Just lock us down before the vaccine!

[DinosaurDildo]

Lock us down and be done with it until Feb/March or whenever the vaccine is established. All schools off too (health trumps education).

One last shit show, then we will never have to do it again.

The light IS at the end of the tunnel. (Vaccine, hurrah).

Let’s save lives whilst we can. We never know when we may need emergency NHS treatment.

For the record I’m not privileged, and I have three young kids who in the perfect covid free world I would much prefer to be AT school.

My friend thinks we should just get on with our lives “survival of the fittest”. Well bloody good luck with your survival rhetoric when you need a hospital bed for you or your child and there isn’t one......

Anyone else agree/disagree?

I agree op

Disagree. Our numbers have dropped, we’re in tier 3. People need to work, to feed themselves and their families. Not everyone can work from home or get furlough money.

@PimlicoJo

Of course not key workers I’m a KW myself. Same lockdown as LD1. You’re delusional if you think people will suddenly start to comply with tier rules.

A lot of people are catching covid from their kids.

I hate how people presume people who are catching covid are “rule breakers”. They’re not. They are every day people going to work, school etc etc!!

Israel are doing exactly this. Lockdown 3 while they vaccinate their 1.7 million most at risk population members

Obv much smaller numbers than UK

You don't need to vaccinate the whole or even half the population. The first 2m jabs to the most elderly will reduce mortality by half - with a sizeable reduction in hospital admissions. Vaccinating everyone over 75 can reduce mortality rates by 71%.

It’s not mortality rates that are overwhelming hospitals. The problem with Covid is morbidity. I suspect vaccinating everyone over 75 has a much more minor impact on morbidity rates.

This! 100%! Lock us down until March when vaccination is well under way.

Disagree. The lockdowns are becoming far worse than Covid. We've been Tier 3 for months. And it's so depressing. And yes I've had Covid and am high risk.

Just pointing out we are already in lockdown here in Wales!

@Sertchgi123

Disagree. Our numbers have dropped, we’re in tier 3. People need to work, to feed themselves and their families. Not everyone can work from home or get furlough money.

I'm in a tier 3 area with numbers that have continued to drop too. This is because the measures are effective with the old strain of covid which is still dominant in this area. Hopefully that will remain the case and, on Machievellian grounds alone, more of a reason to reduce further spread before that particularly shitty horse bolts.

[quote DinosaurDildo]@PimlicoJo

Of course not key workers I’m a KW myself. Same lockdown as LD1. You’re delusional if you think people will suddenly start to comply with tier rules.

A lot of people are catching covid from their kids.

I hate how people presume people who are catching covid are “rule breakers”. They’re not. They are every day people going to work, school etc etc!![/quote]
So what makes you think people will comply with another lockdown?

It’s not mortality rates that are overwhelming hospitals. The problem with Covid is morbidity. I suspect vaccinating everyone over 75 has a much more minor impact on morbidity rates.

Those behind the vaccine have said the vaccine stops people getting seriously ill, so it will drastically reduce the number ending up in hospitals.

@southeastdweller

There would be no choice but to comply if the schools were off. That’s the elephant in the room here.

Even if some people did disregard the rules with their kids. It is no comparison to sitting in unventilated, packed, small classrooms! Less community spread by an absolute mile.

Crazy. The vaccine will take years to bring covid to a halt. It's not a magic bullet that's going to hit in the spring. It takes time to inoculate people. I'm not expecting to see a vaccine until midway through 2021 earliest so we can't just shut down society until then.

If they vaccinate 75% of the population at 75% effectiveness then 50% of the population are going to be protected. Of that 50%, 80% will get mild disease so 10% of the population will be at risk of serious disease. That's if the vaccine is actually 75% effective (We are mainly getting the Oxford vaccine which isnt as effective as Pfizer) and it's a big "if" they could even manage to vaccinate 75% of the population. Polls say only 2/3 of people will consent to be vaccinated.

Surely not everyone has to be vaccinated though before (mostly) normality can resume

Just the more vulnerable population and those in schools and people in places they cant reasonably socially distance..

It wont be full normality at that point but enough that we can start enjoying small gatherings, pubs and restaurants again, albeit following some covid safe rules? ..which surely is a better standard of living than letting a virus spread?

I think everything opening and mixing within guidelines can be achieved this year. If that's the case I think another lock down is worth it just to save as many lives and keeping the NHS functioning as well as possible, especially if we know a light Is at the end of the tunnel.

Pfizer vaccine is almost completely effective at protecting against illness and death owing to covid.

@ZenNudist

The vaccine might take years to bring covid to a “halt” however, it will not take years for a decent standard of living to resume.

Months, yes. Not years!

Agree op. Short term pain for long term gain. Workable with the vaccine.

If they vaccinate 75% of the population at 75% effectiveness then 50% of the population are going to be protected. Of that 50%, 80% will get mild disease so 10% of the population will be at risk of serious disease. That's if the vaccine is actually 75% effective

Just with the limited Pfizer vaccine alone and a targeted strategy for the most vulnerable in the country we can make huge in roads in hospital admissions and deaths.

www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/coronavirus/2020/12/how-covid-19-vaccines-could-rapidly-reduce-uk-s-death-rate

I do not believe things will be more sorted in February despite politicians not learning their lesson and not shutting up about when things will be "better"
We do need a lockdown in Jan to counteract the effects that Xmas mixing, non essential retail and schools have on the current figures imo.
We then have to hope for mild weather like last year so that numbers drop naturally and we can boost the numbers of vaccinated people before autumn.
We also need the Oxford vaccine approved soon. Obviously one jab and less fragile design will help the numbers of vaccinated people rise.

@LizzieSiddal - yes. But it will only decrease morbidity amongst the age group that are vaccinated - it’s not going to affect morbidity in the unvaccinated population. From what I hear, the patients who spend a long time in hospital are much younger than the 75+ age group. So until the vaccine gets as far as everyone over 50 it won’t change much. And predictions for the vaccination programme reaching that point were June/July 2021 last time I checked. We can’t just lockdown for another 6/7 months. And we certainly can’t shut schools for that long.

[quote DinosaurDildo]@southeastdweller

There would be no choice but to comply if the schools were off. That’s the elephant in the room here.

Even if some people did disregard the rules with their kids. It is no comparison to sitting in unventilated, packed, small classrooms! Less community spread by an absolute mile.[/quote]
I think you are silly to think that people will suddenly follow rules if schools close. Schools being open was not the reason people went skiing abroad or went on day trips to different tiers. I doubt most would follow a lockdown without ‘bending’ the rules either.

If we close schools & the virus still spreads like wildfire, then what?

Hain everything I’ve seen says all over 50s will be vaccinated by Easter.

From what I hear, the patients who spend a long time in hospital are much younger than the 75+ age group

Yes, at least the old die have the good grace to die quicker, I guess. But there are far fewer young people who are hospitalised by covid.

If we close schools & the virus still spreads like wildfire, then what?

It won’t spread like wildfire if we close the schools and have a full lockdown.