Daily stats, numbers, data thread 02 Jan

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots [[imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

I guess we need to hold our nerve and things should start to improve with the lockdown. Bumpy week ahead.

Vaccines number hasn't been updated in over a week. Wish they'd put this on as a bit of (hopefully) good news?!

I expected the deaths to be quite a big higher. Signs the vaccine is having an effect on mortality? Maybe too optimistic.

*bit not big 🤦‍♀️

I don't think the vaccine will have had any effects on death rate yet, certainly not in significant enough numbers.
I just hope it doesn't meant there's a backlog somewhere in the system.

@ancientgran

I guess we need to hold our nerve and things should start to improve with the lockdown. Bumpy week ahead.

Am I right in thinking that if measures are working you should expect to see that in reflected by the start of a decline in case numbers in about two weeks, given time from catching it to reporting positive tests?

ONS are saying 1 in 50 people had covid 19 in private households in E and W between 27/12 and 2/1. That's mental!

@Witchend

I don't think the vaccine will have had any effects on death rate yet, certainly not in significant enough numbers. I just hope it doesn't meant there's a backlog somewhere in the system.

The BBC news mentioned last night that there’s been a drop in infections in the over 80s but yes, you’re probably right that that hasn’t filtered through to the death rates yet given lag.

ONS are saying 1 in 50 people had covid 19 in private households in E and W between 27/12 and 2/1. That's mental

Maybe that's Boris's claim for Easter, it's not vaccinations that'll mean it's okay, just that there won't be anyone left to infect.

@sirfredfredgeorge

ONS are saying 1 in 50 people had covid 19 in private households in E and W between 27/12 and 2/1. That's mental

Maybe that's Boris's claim for Easter, it's not vaccinations that'll mean it's okay, just that there won't be anyone left to infect.

If the death rate is 0.5% then over 50% of my town in Kent have already had it. Which is rather mind boggling.

If the death rate is 0.5% then over 50% of my town in Kent have already had it. Which is rather mind boggling.

It is you might see reduction based on that alone

@Piggywaspushed

ONS are saying 1 in 50 people had covid 19 in private households in E and W between 27/12 and 2/1. That's mental!

Is this information broken-down anywhere by Region? If it's England and Wales as a whole some areas in the SE must be much higher than 1 in 50.

I see Havering is going down steadily and wonder could there possibly be an element of herd immunity creeping in yet?

London: 1 in 30
North East: 1 in 55
North West: 1 in 40
Yorkshire and Humber: 1 in 55
East Midlands: 1 in 40
West Midlands: 1 in 65
East: 1 in 45
South East: 1 in 45
South West: 1 in 125
mobile.twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1346506706516398080

London 1 in 30 in last week!

@Piggywaspushed

ONS are saying 1 in 50 people had covid 19 in private households in E and W between 27/12 and 2/1. That's mental!

Is that: 1 in 50 people or 1 in 50 people were in a household with at least one covid case?

1 in 50 is 2%, which is still going to be well off herd immunity, but might do some way in slowing the spread.

1 in 50 caught Covid in the last week - ie 2% of people. And 1.3% of people vaccinated over the last 4 weeks They definitely need to speed up the vaccination programme and slow down the spread of the virus, or they'll be few people left to benefit from vaccination by the time it gets to most of us!

@Em777

I expected the deaths to be quite a big higher. Signs the vaccine is having an effect on mortality? Maybe too optimistic.

deaths will reflect the infection rate 3 or 4 weeks ago though.

Am I right in thinking that if measures are working you should expect to see that in reflected by the start of a decline in case numbers in about two weeks, given time from catching it to reporting positive tests? I think it varies. Also now frontline NHS staff and care staff are having tests twice a week then lots like my son will find out they have it well before they have symptoms. I guess that is a big difference to earlier on in the pandemic. Also the changes last week could show some improvement. It all changes so fast.

So I imagine there might be a bit of hope next week but more obvious the week after.

@Witchend It's 2% of people who has Covid themselves (The "private households" bit means that the survey excludes people living in care homes, prisons, etc. So it may actually be slightly more that 2% of the entire population, as institutions are quite prone to outbreaks)

Johnson said that 25% of the over 80s have now been vaccinated. So it’s possible that it is already showing in the lower rate on the over 80s.

Interestingly, the ONS graphs presented by Whitty show that South East and potentially London might have already passed the peak in December.

It will be interesting to see the latest ONS survey when it is published.

Re: deaths - I still think there might be a significant lag in reporting related to PHE (non hospital) numbers.

Thanks CoffeeandCroissant and MarshaBradyo.

So if London's 1 in 30 as a whole, then the East End is must be quite a lot worse. Barking and Dagenham/Redbridge still rising with little sign of flattening.

I'm way down the vaccine priority lists so if I manage to avoid the virus herd immunity may come to my aide first!

The ONS data is here if you want to have a look.
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/adhocs/12722estimatesofcovid19casesto02januaryforenglandregionsofenglandandbycasescompatiblewiththenewvariant

(The one that Lewis Goodall tweet is referencing, I mean)