Daily stats, numbers, data thread 02 Jan

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots [[imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Thank you.

Found you!
Following on from the discussion about why there might have been an increase in tests on 29th dec:

Slightly more optimistically (!) it might be that people with mild symptoms who did not test on 25th and 26th weren't avoiding testing in order to mix with other households, but just not to interrupt the family Christmas day (boxing day a bit less special, I agree).

Though I agree to wait another 2 days to the 29th seems strange - by then you might well be feeling better anyway - so more likely not to go for a test at all than to 'catch up'.
And la Stromba's point about postal tests is interesting - that could account for part of the increase, I suppose.

@Aixenprovence I agree, and the point about postal tests is very interesting.

Re postal tests - Royal Mail "priority mailboxes" were running throughout the holiday period (with the exception of actual Christmas Day) but it is fair that some people might not have been aware of it.

thanks for the new thread :)

Yes, thanks @PatriciaHolm

Just an idle question, really - I had my test at 4.30pm on Thursday (New Year's Eve,) and the (positive) result came through at 6.30 this morning, so can't grumble at the turnaround. Will I be in the numbers for Thursday, Friday, or today?

but it is fair that some people might not have been aware of it

You also need to have got the test delivered to you before you can send it back.

74k on 29 Dec made even pessimistic me gasp.
Tbh I'm still amazed that over 14k people got tested on Xmas day.
(Just checked - 14k was the positives, 339k was the number tested).

@PuzzledObserver

Just an idle question, really - I had my test at 4.30pm on Thursday (New Year's Eve,) and the (positive) result came through at 6.30 this morning, so can't grumble at the turnaround. Will I be in the numbers for Thursday, Friday, or today?

I can only assume the specimen date will be Thursday. For postal ones, don't they ask you to input the date (and time?) you take it when returning it?

I think 29th was the first non-bank holiday day, so some people will have assumed test centres were closed until then so put it off. Plus you have the people who will have not bothered getting testing until they were due back to work.
Then you'll have had people who isolated themselves, hoping that it passes, and gave up and thought they better get tested, plus the postal tests.
So I don't think it's surprising that it's a huge surge on the 29th, and if you even it out from 24th to 29th it looks much better.

But it's naïve to think that people won't have laid off testing because they wanted to have their Christmas first. Hopefully it's a small number, but I suspect the people that are prepared to do that will also have been disproportionally inclined to ignore the guidelines and have big gathering, so it could be a small number with a big effect.

For example: Someone one of my dc knows, their dm wasn't feeling great on Christmas eve, but refused to go for a test because "if I don't cook dinner no one else will, and I haven't been anywhere so it can't be". They had 14 people round (3 families, plus their own family of 4).
They went for a test on 27th along with one of their children who had had a sore throat and both got a positive result. Yesterday 2 more of the group have tested positive and 4 more are feeling ill and going for a test. One is clinically vulnerable.

Time will tell. Hopefully it won't be enough to make a difference, and I am genuinely hopeful on that. Most people seem to have been sensible and I suspect any Christmas effect may be hidden by the upturn with the new variant.

Thanks for the new thread PatriciaHolm

Re the increase in positive tests vs number of tests taken - the dashboard for number of tests carried out hasn't been updated since 30 December so won't this skew the overall positivity percentage?

Thank you : that last thread filled quickly!

Ah, excellent point feelingblue - yes you can't compare the two headline figures on the dashboard.

For 29th Dec, which is the figure the last thread was homing in on, presumably it's also still a somewhat incomplete figure because of the lag - 4 or 5 days before the number of positive tests (and tests taken?) is more or less final?

@Quarantino - I don't know. I went to a test centre.

I genuinely don't understand how you'd invite multiple families including CEV to your house during a pandemic when you're ill. If you give enough of a shit about people to invite them for Christmas I would have hoped you'd give enough of a shit about them not to put them at great risk of serious illness or worse.
Anyway, not data, sorry.

[quote PuzzledObserver]@Quarantino - I don't know. I went to a test centre.[/quote]
Yes, sorry, I assumed that - would you have any reason to think your specimen date would be something different? I'd be pretty sure the specimen date would be recorded on the day it was taken (although obv with postal tests this relies on self-reporting!)

I don't think testing centres were open Christmas day (not here anyway)?

A good piece on R4 right now on schools - including Professor Semple on whether there is a rise in cases for children (he says no). Education is important for early years but then again not much else to close to get R down

Won’t paraphrase rest but worth listening to

@Redwinestillfine

I don't think testing centres were open Christmas day (not here anyway)?

They were, yes, though some with reduced hours. I think a lot of the quick test lateral flow setups closed though.

Folks - I am in the process of collating and analysing the data for Covid Messenger's evening run.

And I have been stopped in my tracks. I don't know if anyone else has noticed this??

I know I mentioned yesterday about the dip in positive cases =on 24th/25th/26th and that we are likely to get a bit of a "correction" as people turn up to be tested once Xmas is over.

But I wasnt expecting the increase in cases. I dont know why I wasnt but I wasnt. Look at the total cases by specimen date in England - copied below

21-Dec : 42k
22-Dec : 40k
23-Dec : 37k
24-Dec : 28k
25-Dec : 12.5k
26-Dec : 36k
27-Dec : 42k
28-Dec : 39k
29-Dec : 66k

Look at Dec 29th. 66k. That is England only - does not include S, W & N.I. That is not good.

(I pull this data from their API data feed but you can also verify this if you look at the "Cases" section of the dashboard and then look "Cases by specimen date" --> "Data" -> "by nation" and look at the England Daily column.)

Obviously this 66K will feed into cases by publish date in due course and there was obviously some kind of cases reporting lag that has meant the daily published cases is lagging somewhat.

Any thoughts on what is causing this major lag in publish date vs specimen date totals? I need to think about it more myself before offering a hypothesis.

Anyway, i need to get back to the Covid Messenger data run. I will pop back on once that is complete.

I should also add that there is quite likely to be another 8-10% of cases added to that total for Dec 29th when further positive results are reported for that specimen date

29th was the first working day after Christmas, as 27th was Sunday and 28th Bank holiday.
Maybe there was less testing availability. Maybe people thought the test centres would be shut and waited a couple of days.
Maybe people didn't bother testing until they were due back to work?

@littleowl1
I've spotted this too on the end of the last thread.
Current hypotheses:

1. mail ins returned
2. more people went testing
3. ppl are fuckers and did xmas before testing regardless of having symptoms or not. (most cynical)
4. ppl weren't aware that testing centers were open and only went on the 29th

Sorry I have just scrolled back through the thread and looks like you guys were on this already!

I will dig out the previous thread to get the full discussion as I think its chopped off on this one.

Sorry for the repetition!!!!