Daily stats, numbers, data thread 02 Jan

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots [[imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

There’s really not very many LFs at all in Greater Manchester - a rough calc is about 750 a day.

Liverpool is where all the LFs are - think about 10,000 a day in LCR. Not that it’s helped, their rate has tripled in the last 2 weeks.

TheSun its not optimism.

The UK is in a dire position.

But I don't hate the UK and everything about it. I can look at Worldometer and see thatnthe figures in some places just don't stack up and that they have not been processing the tests.

But keep on being blinkered against the UK. I do find that incredibly frustrating.

@boys3

Isle of Wight .

Tier 1 after lockdown.

48 cases between 1st and 13th December including 2 days with zero cases.

29th December to 2nd Jan 1081 cases - with several of those days not fully complete yet.

Bloody hell, what's gone on there?

Is anyone else enraged beyond anything that this gov doesn't have the balls to stand up in front of the public, say what needs to be said and that's it?

Why the fuck does it always have to be leaked???? At this point it has to be on purpose.

If I'm being my usual cynical self I'd say that dom from behind/or whoever is:

• leaking
• social listening
• amending what is to be said at 7.55 based on public opinion.

it's more than a disgrace

boys3
“ Isle of Wight shock.

Tier 1 after lockdown.

48 cases between 1st and 13th December including 2 days with zero cases.

29th December to 2nd Jan 1081 cases - with several of those days not fully complete yet.”

Christ, we’ll if that’s anything to go by, I’ll need more than a gin to read your figures.

[quote boys3]@ceeveebee part of that apparent discrepancy may be the current disproportionate amount of LF tests in the North West as compared with the rest of England. It is an interesting point though that would be useful to get fully to the bottom of.[/quote]
Figures for each region of tested reported today with a date of 2 Jan or later (these are on descending order of number of cases)

London 45%
South East 45%
East 59%
West Midlands 67%
North west 71%
East Midlands 64%
South west 54%
Yorkshire 82%
North east 90%

Those Isle of White figures are shocking, the changes do not fit with the previous patterns of the virus, even allowing for Xmas travel and non-compliance, the new variant is surely playing a role.

@ceeveebee you are spot on in terms of LF tests in NW. I’m actually quite shocked at how limited the numbers are beyond Liverpool, Sefton etc. Back to my drawing board

@boys3

Isle of Wight .

Tier 1 after lockdown.

48 cases between 1st and 13th December including 2 days with zero cases.

29th December to 2nd Jan 1081 cases - with several of those days not fully complete yet.

At one point their cases were quintupling in a week.

Isle of Wight - holy crap. I think any areas that aren't under very tight restrictions when this variant hits are in really big trouble.

@TheSunIsStillShining - I don't see what your landlord has to do with the UK's covid response, but it is your legal right to say no. I'd say "No, sorry we already allowed photos and are under lockdown, so we are not comfortable having more people in the house when it isn't an emergency. We can take a photo of anything specific you want and otherwise you can take them after we leave on X date. Sorry for any inconvenience. Keep well and happy New Year."

@cathyandclare

Those Isle of White figures are shocking, the changes do not fit with the previous patterns of the virus, even allowing for Xmas travel and non-compliance, the new variant is surely playing a role.

The big problem they has was they were tier 1 while Portsmouth was tier 3 or 4 - people were getting the ferry over to go to the pub etc.

@littleowl1 I think you need to add a big health warning to that daily table you produce. It makes grim reading.

Not a single council even below 100 cases per 100,000 for the last seven days.

A rate not far off 200 per 100.000 gets a council into the lowest ten in England.

A rate of 500 per 100,000 does not even make the highest 100 councils

And to top it all 29 councils, so almost 10%, exceed 1000 cases per 100,000.

Thanks for all you are doing though......I think

@TheSunIsStillShining, I absolutely abhor Boris, but it's not all fucked - we have a vaccine (x2) and actions are being taken albeit a bit hotch potch I grant you. Tbf the situation is changing hourly and they are just trying to juggle everything to try and keep things in a bit of balance.

The Govt is between a rock and a hard place - you can see the diametric opinions of people on MN (which I think have become more polarised as time has passed)

On a thread yesterday a poster was saying (paraphrase) it would be karma if family members she knew who had mixed over Xmas (outwith the rules) got CV. She was absolutely piled on with SO many people saying they'd done similar and were ignoring rules and she was an evil human.

It's not just the govt who can be tossers

@MRex
Oh, landlord has nothing to do with that :) I was just venting. I was told by both agencies that I had to let them in. First time was reasonable in a sense that they need to advertise it, fair point. Hated the date.
This 2nd agency just called not this evening, hadn't looked up legislation, but hope you are right and I can say no.
and on why vent here... I'm on a few threads on other forums which have been going on for more than a decade. I just got used to the fact that we talk about other than the thread name, because we have "known" each other for ages. I'll stick to figures from now on and no commentary

@TheSunIsStillShining - you can offer to your landlord to check with the local authority's housing enforcement officers and public health about whether they recommend that this is allowed.

[quote SummerSazz]@TheSunIsStillShining, I absolutely abhor Boris, but it's not all fucked - we have a vaccine (x2) and actions are being taken albeit a bit hotch potch I grant you. Tbf the situation is changing hourly and they are just trying to juggle everything to try and keep things in a bit of balance.

The Govt is between a rock and a hard place - you can see the diametric opinions of people on MN (which I think have become more polarised as time has passed)

On a thread yesterday a poster was saying (paraphrase) it would be karma if family members she knew who had mixed over Xmas (outwith the rules) got CV. She was absolutely piled on with SO many people saying they'd done similar and were ignoring rules and she was an evil human.

It's not just the govt who can be tossers [/quote]

1. I don't buy into the hourly changing thing... Nothing significant has changed since morning. It was/could have been predicted what range today's number will be. Rapid changing... hmmmm. Sage advised WEEKS ago...

What rationale could there possibly be to make an announcement today evening and not morning, or sunday?

1. "actions are being taken albeit a bit hotch potch" Really? Every action was too late or simply a bad decision based on money not lives. EOHO, serco, TTR, ppe,...

This is from october: www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32153-X/fulltext?utm_campaign=tlcoronavirus20&utm_content=142466499&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-27013292

On a totally different note, I found this. Even if I don't fully agree with the approach of half dose, let's be fair: who cares and why should they? But here are a couple of experts on the subject. Informative if nothing else.

twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1346123076128432129

And to top it all 29 councils, so almost 10%, exceed 1000 cases per 100,000.

And out of 315 councils there are only 29 where rates have fallen in the last seven days, in all other areas rates are rising.

It is grim reading indeed.

I'm a lurker - just wondered if anyone can help: I follow the government dashboard and I notice that the hospital data hasn't been updated since 22nd December. Is it just me?

Drill down to England, and the data is there for England, others don't report.

[quote boys3]@ceeveebee you are spot on in terms of LF tests in NW. I’m actually quite shocked at how limited the numbers are beyond Liverpool, Sefton etc. Back to my drawing board [/quote]
Yes - it’s our punishment for having a mouthy mayor

@MoneySuperMeerkat

I'm a lurker - just wondered if anyone can help: I follow the government dashboard and I notice that the hospital data hasn't been updated since 22nd December. Is it just me?

It's only Scotland that hasn't reported for some reason.

www.itv.com/news/2021-01-04/covid-astrazeneca-expects-to-supply-two-million-coronavirus-vaccine-doses-per-week-by-mid-january

I am still a vaccine groupie.

they had mandatory masks in school if nothing else.
That is in itself huge.

Scotland has mandated masks in secondary schools in "high risk zones" since the beginning of November. They have also had tougher restrictions than England. Unfortunately, it did not help - cases there are now going up similarly to England. The issue is not that UK or England did something very different from other countries during the second wave. The real problem is the new strain.

Masks at schools might make a small difference but they do not appear to be a game changer.

From listening to Boris, it strikes me that they're stating vaccines for various groups, but how on earth are enough consents going to be gathered in care homes? Isn't that normally a major issue for flu vaccines? Is everyone going to profess surprise and concern in a few weeks that 100% don't want the vaccine?

Latest surveillance report has these stats (obviously none of the kids nor pregnant will be vaccinated):
Flu vaccine uptake is higher in all groups compared to this time last year. Provisional data suggests uptake rates are:
79.8% in over 65 year olds
50.1% in under 65 years in a clinical risk group
42.4% in pregnant women
21.4% in those aged 50 to 64 who are not in a clinical risk group (this group became eligible on the 1 December 2020)
53.3% in 2 year olds
55.7% in 3 year olds
47.5% in school age children (as of 30 November)
70.6% in healthcare workers (as of 30 November)

The 50-65 age group may have been eligible for the flu vaccine on 1 December but where I live (London) there was no availability otherwise I would have had it.