Betting: when will schools be shut?

[notevenat20]

My guess is the govt will shut all schools soonish. This view is partly based on reading www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-12-31-COVID19-Report-42-Preprint-VOC.pdf

So what to do in a crisis? That’s right, betting. Here are the questions.

In which month will secondary schools next be open?

In which month will primary schools next be shut?

My votes are: March and January.

They may open primaries on the 4th but I don’t think it will last. Secondaries won’t open at all in Jan/Feb.

Looks like the petition has been changed to:

Suspend fines for school non-attendance during Covid-19 & allow parental choice
The government must remove the threat of fines and further action and allow parental choice based on individual circumstances. Currently a blanket policy applies regardless of individual family risk levels from Covid-19 (for example to those who are clinically vulnerable or single parent families).

Me and DH both teachers. We think by the end of the week (Jan) all schools and childcare settings will be closed in Tier 4 (we are in London so already having closures) and won’t open again until after February half term.

@Eng123 ...er...could that be because families got together for Xmas maybe??

Me and DH both teachers. We think by the end of the week (Jan) all schools and childcare settings will be closed in Tier 4 (we are in London so already having closures) and won’t open again until after February half term.

I believe it. And presumably the rest of the country will be in tier 4 too by then.

@notevenat20

Yes at the end of the New Scientist article it points out the small sample size. So the Birmingham example could be meaningless. Except that other sources are reporting concerns about the accuracy of the lateral flow tests, based on other trials.

www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4848#:~:text=A%20false%20positive%20result%20occurred,(33.70%25%20to%2064.23%25).

I would welcome testing in schools using more reliable and easy to administer rapid tests. I'm just not convinced how practical or helpful these particular ones will be.

Would love to be proved wrong on this though - I'm desperate for the kids to be back in school properly!

The figures for lateral flow are desperately confusing. See e.g. www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-11-11-oxford-university-and-phe-confirm-lateral-flow-tests-show-high-specificity-and-are

I guess finding half the asymptomatic cases is much better than finding 0% of them course.

I think primaries will close within a few days. I very much hope they reopen after half term but I'm worried that closures could last longer than that if cases continue increasing.

The figures online for the lateral flow are all different. www.bartshealth.nhs.uk/lateral-flow says
"
The test has an overall sensitivity of 76.8% for all PCR positive individuals but detects over 95% of individuals with high viral loads."

Special schools will presumably stay open though?

Yes @lewes2

@notevenat20

Yes you're right, using them at the start of term (and detecting even one asymptomatic case) seems like a good move - doesn't matter if they are less accurate.

It's using them instead of isolating that could cause issues, if there are any false negatives. Less disruptive to education (my child missed 23 days of school this term), but potential to increase the spread within the schools.

I think they are supposed to test every day if they have been near someone positive. That should reduce the false negative rate to something very small.