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Original poster

Betting: when will schools be shut?

237 replies

notevenat20 · 01/01/2021 09:42

My guess is the govt will shut all schools soonish. This view is partly based on reading www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-12-31-COVID19-Report-42-Preprint-VOC.pdf

So what to do in a crisis? That’s right, betting. Here are the questions.

In which month will secondary schools next be open?

In which month will primary schools next be shut?

My votes are: March and January.

They may open primaries on the 4th but I don’t think it will last. Secondaries won’t open at all in Jan/Feb.

OP posts:
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6
Char2015 · 01/01/2021 09:47

They need to shut schools and all childcare and early years settings and that needs to happen NOW. My children's school opening up to nursery and reception classes. Apparently it's safe to send my reception child but not my KS2 child. Does not make the slightest sense. I think Gov will try and drag it out until the end of Jan before shutting them all. We need a lockdown like March/April/May time. That did bring numbers down. This tier system is now bringing numbers down as quick if at all in some areas.

Char2015 · 01/01/2021 09:48

is not

MadameBlobby · 01/01/2021 09:49

I’m in Scotland and foresee all schools being closed until at least after February half term.

MadameBlobby · 01/01/2021 09:50

I’ve been all for schools opening but really they surely just can’t with numbers the way they are.

Hazelnutlatteplease · 01/01/2021 09:50

They'll reopen with mass testing after the Feb half term

EnglishGirlApproximately · 01/01/2021 09:51

I'm assuming primary will be closed within two weeks. Hopefully by the government as we could plan for it and still go out for walks etc. Even if that doesn't happen its only a matter of time before the bubble bursts.

Eng123 · 01/01/2021 09:55

Has anyone not noticed that schools have been closed for 2 weeks and yet the infection rate keeps climbing? I appreciate it takes some time to show in the figures but I don't believe it's being driven by schools. What i did notice was my packed high street when i drove past it, very busy roads, groups meeting in play parks and an amazing selection of "click and collect" options! Really nothing has been locked down. Let's lock things down properly before closing schools.

Original poster
notevenat20 · 01/01/2021 10:04

Has anyone not noticed that schools have been closed for 2 weeks and yet the infection rate keeps climbing?

That is a very good point.

OP posts:
Char2015 · 01/01/2021 10:12

@Eng123

Has anyone not noticed that schools have been closed for 2 weeks and yet the infection rate keeps climbing? I appreciate it takes some time to show in the figures but I don't believe it's being driven by schools. What i did notice was my packed high street when i drove past it, very busy roads, groups meeting in play parks and an amazing selection of "click and collect" options! Really nothing has been locked down. Let's lock things down properly before closing schools.
But when schools are open numbers are higher. May not be solely schools driving numbers up, but they do when they are open. I can only imagine what the numbers will be in a few weeks when children start returning this coming week.
DinosaurDildo · 01/01/2021 10:14

Any U turn is possible from the 4th Jan. I think a week or two then they will all close.

Char2015 · 01/01/2021 10:16

Oh yes, I definitely predict a u-turn at some point. Sage are advising a national lockdown with all schools/childcare closed across the country. Even then, Sage are saying that it will bring R down but it may still not be enough. Why are Government not listening.

THATbasicSNOWFLAKE · 01/01/2021 10:20

I think they will try and keep primaries in til late Jan, ridiculous. They are clearly going to have to close at some point so just do it now!

DayBath · 01/01/2021 10:26

@Char2015

Oh yes, I definitely predict a u-turn at some point. Sage are advising a national lockdown with all schools/childcare closed across the country. Even then, Sage are saying that it will bring R down but it may still not be enough. Why are Government not listening.
Is that sage or 'independent sage' saying that?
2boysand1princess · 01/01/2021 10:29

Unfortunately I think it’s time to close schools for a a month or 2. The nhs is going to collapse if we don’t do anything and everything right now to lower cases.

We already know that schools are helping to increase rates in communities when kids are taking it home to their families, however I also think if schools closed then it would send a clear message to those that believe it’s pointless following the guidelines/restrictions as their kids are mingling in highly infectious environments daily anyway. And tbh they have a point. If primaries and secondaries are open it’s really hard to see how me not visiting my parents or siblings is going to help when my kids go to 2 different schools with high covid cases.

2boysand1princess · 01/01/2021 10:32

@DayBath “ Is that sage or 'independent sage' saying that?”

Sage

MrsWhites · 01/01/2021 10:33

I personally think all schools will be closed with the first two weeks back, I really wish they would take the decision now though (or better still a week ago to give parents time to plan). It will surely be more disruptive to children to go back to school for a week for them to close again than it would be to remain closed after Christmas.

lazylockdowner · 01/01/2021 10:33

I'm all for education (I work in two primary schools, have 4 children one currently in year 11) but I 100% think all school need to close now an we need to get ourselves out this mess

Last lockdown we ran a really good hub provision for key worker and could do the same this time... my fear is they will keep trying to drag on primary schools until they crumble because they can't open as staff are ill and isolating... that then means there will be no hub or childcare provision.... so who's going to look after the kids of the nurses and doctors etc who are needed in hospitals ?

Madness close them now so we can run this hub and keep the key workers working

Original poster
notevenat20 · 01/01/2021 10:41

Last lockdown we ran a really good hub provision for key worker and could do the same this time.

One problem out of many is that not all schools give an accept online education during lockdown. When this happens it inevitably widens the gap between those with educated parents and those without.

OP posts:
Eng123 · 01/01/2021 10:42

My child was abandoned by his school last time. We did what we could but seriously lock everything else down, then and only then, close schools if needed. Tier 4 is a joke - everything is open!

SirVixofVixHall · 01/01/2021 10:45

It takes time to see results from school closures, people dying now will probably have been infected before the schools broke up, and children who picked it up in school and then spread it will have been passing it on in the pre Christmas period, so I think it will take a little bit longer to see numbers dropping from schools closing, especially as there was a flurry of shopping and meeting up before lockdowns.

Excited101 · 01/01/2021 10:48

Schools should close as a very last resort. There are SO many (still legal and allowed) opportunities for people to mix and spread the virus- they need to be limited much more before the schools are shut.

Chosennonesneakymincepie · 01/01/2021 10:52

Hmmm the DFE guidance seems set on the 18th as a full opening. I guess the caveat is 'with some local restrictions'. Would it not be more likely that a tier 5 will be introduced to the areas with the highest cases/NHS serious incident zones? I cant see a full national lockdown in the horizon Sad but I guess it really is a balancing act with the data they have in front of them.

Bluebird2021 · 01/01/2021 10:52

Our local retail park is still full of shoppers

Pets at home fully open
The range open
B&m open
Home bargains open
M&S food open
B and q open

Argos click/collect
Next click/collect
Matalan click/collect

All food outlets drive thru/takeaway

Nice little day out really. How much of it is ‘essential’

designmama · 01/01/2021 10:53

If they do close schools which I personally hope they don’t, I don’t think the kids are the issue. My little one caught Covid from a member of staff at Nursery and didn’t pass it on to any of us including my DD in Y1 or us or grandparent in our bubble. It seems like a lot of the higher rates are caused by some individuals who can’t adhere to the rules. I can’t begin to express how many conversations I have heard whilst doing the school run about kids having sleepovers at their friends houses, parents gathering in groups outside school having a chat with no distancing. Also, lots of people out for the Boxing Day sales. Why should kids have to suffer because of behaviour like this. Before anyone starts shouting at me I think staff at schools and other educational provisions should be moved up the priority list for the vaccine for their protection. For many children school is their safe environment and if they do close so many parents could potentially lose their livelihoods because they won’t be able to work. The mental health impact for everyone will also be massive as a result.

CallmeAngelGabriel · 01/01/2021 10:53

"Schools should close as a very last resort."

This IS the last resort.