Betting: when will schools be shut?

[notevenat20]

My guess is the govt will shut all schools soonish. This view is partly based on reading www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-12-31-COVID19-Report-42-Preprint-VOC.pdf

So what to do in a crisis? That’s right, betting. Here are the questions.

In which month will secondary schools next be open?

In which month will primary schools next be shut?

My votes are: March and January.

They may open primaries on the 4th but I don’t think it will last. Secondaries won’t open at all in Jan/Feb.

Both my children have effectively lost their jobs. Trust me, they are pissed off to know that this is going to last much longer than otherwise, due to Gavin's obsession with keeping schools open when it is clear to any rational person that it will make things even worse.

The NEU have just announced they are having an emergency meeting tomorrow about schools going back on Monday. I'm not sure what it will achieve but it is good to see them taking the worsening crisis seriously.

I attended an emergency meeting with the local branch of NEU yesterday. Very large numbers attended (Zoom).
Nothing will happen on a large scale, but they had advice about what teachers should do in individual cases of SLTs misinterpreting guidance etc..

@notevenat20

In relation to mass testing. I am not sure that detecting half the cases from asymptomatic people is a bad thing. It's surely much better than detecting 0% of them.

I am also not sure this is the best we can do. The Innova test doesn't seem to be as good as the Roche test for example. My personal preference would be to use the pooled testing strategy they used at Cambridge University for all their students.

I’d agree with you in relation to the mass screening in English schools. However the same test is then going to be used for direct contacts of positive cases instead of isolation in schools in England and Wales (not sure about Scotland or NI). This is stupid and dangerous.

I'm in Scotland and I reckon we'll be sending our kids back after easter.

I'm fed up with people saying my sons schooling will bounce back! No actually it won't it will be hard fought for. He was just catching up when the first lockdown started. His school abandoned his year completely. We did what we could and found a tutor but still he regressed. He is being supported in be first year of juniors but still not wheel he was. He is by far not unique. This "obsession" with keeping schools open is for a dambed good reason

• it is critical. Schools should not be being closed while all retail is wide open as it is at the moment even in tier 4!

It's not possible to correlate where people truly contacted the virus - how would you know if it was from a child, on a visit to a supermarket or christmas shopping! The problem is the level of mixing in general society.

It will be very interesting to see what happens with the London Boroughs-if they ignore Gavin and close anyway due to rising infection rates, I think other areas will follow.

People are overstating the situation. Yes there are more ‘cases’ but cases are irrelevant -it is the severity and effect on the ‘NHS’
Asymptomatic schoolchildren (or indeed) are not proven to be infecting others.
The vaccine is rolling out, so he catastrophisers will be disappointed /pressure sill ease on the NHS which is what the lockdowns etc are all about.

@EmmanuelleMakro

People are overstating the situation. Yes there are more ‘cases’ but cases are irrelevant -it is the severity and effect on the ‘NHS’ Asymptomatic schoolchildren (or indeed) are not proven to be infecting others. The vaccine is rolling out, so he catastrophisers will be disappointed /pressure sill ease on the NHS which is what the lockdowns etc are all about.

Have you heard what’s going on in hospitals?

I’ve been in favour of schools remaining open fully but even I cannot see how they can go back with the number of cases and hospitals overflowing

Just seen on twitter now. It's a start.

The government really are fucking useless aren’t they.

I have just received an email from my Teaching union, they have called for an urgent zoom meeting on Sunday regarding Primary schools reopening

The first on many u turns. Fucking useless.

I’d far rather schools were closed in a planned and managed way than send them back so swathes of children and teachers can catch it so there are bubbles popping left right and centre. Homeschooling and working was one of the most stressful periods of my life and I have absolutely no desire to do it again, but do I think we need to for the safety of teacher and hospitals, absolutely. I’m CEV and am supposed only to leave my house for exercise and medical appointments, apart from to stand in a playground with 200 other parents . I’m married to a medic and our hospital is on its knees, they are working with about 1/3 the level of staff they need and as a result people are getting poor care. I’m so so angry that the government are ignoring this and pushing on with opening up schools (for now)

So London's children are kept safe while children in other tier 4 areas are thrown back into the shitstorm? I'm in the Midlands in tier 4 and cases are rocketing here. Anyone know the magic number whereby I'll be legally allowed to keep my kids safe at time too? I'm so bloody angry.

@EmmanuelleMakro

People are overstating the situation. Yes there are more ‘cases’ but cases are irrelevant -it is the severity and effect on the ‘NHS’ Asymptomatic schoolchildren (or indeed) are not proven to be infecting others. The vaccine is rolling out, so he catastrophisers will be disappointed /pressure sill ease on the NHS which is what the lockdowns etc are all about.

Wow just wow. Have you seen the situation in hospitals ?

@Beebityboo

So London's children are kept safe while children in other tier 4 areas are thrown back into the shitstorm? I'm in the Midlands in tier 4 and cases are rocketing here. Anyone know the magic number whereby I'll be legally allowed to keep my kids safe at time too? I'm so bloody angry.

Sorry. Only London matters.

I think that we will need to come to terms with the fact that secondary schools are not reopening. I hate this but I think it's reality.

@Beebityboo

So London's children are kept safe while children in other tier 4 areas are thrown back into the shitstorm? I'm in the Midlands in tier 4 and cases are rocketing here. Anyone know the magic number whereby I'll be legally allowed to keep my kids safe at time too? I'm so bloody angry.

It is terrible how other areas have been treated. I hope now there will be a shift and each authority will make a stand. The bullying tactics from dfe are unforgivable.

@Beebityboo

So London's children are kept safe while children in other tier 4 areas are thrown back into the shitstorm? I'm in the Midlands in tier 4 and cases are rocketing here. Anyone know the magic number whereby I'll be legally allowed to keep my kids safe at time too? I'm so bloody angry.

Same boat here. I predict Birmingham primaries will close but other Midlands areas will have to carry on. Numbers seem to be highest there, although it's getting on for 350 per 100,000 around my kids school which in March would have been considered way to high! Not happy about this at all!

Breaking news from the Guardian just now that ALL London primaries will shut including those previously planned to open... www.theguardian.com/education/2021/jan/01/all-primary-schools-in-london-to-remain-closed-after-u-turn?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

I see its already been on Twitter!

Oops bet Gav ain’t happy

[quote TokyoSushi]Breaking news from the Guardian just now that ALL London primaries will shut including those previously planned to open... www.theguardian.com/education/2021/jan/01/all-primary-schools-in-london-to-remain-closed-after-u-turn?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other[/quote]
Thank you for posting this!