Betting: when will schools be shut?

[notevenat20]

My guess is the govt will shut all schools soonish. This view is partly based on reading www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-12-31-COVID19-Report-42-Preprint-VOC.pdf

So what to do in a crisis? That’s right, betting. Here are the questions.

In which month will secondary schools next be open?

In which month will primary schools next be shut?

My votes are: March and January.

They may open primaries on the 4th but I don’t think it will last. Secondaries won’t open at all in Jan/Feb.

@starrynight19 Because some areas have considerably higher rates than others so they need to where possible shut everything down there, if the schools are closed the parents won’t have the opportunity to be mixing and arranging gatherings. I also used to teach so can completely understand concerns. At my sons nursery there have been 2 cases with children and loads amongst the staff.

@EmmanuelleMakro

I’m betting that they will reopen on 18th as planned - there will be significantly more of the age groups that would be most likely to be hospitalised vaccinated by then. People seem to have lost sight of the fact that the lockdowns/closures etc are to stop the NHS disintegrating /NOT to eradicate the virus. Even if every school child had it asymptomatically would be irrelevant to that.

Haven't lost sight at all. School kids walking around asymptomatic don't reside in school buildings permanently. They travel, go home, spread it around the community so it does impact on the NHS.

I appreciate the concerns about remote education, as I realise that remote learning in the first round of school closures varied greatly. Some things have changed since then.

Legally now schools must provide learning in the case of students isolating or school closures. This does not have to be live lessons, but it should be learning that can follow the curriculum they would've been doing.

Most schools are now far more au fait with teaching online with teachers far more confident in doing so.

Devices have been issued by the government. I know this does not reach every child but it's a start.

There are SO many opportunities for people to mix and spread the virus- they need to be limited much more ....

It doesn't seem like a long list of options to me besides closing schools. That I know of, those opportunities in Tier 4 are:

Harm would happen but Most easily could close/change these :
garden centres
zoos visitor
take-aways
estate agents
non-emergency veterinary care
some-construction
dog-grooming
some shipping, freight movements
chimney sweeps, routine electrical or plumbing work or redecorating
car-servicing, resprays
boat-building, river patrols
most manufacturing, including cars

lots of harm would result by closing/removing these
support bubbles
meeting one friend outside on your own
driving to take exercise, more than one exercise excursion/day
caring for a vulnerable person
removals, conveyancing, other moving house
most banks
paid pet sitting or dog -walking or routine care
some large non-private building routine maintenance activities
routine social worker visits
MoTs, new car sales, car hire

I presume no one says these mixing opportunities should just stop
large vehicle (eg bus) maintenance
emergency car repairs
emergency social worker visits
emergency trade activity (electricians, plumbers)
Post Office, courier collection points
corner shops
emergency veterinary care
logistics of internet shopping: pickers, packers, drivers
food factories
food shops
residential care homes
health care: hospitals or GP surgeries or rehab or hospices or palliative...
pharmacies
energy: gas supply, electricity generation
oil drilling platforms
agriculture, livestock care
zoo animal care
animal shelter care
experimental animal care (fruit flies & mice)
some large non-private building routine maintenance activities
security patrols
some construction
policing; criminal justice system, prison activity
house repairs
some shipping, freight movements
telephone/broadband network maintenance
public & hired transport: trains, buses, taxis

Has anyone not noticed that schools have been closed for 2 weeks and yet the infection rate keeps climbing?

We don't know what the infection rate is because the ONS who do the random sampling have gone on Christmas holiday and won't be publishing the next set of infection rate figures till 8th Jan.

What we do know is that the case rate through normal testing is climbing in other age groups but has dipped in children aged 5-9 and 10-19 since schools closed.

Officially, or chaotically?

I think lots of schools will close due to cases in staff over the next 2 weeks.
I don't think they will ever officially close primary schools. SCHOOLS ARE OPEN AS WE SAID THEY WOULD BE.

Given special needs schools won't ever be closing again, hopefully there will be very targeted closures in areas where the new variant and rapidly rising cases are identified.

As in the north we had to muddle on through with rates over 1000/ 100k doing the autumn term (two high peaks in my area) which particularly affected sen schools.

Many schools had to shut. Their education has been disrupted enough. We have the highest rates of poverty.

So I hope this is got under control before it hits us, again.

I presume no one says these mixing opportunities should just stop

Those mixing opportunities are all about adults though, who can follow a risk assessment and socially distance. Masks, visors, screens, one way systems, limited numbers, outdoors, PPE.

if the schools are closed the parents won’t have the opportunity to be mixing and arranging gatherings.

Oh right so it’s the parents mixing and gathering that’s causing the problems ?

That is because we don’t have the police to do it. Nor do we have the military to do it either before anyone suggests that.

I am not sure that's quite true. We have had police officers in the main railway stations before and pcso's patrolled the parks where I live in the first lockdown. It's a political decision that I probably agree with.

@notevenat20

That is because we don’t have the police to do it. Nor do we have the military to do it either before anyone suggests that.

I am not sure that's quite true. We have had police officers in the main railway stations before and pcso's patrolled the parks where I live in the first lockdown. It's a political decision that I probably agree with.

I was about to say you'd be the first to be complaining about it and stating that we need to get back to normal and what about our human rights. So why are you even asking this question?

@starrynight19 The kids aren’t organising the gatherings themselves.

@notevenat20

That is because we don’t have the police to do it. Nor do we have the military to do it either before anyone suggests that.

I am not sure that's quite true. We have had police officers in the main railway stations before and pcso's patrolled the parks where I live in the first lockdown. It's a political decision that I probably agree with.

No, we really don’t.

What we do know is that the case rate through normal testing is climbing in other age groups but has dipped in children aged 5-9 and 10-19 since schools closed.

Yes, almost as if the kids have had it and passed it on to family members who would of course present with symptoms about 10 days after the kids being ill.....

[quote designmama]@starrynight19 The kids aren’t organising the gatherings themselves.[/quote]
No Gavin Williamson is doing that.

Look, we have blithely let idiots do their xmass shopping in busy high streets and then visit granny! That is why the figures are so high, open schools and actually close costa and pets at home!

@starrynight19 I don’t understand your logic.

@Eng123

Ahh that’s why we are now in trouble. Pets at home. The penny has dropped .

@Eng123 Agreed, costa especially is not essential.

I think it's very important for schools to stay open, BUT at the same time it's going to be impossible for these tiers to be a success if you have people from different households mixing on that scale every day. So something needs to be put in place. I think online learning is actually good, provided there's a structure to it. And those who cannot learn from home could go to school, but would then have more space to distance.

@designmama I don’t understand yours either. Probably best we leave it there.

Mine - never. It's special school and they aren't ever closing.

What I don’t get is up until the now, even just before the Nov lockdown, we were being told cases were increasing and a percentage of them in a week or 2 would be admitted to hospital putting them under strain and then a percentage of those people will die due to covid, the cases are significantly higher now so why reopen schools which is likely to add to already very high cases! The NHS is already under strain 50,000 plus cases a day will only add to their strain in a couple of weeks. All schools should be shut until 18th January along with everything else that is not essential,stay at home message reinforced through media and drive infections down while at the same time ramping up vaccine delivery. This government has no idea and continue to react to the situation rather than be proactive.

Not sure the infection rates in these age groups are down to visiting pets at home or costa either.

'' they will only close the school as a last resort ''

'' THIS is the LAST RESORT''

And..

``the children don't organise these gatherings themselves' '

' 'no, gavin Williamson does' '