Daily stats, numbers, data thread 02 Jan

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots [[imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@Aixenprovence

It’s free and quite good. They are adding new data/fields/granularity all the time. Frankly i prefer it than the dashboard. I think developers who aren’t data analysts are putting much of the dashboard together so you see they sometimes make data interpretation mistakes - although most now ironed out (I sent quite a few emails to them about errors in data representation!!)

Docs for api here coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/developers-guide

@PatriciaHolm
are you sure we're talking about the same thing here? My data aggregation is per date: tests conducted and specimen date.
So your above sentence doesn't make sense to me.

Thanks for the new thread.

Are death numbers all over the place simply because we're in Christmas and New year week? Two days almost a thousand then going down, but don't dare think it's a trend - I guess it's almost like a whole week/ten days of weekend figures with the odd catch up in between :(

Thanks little owl, I think it was Sun who was asking about the Api availability, but I might venture there myself! Good to know that developers of the dashboard are responsive to feedback.

And yes, I thought sun was dividing positive specimen date by number of tests done that day; whereas I think PH is saying that one divides 'positive results on 29th specimens' by number of tests carried out on 28th (because the specimen doesn't get 'worked on' until the following day, usually) That would explain the lower number of tests on Boxing Day than Christmas Day, if I've understood her (and am remembering the figures correctly, which I may not be but don't want to lose this post by scrolling up)

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@PatriciaHolm
are you sure we're talking about the same thing here? My data aggregation is per date: tests conducted and specimen date.
So your above sentence doesn't make sense to me.
[/quote]
I see; sorry, can't see the graph that well!

But my point remains still; number of tests reported as results of X date do not correlate with specimen dates for X date. Tests for X date relate to specimen dates for a least one day before (which explains the big 21% spike in your table earlier).

If you are comparing, say, a Monday's tests reported vs the same days' specimen date results, you are likely to see a spike, as the tests relate to specimen dates from the Sat/Sun. Look back at tests numbers for Nov/Dec - you will see that the lowest number each week is actually the Monday, which relates to tests with a specimen date from Sat and Sunday. Which means you get a spike if you try to compare tests from the Monday to specimen dates for the Monday.

This week, especially, trying to match tests reported vs specimen date is going to lead to swings, given reporting delays and people's odd behaviour re testing!

@Aixenprovence

And yes, I thought sun was dividing positive specimen date by number of tests done that day; whereas I think PH is saying that one divides 'positive results on 29th specimens' by number of tests carried out on 28th (because the specimen doesn't get 'worked on' until the following day, usually) That would explain the lower number of tests on Boxing Day than Christmas Day, if I've understood her (and am remembering the figures correctly, which I may not be but don't want to lose this post by scrolling up)

Yes, exactly - tests reported for Boxing Day are the lowest for 11 days, because they relate to the drop in specimens taken on Christmas Day.

@Madhairday

Thanks for the new thread.

Are death numbers all over the place simply because we're in Christmas and New year week? Two days almost a thousand then going down, but don't dare think it's a trend - I guess it's almost like a whole week/ten days of weekend figures with the odd catch up in between :(

Yes, the couple of days of high reporting were largely back filling from bank holidays. Deaths by date of death are increasing but it's a fairly steady rise. Rp131 on twitter is your best bet for some good graphics. Expect a couple more funny days due to Bank holidays/weekend.

@MarshaBradyo
Good. Thanks for coming back, that's good news anyway.

@TheSunIsStillShining and I hope your chicken isn't too burnt! Now I'm hungry....

But my point remains still; number of tests reported as results of X date do not correlate with specimen dates for X date. Tests for X date relate to specimen dates for a least one day before (which explains the big 21% spike in your table earlier).

Let's see if I can get it. Because it makes no sense.
I'd expect that if tests carried out on 5th of dec and cases on 5th of dec in specimen date view would match up.

So you'r saying that I should shift the % equation to one day earlier for the tests?

btw I think I get what you're saying. The numbers didn't really get any better though.

Just to add to last post this was linked elsewhere. Response on hospitalisation for children.

www.rcpch.ac.uk/news-events/news/rcpch-responds-media-reports-increased-admissions-children-young-people-covid-19?fbclid=IwAR0To78ci_Ra9CXHCAV3pM91MO31zfcpmMlcfxi9-ozdtwPu9n9xE54dPc4

@TheSunIsStillShining

In your graph, the 433,470 tests number you have for 20th relates to cases with a specimen date of, mostly, 19th and 18th. (and probably some 17th).

Which is why a better day by day % would be to divide to so 25143/433, 470 but that is still off, as the 433,470 is made up of specimen dates from more than one day. Which is why rolling average!

@TheSunIsStillShining

btw I think I get what you're saying. The numbers didn't really get any better though.

No, not really!! It's a maths argument mostly, and rolling average eliminates the issue (mostly, though this fortnight will still be odd)

my all time fav chicken is cooking: buttery potato chicken. layers of thinly sliced potato/butter and in the middle a couple of chicken breasts hidden. little white wine (acid to cut through the grease :) ) with the water under it, salt, pepper. 50m in the oven covered, then 15-20 to brown the top layer of potatoes.

Learnt it from my great grandma when I was about 9

@TheSunIsStillShining

my all time fav chicken is cooking: buttery potato chicken. layers of thinly sliced potato/butter and in the middle a couple of chicken breasts hidden. little white wine (acid to cut through the grease :) ) with the water under it, salt, pepper. 50m in the oven covered, then 15-20 to brown the top layer of potatoes.

Learnt it from my great grandma when I was about 9

NOW VERY HUNGRY.

Sounds FAB.

(derail over)

No, not really!! It's a maths argument mostly
You sound exactly like my husband :)
Ok, i really got it. But now off for dinner.

Caveat to everyone reading: pls. don't look at my table's pos. rate, max the raw numbers.

on a theoretical level I would design the database to have attributes for
TestAdministationDate
TestProcessDate
TestReportedAsCaseDate
TestReportedAsSpecimenDate

I'll have a look at the api on how it's actually done.

@littleowl1
Am I seeing correctly that hospital admissions by age are only cum figures?
I don't get that if they have the NHS daily report, why not parse it in and show it in one place?

The FT have produced a good graph on the positivity rates

Whilst there's clearly a lot more cases, positivity over the holiday is likely to go up surely, as more of the testing of people without suspected covid will be dropped - no routine admissions to hospital etc. So I do think the timing of the increase combining with the holiday is rather annoying.

But why the spike on 29th?

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/02/full-scale-covid-pandemic-unknown-data-suggests-one-four-tests/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

Telegraph articles suggests 1 in 4 tests are positive in some parts of London.

The chicken does sound good!

@herecomesthsun

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/02/full-scale-covid-pandemic-unknown-data-suggests-one-four-tests/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

Telegraph articles suggests 1 in 4 tests are positive in some parts of London.

The chicken does sound good!

It was :)

www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports

ICU data here