Daily stats, numbers, data thread 02 Jan

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots [[imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

I have never had the flu jab, but I would have gone in the vaccine trials if I could have. I don't think people will see it in the same way.

Hi @boys3. Yes the data is grim. Of that there is no doubt.

I make a point of publishing the data on the Covid Messenger website verbatim from the government daily data release without my personal view, opinion or interpretation of the data. Not dissimilar to Worldometers. Covid Messenger simply presents the data in an easy to digest format.

But appreciate it is, indeed, grim reading.

Although I can see glimmers of hope in there.

But, it is true that they are not easy to find; they are few and far between, unfortunately.

No data from Boris but am guessing there'll be some kind of presser tomorrow with Whitty and there'll be lots?

Thank you @MRex and @TheSunIsStillShining for the links to the vaccine numbers.

I saw an article earlier today about red tape being reduced for retired healthcare professionals wishing to be involved in vaccinations, so I’m hoping that things keep moving in the right direction and we can keep the vaccination momentum up. I honestly need some bright side news today...

MRex those vaccine uptake numbers are shocking.

Are they from this year? Surely not?

image posting restored. So to follow on from earlier today the P2 positivity tables for the remaining regions.

North East and North West

West Midlands and Yorkshire and Humber which should be the lot now.

@PerditaNitt

Thank you *@MRex and @TheSunIsStillShining* for the links to the vaccine numbers.

I saw an article earlier today about red tape being reduced for retired healthcare professionals wishing to be involved in vaccinations, so I’m hoping that things keep moving in the right direction and we can keep the vaccination momentum up. I honestly need some bright side news today...

I heard a dentist on the radio today saying it took a day to complete the application form & then he was rejected anyway so I hope that is the case, it won't matter how many vaccines there are if there isn't enough people to actually administer them.

Too true, I nearly gave up on the form it was so long and complicated! Awaiting rejection soon!

@schimmelreiter

I have never had the flu jab, but I would have gone in the vaccine trials if I could have. I don't think people will see it in the same way.

I couldn't even get the flu jab offering to pay for it. There was none available as uptake had been much higher than anticipated.

I did for vaccine trial once opened up to the over 60 age group but heard nothing back. My local health authority is also trialing the Janssen trial - still asking for volunteers according to their website but never heard back from them either.

It will be interesting to see the uptake levels for Pfizer and AZ vaccines once that data becomes available.

Should have read ... I did apply for vaccine trial. Sorry, one two many glasses of wine toasting the beginning of the end.

Although I can see glimmers of hope in there.

I agree. I still think that areas impacted by the new strain earlier may be on a flat or a downward trajectory. Let us compare:

Swale - old hotspot (flat to down) -
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Swale

Overall Kent - a mixture of old and new hotspots (flat to marginally up) -
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=utla&areaName=Kent

Glasgow - new hotspot (rapid growth) -
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Glasgow%20City

Even though the new strain is clearly much more transmissible, the numbers seem to indicate that there is a varying degree of susceptibility within the population. It means the spread may start slowing down as the virus runs out of "easy targets" to infect.

the numbers seem to indicate that there is a varying degree of susceptibility within the population

I sort of agree, but I suspect it's just that "herd immunity" is at quite a low level due to the restrictions particularly self selected isolation, so it moves rapidly through the interconnected groups with high outside the household contacts and then slowly with the more remote groups where the rate is slower due to those groups simply having fewer contacts. R is still above 1 in both groups, but some spread it quickly and the stats show very rapid growth, but the slower more isolated groups take longer to spread it to their extra contacts.

In any case it will certainly significantly reduce with the numbers in some of these areas that must be infected as the number susceptible must be reducing quite rapidly.

Just agreeing with something Mrex said earlier “I think any areas that aren't under very tight restrictions when this variant hits are in really big trouble.”

Some of the West Sussex areas have always been in the bottom 5 or so of the ranking - I’ve always thought that it’s because of the elderly taking precautions. They’re now in the top 100 with doubling cases. Very scary.

Torbay has been relatively low throughout, 7 day rate has only gone over 100/100000 today but it does worry me that immunity here must be low and if it takes off it could be a whirlwind. I'm quite relieved about the lockdown really and hope it will take our numbers lower. I'm half in South Hams which was very low but has really started to climb in the last couple of weeks.

@FalseAlarm1

Just agreeing with something Mrex said earlier “I think any areas that aren't under very tight restrictions when this variant hits are in really big trouble.”

Some of the West Sussex areas have always been in the bottom 5 or so of the ranking - I’ve always thought that it’s because of the elderly taking precautions. They’re now in the top 100 with doubling cases. Very scary.

I agree to an extent.

My area has jumped up over 100 places in the last couple of weeks and my MSOA went from green to purple & not far off darkest shade!

BUT I think that lockdown will mean the we won't be hit as had as hard as many areas. Cases should not take long to come down. We were Tier 3 but I think many people were already being super careful.

Thats assuming lockdown works of course!

mrex DM's consent and paperwork at her care home was all done before Xmas in anticipation. Care home manager had looked at her health record for allergies etc, and checked with me. Hopefully other care homes have done the same. DM had actually declined the vaccination, as POA we have said she is to have it. Not sure what they do if she says no on the day.

@FeelingBIue

The 50-65 age group may have been eligible for the flu vaccine on 1 December but where I live (London) there was no availability otherwise I would have had it.

Yes, I'm a practice nurse and we didn't get delivery of the vaccines for that cohort until mid December, I'm manically try to catch up before mid January when our PCN start covid vaccines.

Good uptake in all other cohorts this year though, plus 100% in staff too and we usually have a good few declining.

@MRex

From listening to Boris, it strikes me that they're stating vaccines for various groups, but how on earth are enough consents going to be gathered in care homes? Isn't that normally a major issue for flu vaccines? Is everyone going to profess surprise and concern in a few weeks that 100% don't want the vaccine?

Latest surveillance report has these stats (obviously none of the kids nor pregnant will be vaccinated):
Flu vaccine uptake is higher in all groups compared to this time last year. Provisional data suggests uptake rates are:
79.8% in over 65 year olds
50.1% in under 65 years in a clinical risk group
42.4% in pregnant women
21.4% in those aged 50 to 64 who are not in a clinical risk group (this group became eligible on the 1 December 2020)
53.3% in 2 year olds
55.7% in 3 year olds
47.5% in school age children (as of 30 November)
70.6% in healthcare workers (as of 30 November)

I'm surprised school age children is so low? My kids have had the flu vaccination. My DH would have (high risk group) but it wasn't really available and he was more worried about covid risk going to get it). I would normally have had it privately, but again, preferred to stay inside.

Me too @Quarantino, my DCs tell me 'everyone' had it at their school. I'm sure that isn't true but the refusers must have been low enough for them not to have noticed.

Happily in Surrey I was invited by my GP for a flu jab in December but had already had it at Boots (as always) in September.

Not entirely data but in Feb a member of my staff told us she's lost taste and smell before it was a thing. Felt fine and came in every day. She had an antibody test in the hols and 9 months later had antibodies. Makes wonder just how many asymptomatic ir very mild cases there are and what antibody testing would tell us if more widely available.

Mrex Dumfries and Galloway were in level 1 before our Boxing Day lockdown. Their numbers have increased by 302% in the week to 30th December. They now have the highest rate per 100,000 in Scotland at 245.
Scotland is still on holiday today, so there is s lot of catching up and release of various figures due later in the week.

Hope it's OK to butt in here and ask this, I hoped since you people on this thread are good with stats and risk etc, what is the likelihood that the children who went in to primary schools across the country today will have been infected by the new strain? I'm really struggling with the anxiety of it, I wish I'd just kept them off despite the risk of being fined.