Betting: when will schools be shut?

[notevenat20]

My guess is the govt will shut all schools soonish. This view is partly based on reading www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-12-31-COVID19-Report-42-Preprint-VOC.pdf

So what to do in a crisis? That’s right, betting. Here are the questions.

In which month will secondary schools next be open?

In which month will primary schools next be shut?

My votes are: March and January.

They may open primaries on the 4th but I don’t think it will last. Secondaries won’t open at all in Jan/Feb.

Close down the retail/ entertainments industry for a month and the problem is far reduced.

We have already tried that and at nearly a thousand deaths yesterday. I don’t see the problem reducing.

Absolutely I think in Liverpool it missed half the positive cases.

How much of the decision to close is up to Williamson? He won't shut them, odious little twerp that he is. His ego couldn't hack it.

I agree with OP that we would be better off knowing that our child's school is likely to be shut now, rather than finding out by text from your school on a Sunday night that Gavin has quietly added your region to the contingency framework list without any fuss. That's why he's done it this way now - because it reflects better on him and means he doesn't have to stand up in the Commons and "shut schools again".

Do we really think that in two weeks the data will have miraculously fallen in the worst affected areas, as well as remained steady or dropped in the neighbouring areas? No, the closures announced already are just the beginning, because he doesn't have the balls to tell parents straight about this, like he didn't have the balls with the A levels, and he doesn't even have the balls to lead from the front with his own Department.

Sage are advising a national lockdown with all schools/childcare closed across the country. Even then, Sage are saying that it will bring R down but it may still not be enough

I sometimes wonder what SAGE think would be enough - barricading doors or closing hospitals perhaps?

In the meantime, though, I had to smile over the ONS not producing data for the thick end of a fortnight. Since this is supposed to be a once-in-a-lifetime cataclysm you'd think a way would be found to carry on doing it, but apparently not

A large part of the awful situation with the hospitals is due to staff shortages.
The same will happen when schools reopen: we have an extremely contagious strain of Covid - as soon as students and staff mix, there will be high staff absence.
It was what drove schools to close in March.
This will happen very quickly - possibly within two weeks of all high school returning - so end of January.
I think, realistically, that schools will close before then - the government will see the reality of the impossible roll out of testing school kids unfold, the NHS will be in a desperate situation and numbers will increase. This will happen end of next week at the latest.

So, schools will close very soon - probably before all high school are due back. And will remain closed for at least six weeks.

Much as it pains me to say it, @SophieB100, I think you're right.

Medical Director for PHE tweeted that meeting in close groups this NYE would be adding fuel to the fire.

Surely sending 1000s of primary children back into school in a matter of days isn't just adding fuel to this fire, it's pouring bloody petrol all over it?!!!

In relation to mass testing. I am not sure that detecting half the cases from asymptomatic people is a bad thing. It's surely much better than detecting 0% of them.

I am also not sure this is the best we can do. The Innova test doesn't seem to be as good as the Roche test for example. My personal preference would be to use the pooled testing strategy they used at Cambridge University for all their students.

people do care. I think people really do

Everyone can see the problems created by closing services....but do you really want to put others at risk so your own life is made easier?

Has anyone not noticed that schools have been closed for 2 weeks and yet the infection rate keeps climbing?

Most schools closed 2 weeks ago today. That's just enough time for them to infect a family member each and them all to get sick, same as before. Then the Christmas mixing could also counterbalance the closure. It's really not as simple as you make out.

And honestly the rates aren't for you to 'believe' - we have actual data on how many children are infected and before schools closed they were the highest of any age group. Shortly followed by primary. And will be again if/when schools open.

Just saw a tweet from BBC5 Live. A matron at a London hospital saying they have whole wards full of children with Covid, different to the first wave .

A whole ward full rather.

@Bluebird2021

people do care. I think people really do

Everyone can see the problems created by closing services....but do you really want to put others at risk so your own life is made easier?

Do you really think it's a case of people wanting an easy life? For lots of people it's about keeping their job, not losing their house and being able to buy food.

And do you know who are losing their jobs or having quit working? Women.

We are on the brink of losing decades of progress made by women in the labour market.

I agree with OP that we would be better off knowing that our child's school is likely to be shut now, rather than finding out by text from your school on a Sunday night that Gavin has quietly added your region to the contingency framework list without any fuss. That's why he's done it this way now - because it reflects better on him and means he doesn't have to stand up in the Commons and "shut schools again".

I think this is exactly what will happen. He won’t do any more big announcements as he’s shit at them-but will quietly continue to quietly and randomly add more schools to page 14 of the contingency plan in the middle of the night.

He’ll still be saying ‘all schools are open’ when it’s only the ones on the Scilly Isles that actually are!

I am praying for primary schools in tier 4 areas to all be shut. As I and my husband are clinically vulnerable I do not want the outcome of going to work this term to be that one or both of us dies. Too many people (including members of the government) are in denial of the risks.

I am keeping Y4 DS off as I’m betting that they will be shut within two weeks and it’s not worth the risk to send him and wait for the u turn.

I’m thinking schools will reopen at Easter (hoping)

@Beebityboo I've heard this too a few days ago. It's worrying. Our schools our closed but nursery is open and while it is I will have to send my two year old in in order to work. If it's closed I can negotiate doing different hours or taking parental leave with my employer but that doesn't fly if I choose to keep him off. I hate taking the risk and I don't understand the logic behind closing schools but not nurseries.

'Are closed'

@2boysand1princess

Unfortunately I think it’s time to close schools for a a month or 2. The nhs is going to collapse if we don’t do anything and everything right now to lower cases.

We already know that schools are helping to increase rates in communities when kids are taking it home to their families, however I also think if schools closed then it would send a clear message to those that believe it’s pointless following the guidelines/restrictions as their kids are mingling in highly infectious environments daily anyway. And tbh they have a point. If primaries and secondaries are open it’s really hard to see how me not visiting my parents or siblings is going to help when my kids go to 2 different schools with high covid cases.

I disagree that they have a point because their children are mingling in highly infectious environments daily that is even more reason not to visit your parents and siblings. Schools would be a lot safer if everyone could be trusted to not be mingling with loads of others outside of them. I'm really, really putting a lot of trust in the parents of the other children in my DCs bubbles to not be breaking the rules so that our children and school staff are as safe as they possibly can be.

I really don’t want schools to close but I think they will. I think secondaries will continue with online learning throughout Jan and I think primaries will close at some point in Jan too. Dreading it.

Maybe this will help some people for context:

29, Dec 2020:
new cases by specimen date: 64,043
Hospitalized - in England only: 2,886
Deaths have been for weeks in the 4-500 range per day.

Opening schools give the virus the opportunity to spread. With these numbers where do you think we'll be in a week or a month? What will the hospitals look like?

The only way to suppress a virus is to limit it's ability to spread. The biggest single place in the UK at the moment where it is legal and mandatory to gather in poorly ventilated small rooms without PPE are schools.

At this point-imo- it is not about safer. It is about reduce numbers THEN open up in a SAFE WAY! as we should have done in Sept.

We are in way worst position than in sept and yet doing exactly the same? how is this meant to be logical, rational or sane?

@TheSunIsStillShining

Maybe this will help some people for context:

29, Dec 2020:
new cases by specimen date: 64,043
Hospitalized - in England only: 2,886
Deaths have been for weeks in the 4-500 range per day.

Opening schools give the virus the opportunity to spread. With these numbers where do you think we'll be in a week or a month? What will the hospitals look like?

The only way to suppress a virus is to limit it's ability to spread. The biggest single place in the UK at the moment where it is legal and mandatory to gather in poorly ventilated small rooms without PPE are schools.

At this point-imo- it is not about safer. It is about reduce numbers THEN open up in a SAFE WAY! as we should have done in Sept.

We are in way worst position than in sept and yet doing exactly the same? how is this meant to be logical, rational or sane?

100% it is beyond making things safe at the moment.

@SueEllenMishke so whats the answer then?? tell us..

[quote Bluebird2021]@SueEllenMishke so whats the answer then?? tell us..[/quote]
There is no immediate answer. It's really difficult. I would like the government to acknowledge this when making decisions though - that would be a start. Currently it feels like decisions are being made by people who have never had to worry about childcare.

However, I'm sick to the back teeth of people assuming those who want schools open just want an easy life, free childcare or can't be arsed to parent their children. It's ignorant and insulting. We currently live in a society where most families need two incomes to survive. We send children to school at a certain age and have created a working pattern which facilitates this.
Removing this overnight has consequences and they are being disproportionately experienced by women. It doesn't help that the type of work women tend to do is most affected by redundancies and closures or that in the majority of relationships women earn less.