Betting: when will schools be shut?

[notevenat20]

My guess is the govt will shut all schools soonish. This view is partly based on reading www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-12-31-COVID19-Report-42-Preprint-VOC.pdf

So what to do in a crisis? That’s right, betting. Here are the questions.

In which month will secondary schools next be open?

In which month will primary schools next be shut?

My votes are: March and January.

They may open primaries on the 4th but I don’t think it will last. Secondaries won’t open at all in Jan/Feb.

There were these sorts of posts in august time and the schools didn't shut.

Stop wasting your breath

My guess for whole country school closures, both primary and secondary: £5 on 29th January. There may be delays and closures prior to this point in some areas.

The numbers for school closures from the Xmas break will probably be voided by the Xmas day covid soup mixing.

However anyone who thinks it’s safe for a class of 30 children to be sat in close proximity to one another in a poorly ventilated room with heating on for hours at a time with this new highly contagious variant needs their head testing.

I think we all need to reassess what is meant by ‘emergency’ and ‘essential’

People will argue that a garden centre is essential because it sells seeds. Seeds=plants=food

Enough arguments about things like this and suddenly we find there’s an argument whereas everything is ‘essential’!

@Remmy123

There were these sorts of posts in august time and the schools didn't shut.

Stop wasting your breath

Schools are closed. I know you keep saying on multiple threads they are open. They aren’t. You can come and home ed my children if you want because their schools are closed!

It is as ever really unclear what the right thing to do is. We all understand the possibly irreversible harm shutting schools will have to children and to families who are not wealthy and have to work. What we really don't know is what difference it would make to the rise in cases in the over 60s. I am really glad I am not the govt. But really this thread is just for betting rather than opinions on what is right or wrong

Last lockdown we ran a really good hub provision for key worker and could do the same this time.

What about those of us not considered key workers? I wasn't classed a key worker last time but I worked throughout - so did DH. I was busier than ever and it pretty much broke me.

The nature of my job between Jan and Easter means I can't look after a small child and work, never mind home school.

Cases are very low where I live and have been throughout. We've had 3 cases in school since September one of which was a member of staff who doesn't have any contact with children. It would not make sense to close all schools.
It should be done in a localised basis.

How many millions of jobs are shelved on @lljkk's list above, in order to keep schools open?

It enjoys me the number of people willing to throw my childs education under a bus. The impact of on children of catching the disease is fortunately low. Reduce the social contact in society and it makes it manageable, combined with people getting drunk in pubs and non essential shopping and its not. Close down the retail/ entertainments industry for a month and the problem is far reduced.

what difference it would make to the rise in cases in the over 60
Rise in ‘cases’ is irrelevant it is the severity that is the key and while the vaccination programmed is now accelerating even if those ‘over 60s’ catch it they will not need hospitalisation at the same rate, do the impact will diminish progressively. Utterly pointless closing schools -the landscape is vastly different that last Match when there were do many unknowns. Even Harriet Hartman was making this point today on LBC.

"It enjoys me the number of people willing to throw my childs education under a bus."

But you're willing to throw my children's jobs under a bus?

"Rise in ‘cases’ is irrelevant it is the severity that is the key"

So, what is causing all those Covid patients to rock up in hospitals at the moment then, causing massive issues?

@CallmeAngelina
Yes, a temporary suspension is something a working age person can recover from far better than a primary age child who is already struggling.

Has anyone not noticed that schools have been closed for 2 weeks and yet the infection rate keeps climbing?

That is a very good point.

Surely you don’t need exponential growth explaining yet again?

It’s not about throwing education under a bus. That’s hysterical and not the point - parent of two exam year children here.

It’s about children catching and spreading it. They don’t in school. Then with an illness where 20% of people will need hospital treatment, if it is new and spreads easily you’re in trouble. It isn’t even about deaths from Covid really. In some places the NHS now cannot cope with those who need Covid support. So people who have require the health service and may have lived. May now die. That’s the issue.

If people genuinely can’t see that, there is absolutely no cure for that.

If only the government had listened and stopped putting their heads in the sand my children would be in school next week. They aren’t.

@Eng123

It enjoys me the number of people willing to throw my childs education under a bus. The impact of on children of catching the disease is fortunately low. Reduce the social contact in society and it makes it manageable, combined with people getting drunk in pubs and non essential shopping and its not. Close down the retail/ entertainments industry for a month and the problem is far reduced.

This post is now completely out of date given the new strain. In the areas where the new strain is prolific, lockdown with schools open didn't work.

All of our kids back in school are back where we would expect them to be.
Kids (in the main) bounce back. Temporary closures (for a damn good reason as at the moment) will not scar them for life. They will recover.

Way too many "backs" there.

Don’t live in school*

Schools won't be shut by Gavin. They'll just close ad hoc leaving parents with nothing. It's largely parents fault, I'm afraid, for not agitating more and not supporting the schools campaigns. They can not teach key workers if they are closed for lack of staff.

@Barbie222

Schools won't be shut by Gavin. They'll just close ad hoc leaving parents with nothing. It's largely parents fault, I'm afraid, for not agitating more and not supporting the schools campaigns. They can not teach key workers if they are closed for lack of staff.

This. There will be no KW and V provision shortly. So it is what it is. Many schools are struggling to supply it as it is.

Yes, all those vulnerable kids that posters suddenly developed a concern for, when it suited their argument, will be worse off with ad hoc closures than they would planned ones.

I reckon all of tier 4 will be closed by the 11th

Well I have a Primary and a Secondary Child struggling right now. The Primary age child is probably working a year below due to SEN issues which are just coming to light. But you know what I have every hope that in the years to come she will catch up. I may be wrong of course and the gap may widen. If Primary School close it will be a big issue as she doesn't handle home learning well but needs must.
My Secondary age child missed virtually the whole of year 9 due to health issues and lockdown and some of year 10. No one gives a toss about these kids who do not feel safe in school. It is all about the vulnerable where school is their safe space although I bet no one really cared before it started to affect their child. This child is currently receiving personal tuition from LA face to face. If this is suspended she will struggle to pass even the basic English, Maths and Science as unlikely to engage with Teams type tuition. This is a child who was always top in everything. It is heartbreaking. No real support from any agencies due to COVID.
It is such a difficult situation and as much as I hate Boris with a passion I wouldn't want to be making these decisions.

The mass testing is worse than useless - it is dangerous. Even under labratory conditions the lateral flow tests only accurately detect covid just 70% of the time. A recent study found that when they were used at the University of Birmingham they worked only 3% of the time (www.newscientist.com/article/2263746-test-caught-just-3-per-cent-of-students-with-covid-19-at-uk-university/)

This could mean that, if they are used, then between 30% and 97% of kids with Covid (and all of their contacts) would be allowed into school.

Why this isn't all over the media is really deeply strange.