgran - do you know the plan of the care home resident declines after their POA approves?

We also had the flu jab this year (privately) not something we normally do, but got it due to the increased campaign this year to get more people vaccinated.

Does anyone know when vaccinations carried out numbers are due to be updated?
The BBC had an interesting article this morning about vaccinations in NI and they are already claiming that a drop in positivity amongst the over-80s is due to the vaccinations taking effect. I’m inclined to think it’s a bit of overzealous reporting but would like to follow the data but can’t seem to find the data they’re referring to... and vaccinations on gov website only go up to 30 Dec. I think NI would be a good area to look at to see what impact vaccinations are having on reducing cases/hospitalisations - small enough population to reach a high percentage vaccinated quite quickly whilst still being a decent sample size 80,000 over 80s. The most recent statistic I can get on care home beds is from 2018 (RQIA) - but suggests there were 16007 beds, so 56% residents vaccinated by 30th December, so hopefully more now that Oxford-AZ is being rolled out.

@mayonegg It depends on a few things like where you are etc. but I think it’s fair to say that the likelihood that your own children got infected today is actually quite low, even though obviously the overall situation is not good.

I read somewhere that 1 in 5 people over 80 who contract covid would need hospital treatment. Vaccinating that group could really make a pretty significant impact on hospitalisations, if that's true.

@mayonegg

Hope it's OK to butt in here and ask this, I hoped since you people on this thread are good with stats and risk etc, what is the likelihood that the children who went in to primary schools across the country today will have been infected by the new strain? I'm really struggling with the anxiety of it, I wish I'd just kept them off despite the risk of being fined.

What I would do:

• look up the rate/100k for your local neck of the woods. then go to www.covidmessenger.com/ to get a feel of where your council is in the ranking.

Even at this point it is going to be highly speculative, but it gives you context.

Eg: if you are in Barking/London, where were 1,421 cases/100k in the past 7 days than you might want to try to minimize contact between DC and others just in case more so than if you are Torridge with 105 cases/100k pop in the last 7 days.

Nobody can give you a definitive answer as it depends on school, how others in the class behaved, how their families behaved,....
Me, personally, would not worry. That doesn't solve anything. I would treat my child as if s/he was a carrier and try to minimize any contact.

Current position is that vaccination numbers are going to be published weekly on Thursdays lurker. Whether that will change now I don't know.

After much discussion about teacher infection rates and whether the ONS survey was fair, ethical or accurate, this was published a few hours ago, tucked away in specialist educational media

www.tes.com/news/exclusive-teacher-covid-rates-333-above-average

The fact that only 3 councils replied does show there has not been a real push on gathering data form authorities possibly (and I'd say that is probably true for all occupations)

Lurker here thanking you all for these threads.

I'm not a data analysis person myself so don't have anything much to add, but just an anecdotal comment on school flu vaccination figures.

I have 3 dc in the vaccination groups and I imagine some of low uptake is simply due to parents not engaging with the administration rather than not wanting the vaccine.

The school sends emails and the parent has to follow the link to complete an online form. Without this the child will be excluded.

I know from dc school that initial uptake is always low and they have to keep reminding people. This sort of admin is also always harder for parents who don't have English as a first language.

@Piggywaspushed - odd that the local authorities haven't confirmed the data in that article, I wonder if there has been a mistake in calculating e.g. each missed week as a separate case, can be easily done. The SIS testing was done in NW only, but did not find a difference in rate of infection for teachers. I didn't bother posting it, because by the time it was issued the new variant looked to be making the findings unreliable (in my opinion), but it covers the historical picture:
www.gov.uk/government/publications/tfc-children-and-transmission-update-paper-17-december-2020

@Piggywaspushed - just rereading what you wrote, this was data separately requested from 28 councils by the union NASUWT, the local authority submission to DforE is done separately and has some non-submission / late submission, but is usually 80-90% and was due to expand to include workforce. (explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak)

Sorry, I mean it includes workforce but the public reporting was due to expand to include workforce too.

@MRex

From listening to Boris, it strikes me that they're stating vaccines for various groups, but how on earth are enough consents going to be gathered in care homes? Isn't that normally a major issue for flu vaccines? Is everyone going to profess surprise and concern in a few weeks that 100% don't want the vaccine?

Latest surveillance report has these stats (obviously none of the kids nor pregnant will be vaccinated):
Flu vaccine uptake is higher in all groups compared to this time last year. Provisional data suggests uptake rates are:
79.8% in over 65 year olds
50.1% in under 65 years in a clinical risk group
42.4% in pregnant women
21.4% in those aged 50 to 64 who are not in a clinical risk group (this group became eligible on the 1 December 2020)
53.3% in 2 year olds
55.7% in 3 year olds
47.5% in school age children (as of 30 November)
70.6% in healthcare workers (as of 30 November)

Can't generalise but I know of two family members whose POAs have consented in anticipation of the vaccination being available.

MRex sorry* what is SIS ?

*I don't like to clog up this thread with questions ,I'm struggling not to give up on my efforts to access a fact based discussion because I'm not as well informed and lack the skills that most of you have .

I do miss the poster who has now left as her posts were helpful and so much more accessible for struggling thickos .

It just seems astonishing to me MRex that they weren't gathering this sort of data all along (for any job role) and had to wait until people began to raise legal challenges/ question before they said 'oh. we'll start having a look'.

Those SIS findings is quite flawed as well. It harks back to the much disputed ONS figures and then goes on to admit their infection rates are only calculated based on staff in school at the time (for admittedly obvious reasons) so does not include those who were ill or SI!

@peridito

MRex sorry* what is SIS ?

*I don't like to clog up this thread with questions ,I'm struggling not to give up on my efforts to access a fact based discussion because I'm not as well informed and lack the skills that most of you have .

I do miss the poster who has now left as her posts were helpful and so much more accessible for struggling thickos .

I assume Schools Infection Survey as per the document linked in the post.

@peridito - SIS is a large programme of testing in schools in NW. The results are in the report I linked. It was a follow-up up to the ONS survey with independent testing.

@Piggywaspushed - I think from the text that it was collected before, but not publicly reported. It's of course possible it was less complete by local authorities than the other data and would have been useful to push for completion.

Thank you Quarantino and MRex .

Sorry ,I didn't realise that opening the link would have obviated the need to ask the question .I will try harder .

definitely MRex, the desire NOT to gather methodically data about occupational risk (for any occupation) does concern me.

@peridito

Thank you Quarantino and MRex .

Sorry ,I didn't realise that opening the link would have obviated the need to ask the question .I will try harder .

Don't apologise! It's not always obvious!

@peridito. Don’t feel daft for asking, there are likely to be many lurkers who are pleased you did!

Thanks yummy .

That encourages me to carry on with this thread ,even if the small increments in my understanding serve mainly to underline how limited that understanding is!

mrex I don't think they will tie her down! It IS a big worry though with oldies. She takes the annual flu vaccine, as she always has, so a learned behaviour if you like. She doesn't have dementia, but is very old, and does get confused. So she sees/hears about allergies, and immediately says she has allergies to antibiotics, which she has, but only stomach related, and antibiotics aren't vaccines. But when she gets something in her head it is very difficult to shift it with reason, and I suspect many elderlies are the same. Her other line is that she would rather someone younger had it, and isn't she being wonderful by giving hers away, again the reasoning behind that not being the best course of action just doesn't compute. It's a very tricky line to tread.

Really helpful analysis. Vaccinating the first 4 priority groups should cut deaths by 85% or so. And hospital admissions by 60% or so. But ICU use by much less as the population in ICU are typically younger.
mobile.twitter.com/Samfr/status/1346420791253020672